香港交易所(00388):上季盈利强劲,维持"增持"评级 摩根大通 摩根大通发布研报称，香港交易所(415.4,3.20,0.78%)(00388)公布2025年第四季净利润43亿港元，按季 下跌12%，同比增长15%，较该行预期高出19%。该行预期股价将走强，维持对港交所的"增持"评级，目标价 540港元。 2025财年全年纯利178亿港元，同比升36%，较市场预期高2%。业绩优于预期主要受收入带动。交易及结算 费收入按季跌幅(-14%/-16%)较该行预期温和，尽管成交量呈季节性疲弱(现货股票日均成交额按季跌21%)。此 等收入抵销了表现逊于预期的托管费及市场数据费。盈利受惠于非上市股权投资估值录得1.63亿港元非经常性 收益，以及港交所企业资金回报提升，足以抵销自去年10月起向市场参与者调整旗下结算所向其参与者支付的 现金抵押品利息的计算方法，并下调对非现金抵押品的融通费用的影响。上述因素带动净投资收益表现强劲 (12亿港元，按季升20%)，成为业绩优于预期的主要原因。值得留意的是，即使撇除1.63亿港元收益，除税前 利润50亿港元仍录得同比16%增长，较该行预测高出15%。成本管控符合预期，总开支同比 ...

资产质量方面，小摩认为香港商业房地产资产质量趋于稳定，第二阶段贷款按季减少，第三阶段贷款按季 持平。随着香港住宅市场改善，以及香港商业房地产第三阶段贷款的拨备及资本覆盖率达74%，相信对盈利的 拖累正逐步减轻。 至于吸纳恒生银行(154.3,0.00,0.00%)(HSNGY.US)方面，集团目标至2028年实现9亿美元效益，包括3亿美 元成本节省、2亿美元收入协同效应，以及4亿美元的额外收入及成本优化。小摩估算此举将为2028年ROTE增加 约40个基点。 摩根大通发布研报称，汇丰控股(145,2.30,1.61%)(00005)公布去年业绩，预期汇率将有正面反应，因集 团去年第四季收入及基本税前利润分别较市场预期高3%及9%，普通股权一级资本比率(CET1)为14.9%，亦较市 场预期高20个基点。小摩预期市场对汇控每股盈利预测上调中至高单位数，而股份回购或较先前指引的2026年 第二季提早至第一季恢复;维持对汇控"增持"评级，目标价165港元。 另外，集团更新未来三年有形股东权益回报率(ROTE)指引为17%或以上，高于原先指引的中双位数，并高 于市场预期。集团料至2028年收入增长达5%，亦高于小摩及 ...

东鹏饮料(09980):首次覆盖,评级"增持"目标价315港元 摩根大通 摩根大通发布研报称，首次覆盖东鹏饮料(09980)，相信其在中国市场份额的增长将带领其持续超越同 业。据公司2025年初步业绩预测，2025年第四季度收入和核心净利润的平均增长率分别为25%和16%，对于2026 年，该行预料，能量饮料、运动饮料和其他产品将分别同比升15%、42%和50%，以支撑总收入同比增长22%。该 行给予其目标价为315港元，评级为"增持"。 ...

三花智控(02050):升目标价至45港元,续予"增持"评级 摩根大通 摩根大通发布研报称，根据三花智控(02050)管理层的最新指引及全年业绩预告胜于预期，该行将公司目 标价由42港元上调至45港元，又将三花智控(002050.SH)A股目标价由49元人民币升至64元人民币，继续给 予"增持"评级。 小摩表示，将三花智控2025至2027年的盈测调升5%，以反映人形机器人领域加快发展的机遇。该行认为， 由于公司的业绩表现稳健，加上今年将获得多重利好因素，相信公司的A股及H股回调为市场带来理想的买入时 机。 ...

国泰航空(00293):升评级至"增持",目标价一举升至18港元 小摩认为，随着国泰利用其网络优势、资本自律性巩固在区域内的领导地位，股价具上涨潜力，正将目标 价的设定方法由市账率(PB)切换至企业价值对税息折旧及摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA)比率，以反映行业盈利能见 度提升及利润可持续性改善。 摩根大通 摩根大通发布研报称，亚洲全服务航空业正步入盈利可见性及利润率韧性兼备的新时代，国泰航空 (13.43,0.07,0.52%)(00293)正引领着区域的复苏与增长。因其收益于需求强劲、具纪律的运力管理及较早实 现资产负债表正常化;且有望从行业供给紧张、亚太区交通量增长强劲及灵活调配运力至最具吸引力市场的能 力中获益，将国泰的目标倍数定为6倍，目标价从9.1港元大幅升至18港元，蕴含约40%上升空间，评级从"中 性"升至"增持"。 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades ASMPT's rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight" and raises the target price from HKD 76 to HKD 125 [1] Core Insights - The upgrade is based on strong capital expenditure trends in the advanced logic packaging sector and initial signs of improvement in the mainstream outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) market [1] - The bank has increased its earnings per share forecasts for ASMPT for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 7% and 15%, respectively [1] - ASMPT is expected to raise its long-term total addressable market size for thermal compression bonding (TCB) equipment and shows confidence in gaining more market share in this area [1] - The company is set to provide further updates on its progress in the high bandwidth memory (HBM) thermal compression bonding market, noting that the capital expenditure environment in China and among mainstream OSAT vendors is becoming more favorable [1]

