Summary of Key Takeaways from the 2025 AHR Expo Industry Overview - The report focuses on the HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) industry, particularly the transition to A2L refrigerants and the impact on major players in the market, including Lennox International Inc. (LII) [1][2]. Core Insights 1. **Pricing Discipline During A2L Transition**: Pricing is expected to remain disciplined as the industry transitions to A2L refrigerants, which are more environmentally friendly [1]. 2. **OEM Performance Variability**: Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and suppliers have varied capabilities in managing the A2L transition, with some performing better than others [1]. 3. **Positioning of US HVAC OEMs**: Large US HVAC OEMs are well-positioned to benefit from upcoming Mega project investments in the US [1]. Company-Specific Insights: Lennox International Inc. (LII) 1. **Market Positioning**: LII is recovering from past challenges and is strategically positioned to expand its market share, particularly in national accounts and emergency replacement markets [2]. 2. **Product Showcase**: Key products highlighted include: - **Model L Series**: A 20-ton unit with the lowest cost of ownership in the industry, popular among K-12 institutions. - **Enlight Rooftop Series**: A 10-ton unit with dual fuel options experiencing over 50% growth last year. - **Xion**: A product aimed at reclaiming market share in the emergency replacement market [2][5]. 3. **Transition to New Refrigerants**: LII plans to phase out 410A units by Q1 2025 and transition to 454B in Q2, which is expected to positively impact pricing and product mix [5]. 4. **National Accounts and Capacity Constraints**: Only two national accounts have secured the new A2L Model L product due to capacity constraints, but this is expected to ramp up in the second half of the year [5]. 5. **Emergency Replacement Market**: LII currently holds less than 5% of the emergency replacement market, with ambitions to grow to mid to high-teens percentage over the next three years [5]. Financial Outlook - **Price Target**: The 12-month price target for LII is set at $716, reflecting a 23% implied upside based on a valuation of 20.5 times projected EBITDA [2][5]. Key Risks 1. **Residential Replacement Demand**: A potential slowdown in residential replacement demand could impact growth [6]. 2. **Commercial Market Softness**: Tighter credit conditions may lead to softness in the commercial market [6]. 3. **Refrigerant Pricing Realization**: There is a risk that pricing realization on the refrigerant change may not fully materialize [6]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of logistics in the emergency replacement market, noting that fast quoting and quick delivery are critical for success [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the HVAC industry dynamics and Lennox International's strategic positioning and outlook.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on various markets, specifically focusing on the US, Europe, and Japan, highlighting the uncertainty created by tariff announcements and their implications for economic growth and profitability [2][13][14]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs have introduced significant uncertainty affecting disinflation paths, growth prospects, the yield curve, and the dollar. The focus for investors has shifted towards profitability from quality factors [2][13]. - **Market Resilience**: Stocks with higher domestic revenue exposure are more resilient to market shocks caused by tariffs, outperforming the broader market during periods of tariff announcements [13][40]. - **Economic Cycle Update**: The economic cycle in the US has shifted from 'recovery' to 'expansion', while the inflation regime in Japan has changed from 'stable' to 'rising' [5][6][24]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The Federal Reserve is expected to implement only one rate cut in June 2025, down from previous expectations of two cuts, due to ongoing tariff uncertainties [13][24]. Regional Insights United States - **Recommended Factors**: The recommended investment factors include Low PEG, R&D-to-market cap, and Profitability. These factors have shown reduced sensitivity to changes in the 10-year Treasury yield, indicating potential resilience in a volatile market [45][46]. - **Market Beta**: The market beta for top quintile stocks in these factors has decreased, suggesting they may be more resilient during market corrections [46]. Europe - **Recommended Factors**: Key factors include Up vs. Down earnings revision (3ma), Free Cash Flow Yield, and Net Buyback Yield. These factors have shown defensive characteristics, particularly in weak market conditions [57][58]. - **Market Performance**: The MSCI Europe index is close to the strategist's price target, with tariffs posing downside risks [58]. Japan - **Recommended Factors**: The focus is on Net Buyback Yield, Disfavoring Small Size, and Low PEG. The emphasis is on domestic factors that are less affected by tariffs, with a positive outlook on corporate governance improvements [67][68]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that long-term yields in Japan have risen sharply, which is generally unfavorable for smaller firms [68]. Additional Important Insights - **Volatility Analysis**: The report highlights increased volatility in equity markets following tariff announcements, with significant fluctuations observed in the VIX, VSTOXX, and VNKY indices [15][19]. - **Performance Metrics**: The analysis of factor performance on the first trading day after the tariff announcement showed that Low Volatility and Large Cap stocks outperformed, while the performance of Growth vs. Value was less clear [31][41]. - **Tariff Resilience Screening**: A stock screening process was developed to identify stocks likely to be resilient amidst tariff-related market shocks, with results indicating outperformance compared to respective markets [78][80]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics influenced by tariffs and economic conditions across different regions.

