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My Top Picks For A Recession: Up To 8% Yield
HRHealthcare Realty Trust rporated(HR) Seeking Alpha·2024-08-20 12:15

Economic Outlook - The likelihood of a recession is increasing due to weakening consumer conditions, including depleted pandemic-era savings, low personal savings rates, and record-high credit card debt [1][3][4] - Historical trends indicate that recessions typically follow significant increases in interest rates, which have reached multi-decade highs [4][5] Investment Opportunities - Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are highlighted as resilient investments during recessionary periods, historically outperforming the S&P 500 and providing better downside protection [6][24] - Specific REITs, such as NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) and Healthcare Realty Trust, are identified as having strong fundamentals that may allow them to thrive in a recession [7][15] NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) - NLCP focuses on cannabis cultivation facilities with long leases, strong rent coverage, and zero leverage, making it potentially recession-resistant [8][9] - The REIT offers an attractive 8.5% dividend yield and has a history of growing funds from operations (FFO) per share and dividends [10][12] - NLCP's properties are located in limited-license jurisdictions with growing demand, ensuring sustainable rental income [9][11] Healthcare Realty Trust - Healthcare Realty Trust specializes in medical office buildings, which are expected to perform well during recessions due to consistent demand for healthcare services [14][15] - The REIT has a solid balance sheet with a manageable debt load and is actively engaging in asset sales to fund share buybacks, enhancing cash flow and dividend sustainability [22][23] - The expected dividend yield is around 7%, combined with projected annual cash flow growth of approximately 5%, leading to strong total returns [23]