SINOLINK SECURITIES(600109) 智通财经·2025-03-27 07:29Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery sector is expected to experience a BETA-level market driven by both industry prosperity and new technologies by 2025, with a focus on overseas capital expansion and price increases in specific segments [1] Industry Changes - Lithium prices as of March 21: lithium carbonate at 74,000 yuan/ton (down 0.9% MoM) and lithium hydroxide at 70,000 yuan/ton (down 0.4% MoM) [1] - In February 2025, domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 830,000 units, a YoY increase of 79.6% but a MoM decrease of 6.7%; cumulative sales for January-February were 1.72 million units, up 48% YoY [1] Market Performance - Since March 2025, half of the lithium-related sectors have outperformed the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices, with copper foil, auto parts, and Tesla concepts showing significant gains of 12%, 8%, and 5% respectively compared to the CSI 300 [2] - Monthly transaction volumes in various segments have increased significantly, with high attention on energy storage, humanoid robots, Tesla concepts, charging piles, solid-state batteries, auto parts, and low-altitude economy [2] - Current valuation levels for solid-state batteries, lithium mines, and lithium battery copper foil are relatively low compared to historical levels, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2] Research Focus - Lithium sulfide accounts for nearly 70% of the cost in solid-state batteries, with current market prices exceeding 5 million yuan/ton; high costs and early patent layouts by Japanese and Korean companies are key challenges for industrialization [3] - Domestic companies like Enjie (002812) are adopting solid-phase processes to avoid patent issues and reduce reliance on high-cost materials, potentially leading to early industrial application of lithium sulfide [3] Industry Insights - In February 2025, new energy vehicle sales in China and Europe showed strong growth, with sales of 829,000 and 199,000 units respectively, reflecting YoY increases of 80% and 27% [4] - In February 2025, domestic energy storage installations reached 3 GWh, a YoY increase of 192%, while cumulative installations for January-February were 11 GWh, up 58% YoY [4] Production Tracking - In March, lithium battery production is expected to see a MoM change of 2% to 23% and a YoY growth of 11% to 75%, maintaining a high prosperity outlook [5] - The price of cobalt has surged nearly 60% since the beginning of 2025, driving up prices in the positive electrode and cell segments, while negative electrode raw material costs have decreased by 21% [5]