国金证券：如何看待转折期时白酒配置价值？

Core Viewpoint - The current recovery in the liquor industry is based on a stabilization of market conditions, with a potential for further improvement driven by policy changes expected in September 2024 [1] Industry Analysis - The report highlights a similarity between the current market conditions and the previous turning point from 2011 to 2016, indicating a bottoming out and waiting for a right-side recovery catalyst [1] - The recent feedback from the Spring Festival has confirmed that the industry's performance is entering a phase of slowing decline, akin to the situation in 2015, which marked a mid-term turning point [1] - The ongoing Two Sessions and the rollout of consumer-related policies are accelerating market expectations for recovery, similar to the trends observed in 2016 [1] Investment Recommendations - The current market has not fully priced in the recovery expectations, with cautious forecasts for mid-term EPS of liquor companies and the price expectations for Feitian Moutai [1] - The potential for aggressive investment in the liquor sector stems from the certainty of the recovery itself, indicating that the current market rally may extend beyond initial expectations [1]