Blue Bird Pre-Q1 Earnings: Should You Park Your Cash in BLBD Now?

Earnings and Financial Performance - Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is set to release fiscal Q1 2025 results on Feb 5, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of 83 cents per share on revenues of $355 million [1] - The Q1 2025 earnings estimate has remained unchanged over the past 60 days, indicating an 8.8$1.5 billion, implying an 11% year-over-year increase, with earnings projected at $3.88 per share, suggesting a 12$1.4 billion and $1.5 billion for fiscal 2025, compared to$1.35 billion in fiscal 2024, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $190 million to$210 million [7][8] Business and Market Position - Blue Bird's Q1 results are expected to reflect robust demand for school buses, with over 4,800 units in its order backlog at the end of Q4 2024, including around 630 electric school buses [6] - The company is a pioneer in alternative fuel and electric-powered school buses, with over 90% of U S school buses still running on diesel, indicating significant growth potential for cleaner alternatives [14] - Blue Bird has successfully enhanced operations, increased production efficiency, and driven new order growth, solidifying its leadership in alternative-powered buses [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, Blue Bird's shares have declined 27%, underperforming the industry, sector, S&P 500, and other EV players like Tesla and Rivian [9] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month sales multiple of 0.81, higher than its 5-year median but lower than the industry's 2.44, with a Value Score of A [12] Financial Health and Risk Factors - Blue Bird has a strong balance sheet with $127 million in cash against$90 million in long-term debt, and a disciplined approach to cost management [16] - The company's dependence on subsidies and grants presents a potential risk, as reduced government support could impact growth, particularly given the political uncertainty around EV policies [15]