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J P M O R G A N Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy 07 October 2024 An Analysis of Cross Asset Liquidity Conditions 3Q24 Update - An inclusion of China equities • In this note, we provide an update on the liquidity conditions across asset classes, including US, Europe and Japanese equities, bonds and FX, and major Commodities markets including Oil, Gold and Copper. Market depth, in our definition, represents the market order imbalance required to move the market by 1% within a short period of time (e ...

M Update Greater China Materials | Asia Pacific October 7, 2024 09:00 PM GMT Takeaways From Uranium Mine Trips in Kazakhstan Lack of cheap sulfuric acid and value-over-volume strategy may lead to continued disciplined supply from the country, while production cost increase seems inevitable. We attended Kazatomprom's (KAP, the largest uranium producer globally) mine tour and visited its Karasssan 2 (under Biken-U JV) and Kharassan 1 (under Khorasan- U JV) mines in Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan, and communicated with ...

M Global Idea Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts Next-12-Months Snapshot: Growth Resilience October 7, 2024 08:46 PM GMT Next-12-Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Calibrating the Fed Reaction Function: We continue to expect moderate growth and disinflation around the world. We expect two consecutive 25bp cuts this year after seeing Powell recognize a balanced economy. Risks to the outlook will depend on the labor market. Ex-US, the rest of the global economy is holding up. We maintain our BoJ ca ...

M Idea Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific October 7, 2024 09:00 PM GMT Focus List Changes – APxJ and GEM Source: Morgan Stanley Research We add Santos (STO.AX), CapitaLand Investment Ltd (CAPN.SI), Tenaga Nasional (TENA.KL), Link REIT (0823.HK) to our APxJ Focus List, and add Petrobras (PBR.N) and Midea Group Co Ltd. (000333.SZ) to our GEM Focus List. Adding CapitaLand Investment Ltd (CAPN.SI) to our APxJ Focus List for more positive exposure to lower rates. It is our analyst Wilson Ng's Top Pick and vi ...

Investment Ratings - The report provides a cautious investment rating for the South Korea technology sector and an in-line rating for the Japan semiconductor sector [1][5]. Core Insights - The cyclical downturn in the memory sector is now a certainty, indicating no further upside potential [5]. - Chinese DRAM is projected to account for 15% of global capacity by the end of 2025, with DRAM capital expenditure expected to return to historical highs in 2024 and 2025 [7]. - The report highlights significant growth in GPU volumes, with NVIDIA's GPU volume expected to increase from 1,474 thousand units in 2023 to 11,673 thousand units by 2027, representing a CAGR of 68% [9]. Summary by Sections Memory Market Dynamics - DRAM supply levels have returned to historical peaks, with a 22% increase in DRAM wafer starts in 2022 [6]. - The total HBM market is projected to grow from $4 billion in 2023 to $82 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 107% [9]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the competitive landscape for semiconductor production equipment, noting that Tokyo Electron holds a 90% market share in core coaters/developers [37]. - The adoption timeline for CoW/WoW technologies indicates rapid growth in HBM applications since early 2010s, with significant business opportunities projected for the coming years [21][22]. Company Ratings and Preferences - The report lists preferred companies in the memory sector, with Western Digital and Samsung Electronics rated as overweight, while SK Hynix and others are rated underweight [13]. - The market cap and current prices for these companies indicate potential upside, with Western Digital showing a 42% upside potential based on current price targets [13].

M Idea China Industrials | Asia Pacific October 7, 2024 08:00 PM GMT Thoughts on Rally: Where Are Stocks Trading at Now? Stocks have jumped since the policy pivot. We look at current valuations vs. comparable cycles to provide a reference to valuation ranges under different scenarios of policy rollouts. Key Takeaways We think 2016-19 could be the most comparable period for valuation reference, given the macro environment, stimulus policy and industrial cycle. In the base case scenario of a modest initial fi ...

M Idea China Industrials | Asia Pacific October 7, 2024 08:00 PM GMT 3Q24 Preview – Transportation Equipment We expect railway equipment earnings to be in line with consensus, with steady revenue and NP growth from ongoing MU delivery and solid maintenance. HDT players' results are likely to be weak, with muted industry demand and margin pressure from product mix, but should improve q-q in 4Q. Heavy-duty trucks Weak 3Q earnings given domestic demand softness and fading LNG HDT momentum: 3Q HDT sales turned ...

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