Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 lbotta Inc 2Q24 EPS Recap - Clean up on aisle two Key Takeaways The silver lining here is the Instacart partnership (we est'ed ~6% upside to our FY25 rev ests from CART here) should catalyze other potential 3P partners to work with IBTA as well as new brands. And in a nutshell, more/better 3P retail partnerships is why we've been constructive on IBTA from the start. So while softer ad revenue limits upside to our headline FY25 rev/EBITDA ests, looking further ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Equities Americas Healthcare Kevin Caliendo Analyst kevin.caliendo@ubs.com +1-212-713 3630 AJ Rice Analyst aj.rice@ubs.com. +1-212-713 4299 Christopher Mercado, CFA Associate Analyst christopher.mercado@ubs.com +1-212-713 1430 Andrea Alfonso Analyst andrea.alfonso@ubs.com +1-212-713 1342 Dylan Finley Associate Analyst dylan.finley@ubs.com +1-212-713-4880 US Healthcare A Look at Today's Stock Movers, News & Key Data What We Thought Was Interesting Today Today w ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Best Buy Co. Inc. A Tough Lap or A Laptop Pop? Expecting an in-line 2Q; QTD comp and category trends will be key We think the most likely case is that BBY reports 2Q EPS inline to slightly better than the consensus EPS estimate of $1.17. That said, we think the market is expecting a total enterprise comp decline slightly below initial guidance for -3% (cons. also -3.0%, our model has a -3.5%). Our checks indicate sales trends improved a bit sequentially from 1 ...

Industry Overview - Auto insurance CPI increased by 18.6% year-over-year (y/y) and 0.9% sequentially in July 2024 [1][3] - Used car prices declined by 10.9% y/y in July 2024, accelerating from -10.1% in June and -9.3% in May [4] - Auto repair cost inflation moderated to +3.4% y/y in July from +6.7% in June and +9.5% in May [4] - Medical care services inflation remained elevated at +3.3% y/y in July, consistent with June and May levels [4] Digital Advertising Trends - Digital ad spend has been trending higher, with increases observed at ALL, PGR, State Farm, and USAA, while GEICO and ROOT saw declines on a month-over-month (m/m) basis [4][17] - GEICO's digital ad spend declined y/y in June but remains up y/y for Q2 2024 [4] - PGR is increasing ad spend to drive new business, particularly in the direct distribution personal auto insurance market where GEICO is its biggest competitor [4][17] Company Performance and Outlook - Personal auto insurance margins are expected to improve throughout 2024 due to rate increases and stable to moderating loss cost inflation trends [3] - ALL and KMPR are top picks in personal lines, with expectations of improving margins and upward estimate revisions [7] - PGR is expected to gain market share in the near term by loosening underwriting restrictions faster than competitors, though growth may slow in H2 2024 due to increased competitive pressures [7] Historical Data and Trends - The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index shows used car prices down 4.8% y/y in July 2024, decelerating from -8.8% in June and -12.1% in May [10] - From 2008-2019, the Manheim Index grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +2.5% [10] - Hospital services inflation was +6.1% y/y in July, down from +6.9% in June and +7.2% in May [4]

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 UBS Payments Innovation Event Series: FinTech Conference Edition B2B Panel with Billtrust, Finexio, Mesh Payments, and ProfitSolv Equities Americas Diversified Technology Services Timothy E. Chiodo, CFA Analyst timothy.chiodo@ubs.com +1-415-352 4500 Nik Cremo Analyst nik.cremo@ubs.com. +1-415-352 6025 Justin Forsythe, CPA Analyst justin.forsythe@ubs.com +44-20-7567-4191 Taylor McGinnis Analyst taylor.mcginnis@ubs.com +1-212-713 1332 Chris Zhang, CFA Analyst ch ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 LatAm Oil & Gas LightHouse: PBR, EC, YPF, RRRP, RECV, RAIZ, SMTO, TTEN, ORBIA, Fuel Dist. (3x), Agri. (2x), Global Oil Integrated and Junior E&P: PBR, EC, YPF, RRRP, RECV PBR: Government participates in Petrobras' strategic decisions. EC: We published a report on Ecopetrol's 2Q24 earnings result; see "Strong output now, but challenging horizons". YPF: CEO expects Vaca Muerta Sur (VMS) oil pipeline to be the first RIGI investment. RRRP: Jive Investments holds a ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TOTVS is Neutral, with a price target of R$33.50, implying a ~24x multiple to 2025E earnings [16]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Linx by TOTVS is seen as strategically positive, as it complements TOTVS' portfolio and could unlock new growth avenues, particularly in the TechFin vertical [4][7]. - Linx's current monetization is only 0.3% of its estimated R$350 billion GMV, indicating significant room for expansion [3]. - The integration of Linx's software solutions into TOTVS' offerings will require adaptation for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), which may necessitate further investments [3][4]. Summary by Sections TOTVS and Linx Acquisition - The CEO of TOTVS stated that acquiring Linx remains strategic, as Linx's capabilities complement TOTVS' offerings [1]. - Linx was acquired by Stone in 2020 for R$6.8 billion, and the integration has been ongoing since then [1][2]. Market Position and Client Base - Linx serves approximately 70,000 mid-large retailers with a GMV of R$300 billion, providing a new client base for TOTVS [1]. - Most of Linx's clients are larger enterprises, with only 11% being SMBs, which presents a challenge for scaling Linx's solutions to TOTVS' typical client base [3][4]. Financial Metrics and Growth Potential - The average monthly ticket for clients using Linx's ERP/POS software is R$160, supporting the potential for increased cross-selling opportunities [2]. - The report highlights that 50% of Linx's sub-acquiring clients have migrated to Stone, indicating successful integration efforts [2]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The valuation for Stone is based on a 2025E PE target multiple of 11x, reflecting the broader economic environment and regulatory changes impacting the Brazilian financial sector [8]. - The report suggests that TOTVS could benefit from future cross-selling of Business Performance solutions to Linx's customer base [4].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Cardinal Health Inc. Caliendo's Conference Call Commentary ● General Takeaways: Management provided additional color underlying the improved FY25 Pharma EBIT outlook and steady FY25 GMPD EBIT guidance. Within Pharma, guidance calls for y/y EBIT improvement of +1-3% with consistent generic market dynamics, a greater contribution from brand/specialty products, a modest y/y headwind from COVID vaccine, and cost optimization. On GMPD, CAH did not seem overly conce ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Victoria's Secret & Co CEO Appointment as Positive Market Likely to see 2Q EPS Upside and What happened: VSCO pre-announced above-consensus 2Q EPS... VSCO pre-announced 2Q24 results and now anticipates $0.34-$0.39 EPS, above its prior $0.05-$0.20 outlook. We note the Street has been modeling $0.16 Q2 EPS. Within its new Q2 outlook, VSCO expects net sales to be down 1-2% vs. prior down 1-3% y/y. VSCO also raised its Q2 EBIT dollar guidance to $57-$62 ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Equities UBS Railroads Weekly Volume +3.6% In Week 32; Western Rails Volume Growth Driven By Recent Shift of IM Volumes Americas Railroads Thomas Wadewitz Analyst thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com +1-212-713 6116 Michael Triano Analyst michael.triano@ubs.com +1-212-713 3822 Michael DiMattia Analyst michael.dimattia@ubs.com +1-617-748 5628 Volume up +3.6% y/y in Wk 32; Stacked was down -1.3% Volumes in Week 32 rose +3.6% y/y, following +3.5% growth in Week 31 and +2.9% g ...