V i e w p o i n t | 06 Feb 2025 12:06:57 ET │ 20 pages Emerging Markets Economics EM Under "America First Trade Policy": What's Next, Who's Exposed? wei.zheng.kit@citi.com CITI'S TAKE Early weeks of Trump's 2nd administration show greater uncertainty, bolder (and less targeted) tariff threats, a US foreign policy that appears more assertive, and China showing signs it wants to negotiate. What's next? We assess impact of targeted tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and steel & aluminum. We also asses ...

V i e w p o i n t | 06 Feb 2025 09:40:02 ET │ 11 pages China Economics Gauging US Business Exposure to China Amid Trade Dispute CITI'S TAKE China has announced an anti-trust probe into Google. This comes in the wake of US imposing 10% additional tariffs on imports from China. We note that Google has a limited business presence in China. However, business activities of US multinational enterprises (MNEs) in China are likely to be of greater importance to the US than its exports to China – US MNEs generated > ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Americas Sustainability** sector, particularly in the context of **decarbonization** and **renewable energy** initiatives as of January 2025 [9][11][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Decarbonization Goals**: UBS is actively seeking investment opportunities in the clean energy and decarbonization space, emphasizing companies that are rated as "Buy" and have significant earnings growth tied to decarbonization efforts [9][10]. - **Demand for Renewables**: Despite uncertainties regarding policies and tax credits, demand for utility-scale renewables is expected to remain high due to corporate sustainability targets and a backlog of projects [9][10]. - **Pricing Environment**: As demand for renewables outpaces supply, a challenging pricing environment for consumers is anticipated, leading to increased investments in efficiency measures [9][10]. - **Utilities Focus**: The report highlights utilities that are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for carbon-free energy, including companies like Constellation Energy Corporation and NextEra Energy, which are major players in the clean energy market [9][12]. - **Nuclear Energy**: Existing nuclear assets are expected to remain operational longer than initially planned, necessitating capital expenditure upgrades. There is a potential for a nuclear renaissance driven by data center demand and corporate commitments to low-carbon energy sources [9][54]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Data Center Demand**: The growth of data centers is projected to drive a 3% to 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for load growth in key markets, which could lead to peak conditions defined by a sub-15% reserve margin [29][45]. - **Corporate Renewable Commitments**: Major corporations like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are committing to 100% renewable power, significantly influencing the demand for utility-scale solar projects [45]. - **Investment in Water Management**: The report indicates a growing focus on water management due to aging infrastructure and regulations, which may present investment opportunities in the water economy [71]. - **Legislative Environment**: The impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on job growth and the potential for bipartisan support for renewable initiatives are discussed, highlighting the evolving political landscape affecting the energy sector [62]. Current Decarb Universe - A list of companies with significant exposure to decarbonization efforts is provided, including Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Trane Technologies (TT), and First Solar (FSLR), among others [10][12][79]. Conclusion - The report underscores the critical role of decarbonization in shaping the future of the energy sector, with a strong emphasis on renewable energy, nuclear power, and the influence of corporate commitments on market dynamics. The evolving landscape presents both opportunities and challenges for investors in the sustainability space [9][54][62].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 11:17 AM GMT M Update Geely Automobile Holdings | Asia Pacific Ambitious 2025 target | shuinu9870 | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一 | | | M 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Tim Hsiao Equity Analyst Tim.Hsiao@morganstanley.com +852 2848-1982 Cindy.Huang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3568 shuinu9870 | | | | Update | | | | | January 2, 2025 11:17 AM ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 1 January 2025 | 9:50PM EST Americas Technology: Security 2025 Repositioning: NET to Buy, CHKP to Neutral Security stock performance in 2024 can almost entirely be explained by one factor: to what extent the market believed each company is a platform vs. a point product. The best mid-to-large cap performers in our coverage were FTNT (+63%), CRWD (+37%) and NET (+31%); the worst performers were OKTA (-12%), ZS (-17%) and S (-18%). PANW (+25%), and CHKP (+23%) each performed more ...

Figure 41: MP Days to Cover vs Share Price 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 MP Days to cover - last = 5.3 1yr Avg. = 8.2 Share Px ($/sh - RHS) Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|------------------|-----------------------|----------|-------|------------|--------------------------------|--------|----------------|--------|-------------- ...

19 December 2024 6 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 Goldman Sachs Americas Media | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|--------|----------------|------------------------|--------|-----------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------|-------|---------------------------------------|-------|-------------------------------------|---- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 12 December 2024 | 3:13AM EST shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Americas Transportation 2025 Outlook: Manufacturing Output Key to Unlocking Better Mix and Operational Torque shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： For Transport Outlook 2025, we primarily remain focused on more asset intensive names to reflect the most potential for operational leve ...