Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 25.82 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.65 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 revenue was 5.46 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.5%, with net profit down 34.7%, falling short of market expectations [1] Revenue Breakdown - By product: Revenue from gypsum board was 13.11 billion yuan (-4.8%), metal framework 2.29 billion yuan (-0.1%), waterproof membrane 3.32 billion yuan (+19.2%), waterproof engineering 0.41 billion yuan (-8.1%), and coatings 4.14 billion yuan (+328.0%). The gypsum board business remained stable, while the waterproof and coatings segments showed significant growth potential [1] - By region: Revenue from northern China was 8.24 billion yuan (-7.5%), southern China 12.63 billion yuan (+35.8%), western China 4.54 billion yuan (+13.4%), and overseas 0.42 billion yuan (+87.6%). The impact of acquisitions on regional revenue was significant, with overseas revenue growth being particularly impressive [1] - By channel: Direct sales generated 3.20 billion yuan (+45.7%) and distribution sales 22.62 billion yuan (+11.8%) [1] Profitability Analysis - Overall gross margin remained stable year-on-year, with gypsum board gross margin slightly increasing by 0.02 percentage points to 38.5%. The gross margin for waterproof membranes decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 17.1%, while coatings increased by 2.7 percentage points to 31.9% [2] - The sales expense ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points to 5.6%, primarily due to higher sales expenses in the coatings business and acquisitions. Management and financial expense ratios remained stable, leading to a comprehensive expense ratio increase of 1.9 percentage points [2] - The net sales margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 14.4%, indicating slight pressure on profitability [2] Business Strategy and Outlook - The company adheres to a "one body, two wings, global layout" strategy, enhancing brand building and promoting national expansion. It has expanded product categories with new offerings in gypsum board and integrated coatings and waterproof products into a comprehensive home decoration system [3] - The company is focusing on global expansion in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, with significant progress in overseas projects. The company is strategically positioned in the gypsum board sector and is following up with waterproof and coatings industries [3] - The company aims to enhance core competitiveness through internal growth and acquisitions, having completed the restructuring of Jia Baoli and expanded its coatings capacity nationwide. The current recovery in the real estate market and supportive policies are expected to benefit the company significantly as a leading player in gypsum board, waterproofing, and coatings [3] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.63 yuan, 3.11 yuan, and 3.62 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11x, 9x, and 8x respectively. The company’s comprehensive competitiveness is strong, and the effectiveness of its "one body, two wings" strategy is notable, leading to a positive outlook on earnings elasticity [3]
北新建材(000786):石膏板基本盘坚实 两翼布局延续高增