MINIMAX-WP(00100):首予"超配"评级,全球化AI先锋,引领下一波价值浪潮 摩根大通 据截止2月10日午盘收盘，MiniMax（00100）股价在港股一度上涨10.7%，其驱动因素之于源于摩根大通近 日研报的首次覆盖。 摩根大通近日首次覆盖港股上市公司MiniMax，给予"超配"（Overweight）评级，并设定700港元的目标 价，较当前股价具备约36%的上行空间。报告指出，MiniMax凭借其稀缺的全球化基因与领先的技术实力，已成 为投资者把握2030年全球人工智能市场——预计规模将达1.4万亿美元——的关键入口。 自今年1月初上市以来，MiniMax股价已飙升逾230%，盘中最高触及599.5港元。 作为中国最具辨识度的独立大模型企业之一，MiniMax正加速推进其全球业务布局。目前，公司超过70%的 营收来自海外市场，API服务随着全球开发者生态的快速拓展而迅猛增长。摩根大通分析师OliviaXu团队指 出："这种高度国际化的收入结构不仅有效实现营收多元化、提升整体利润率，更彰显了MiniMax在全球AI竞 争格局中的真实竞争力。"技术层面，MiniMax的M2.1大模型在编程能力与智 ...

中集安瑞科(03899):料印尼项目最多贡献7,000万人民币利润,予"增持"评级 该行预期有关进展将进一步提振市场对公司的情绪，因项目反映公司新业务举措的海外扩张正从愿景迈向 实际执行阶段。同时，该项目是公司第5个焦炉煤气项目，增强了其长远持续增长的能见度，缓解了投资者先 前对于净利润增长放缓的忧虑，因公司的三项新业务均为项目制(project-based)。 摩根大通 摩根大通发布研报称，中集安瑞科(11.71,-0.33,-2.74%)(03899)公布其在印尼的首个海外焦炉煤气项 目。该行估计，若项目达至最高产能，可为公司贡献约7,000万元人民币的利润，约占2025财年预测净利润的 6%;现予中集安瑞科"增持"评级，目标价12港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the KR Defense sector, particularly highlighting Hyundai Rotem and Hanwha Aerospace as key players with strong order momentum and growth potential [1][4][5]. Core Insights - Hyundai Rotem is expected to announce a significant Poland EC2 contract valued at approximately $6 billion, which includes 180 K2 tanks and local production initiatives [4]. - Hanwha Aerospace has secured an L-SAM II project order worth W199 billion, enhancing its capabilities in Korea's air defense systems [5]. - Hitachi's recent investor day revealed a net debt/EBITDA leverage of 1-2x and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12-15%, indicating a stable financial position [1]. Detailed Highlights - **KR Defense**: Hyundai Rotem's anticipated Poland EC2 orders are a strong catalyst for growth, with investor confidence reflected in recent share price rallies [4]. Hanwha Aerospace's order win for the L-SAM II project and the approval of the Austal acquisition position it well for future projects [5]. - **Japan Auto**: Hino Motors and Mitsubishi Fuso have finalized a merger agreement with Toyota and Daimler, aiming to create synergies in the commercial vehicle segment [6]. Stanley Electric's guidance for FY25 was weaker than expected, but a large-scale share buyback was announced [6]. - **Mitsubishi Electric**: The company is focusing on digital transformation and has allocated a new M&A budget of ¥1 trillion to support its business model transformation [8]. Sector Key Newsflow - The J.P. Morgan EU Industrial Conference highlighted strong interest in electrification, data centers, and defense sectors, indicating a shift in investor focus [5][7]. - The merger between Hino and Mitsubishi Fuso is expected to yield significant benefits despite potential dilution from new share issuance [6]. - Investors are cautiously optimistic about the Asia FA & Robotics sector, with expectations of limited downside amid potential trade deals between China and the US [10]. Catalyst Calendar - Key upcoming events include the Hitachi Investor Day and the launch of the Xpeng G7 SUV, which are expected to attract significant investor attention [15].

Investment Rating - The report rates Mizuho as Overweight (OW), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) as Neutral (N), and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) as Neutral (N) [2][3][6]. Core Insights - Mizuho is projected to be the only mega bank with a return on equity (ROE) exceeding 11% [3][6]. - The report indicates a downgrade for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (CRCB) to Neutral due to a decline in dividend attractiveness following a 46% year-to-date rally [11]. - A survey of over 500 investors at the Asia Credit Conference suggests a majority expect the US 10-year yield to exceed 4% by the end of 2025 [15]. Detailed Highlights - Mizuho is the only mega bank forecasted to achieve an ROE above 11%, with a CET1 target of 10% and plans for accelerated buybacks [3][6]. - The Japan Consumer Finance sector is experiencing rising revolving credit card interest rates, now reaching the regulatory ceiling of 18%, while demand remains resilient despite inflation [6][7]. - The dividend yield for CRCB is now 4.3%, which is less attractive compared to peers, following its inclusion in the CSI300 Index [11][12]. Sector Key Newsflow - The report highlights that major players in Japan's consumer finance are raising interest rates on revolving credit cards to the regulatory limit, with Credit Saison leading the way [7][8]. - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to continue its quantitative tightening (QT) at a pace of -Y400 billion per quarter beyond Q2 2026, with potential adjustments based on market conditions [6][7]. - The report notes that the overall dividend play in the banking sector is becoming less attractive, particularly for CRCB, as improvements are already priced in [11].