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财政"万亿级"弹药就位!基建复苏打响估值修复战,建材ETF(159745)锁仓顺周期龙头
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-11 09:28
当前基建投资正成为托底经济的重要抓手,财政政策持续发力下,建材板块迎来由基建复苏驱动的配置窗口期。随着"十四五"规划进入收官之年,重大工程 项目加速落地,基建对建材需求的拉动效应正从预期走向现实,为行业基本面改善提供坚实支撑。 2024年下半年以来,积极财政政策明显加码,专项债发行节奏提速、超长期特别国债启动发行,为基建投资注入充裕资金。不同于地产投资的内生性波动, 基建投资具有明确的政策导向性和计划性,2025年作为"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划衔接的关键年份,交通、水利、能源等重大基础设施项目进入集中开工 期。从资金端到项目端,基建链条的传导效率正在提升,水泥、管材、防水材料等建材品种面临确定性的需求回补。 从数据上看,尽管 12月,基础设施建设投资累计同比下降至-1.48%,较11月的0.13%进一步回落,显示出该领域投资增速持续放缓。制造业投资累计同比则 录得0.60%,较11月的1.90%显著下降,表明制造业投资增速同样面临较大压力。但基础设施建设投资累计比重在2025年12月为50.49%,较前期变化不大, 仍占据较高比重,反映其在固定资产投资中的重要地位。 图:制造业与基础设施投资累计同比走势 ...
建材行业周报:关注春节后的涨价预期与地产催化
股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.10 关注春节后的涨价预期与地产催化 [Table_Industry] 建材 ——建材行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | baoyanxin@gtht.com | S0880513070005 | | 花健祎(分析师) | 0755-23976858 | huajianyi@gtht.com | S0880521010001 | | 巫恺洋(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | wukaiyang@gtht.com | S0880525080008 | 本报告导读: 消费建材关注基本面确定性等待宏观上修可能性,大宗品种价格迎来优势区间。 投资要点: | 1. | 建材行业投资策略 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. | 市场回顾 5 | | | 2.1. | 板块行情 5 | | | 2.2. | 个股涨跌及资金流动 6 | | | 2.3. | 行业历史估值 7 ...
建材行业2025年年报业绩前瞻:周期建材分化,消费建材个股修复
行 业 及 产 业 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com 建筑材料 2026 年 02 月 10 日 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com 联系人 周期建材分化,消费建材个股修复 看好 ——建材行业 2025 年年报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 国内水泥价格前高后低,去产能稳增长效果或在 2026 年显现。2025 年水泥均价 372.8 元/吨, 同比下降 12.6 元/吨。其中 1-4 季度均价分别为 400. ...
兼顾电子布涨价弹性与传统稳投资
HTSC· 2026-02-09 01:50
证券研究报告 工业/基础材料 上周国常会再次指出促进有效投资对于稳定经济增长、增强发展后劲具有重 要作用,提升 26Q1 投资稳增长预期,北方地区补齐防洪排涝抗灾基础设施 短板有望迎政策催化,防水及工程管材有望受益。上周玻纤电子布再度提价, 7628 电子布提价 0.5 元/米以上,幅度和时点均超市场预期,体现出高端电 子布景气"下沉"向普通电子布传导的特征。此外,我们继续看好商业航天 中高端材料需求,主要包括耐高温纤维材料、太阳翼能源系统中的钙钛矿材 料和 UTG 玻璃等细分品类。建议 26Q1 继续均衡布局新兴产业成长与传统 顺周期,重点推荐亚翔集成、精工钢构、中材国际、四川路桥、中国建筑国 际、中国联塑、凯盛科技、华新建材、北新建材、旗滨集团。 细分行业回顾:普通电子/纱布提价时点和幅度超预期 截至 2 月 6 日,上周全国水泥价格周环比-0.9%;水泥出货率 24.6%,周环 比/同比-7.8/+2.5pct。国内浮法玻璃均价 62 元/重量箱,周环比/同比 +0.4%/-17.8%,样本企业库存 4949 万重箱,周环比+0.4%。3.2/2.0mm 光 伏玻璃主流订单价格 17.8/10.8 元/ ...
建筑材料行业:25Q4基金加仓水泥玻璃,板块整体配置仍在低位
GF SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 01:33
[Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 25Q4 基金加仓水泥玻璃,板块整体配置仍在低位 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [Table_Page] 深度分析|建筑材料 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 持有 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 持有 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-09 | [分析师: Table_Author]谢璐 SAC 执证号:S0260514080004 SFC CE No. BMB592 021-38003688 xielu@gf.com.cn 分析师: 张乾 SAC 执证号:S0260522080003 021-38003687 gzzhangqian@gf.com.cn 分析师: 陈琳云 SAC 执证号:S0260526010002 -10% 1% 12% 22% 33% 44% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 11/25 02/26 建筑材料 沪深300 chenlinyun@gf.com.cn 请注意,张乾,陈琳云并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 的注册持牌人,不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table ...
建材在底部,行业正迎来景气度和估值共振向上拐点
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2026-02-08 15:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the building materials sector, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][110]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is at a turning point, with both demand and valuation expected to improve. The real estate sector is anticipated to stabilize, leading to a recovery in building materials demand. The report highlights that new construction starts in 2025 are projected to decline by 70% compared to 2021, with completions down by 40% and new home sales down by 50% [9][8]. - Rising prices of upstream raw materials such as asphalt, polypropylene, and polyethylene are expected to drive up building material prices, benefiting companies with pricing power [9][8]. - The report recommends several companies, including Beixin Building Materials, Oriental Yuhong, and Sanhe Tree, while suggesting to pay attention to companies like Rabbit Baby and China Liansu [9][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The building materials sector is currently underweighted, with a configuration ratio of 0.72% as of Q4 2025, which is significantly lower than the historical average since 2010 [8]. - The cement and glass sectors are noted to be at low valuation levels, with the cement manufacturing PB at the 16th percentile and glass manufacturing PB also at the 16th percentile since 2010 [8]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Beixin Building Materials: EPS forecasted to increase from 2.1 in 2024 to 3.5 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 13.4 to 8.2 [6]. - Conch Cement: EPS forecasted to rise from 1.5 in 2024 to 2.2 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 17.3 to 11.6 [6]. - China Jushi: EPS expected to grow from 0.6 in 2024 to 1.2 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 36.1 to 18.6 [6]. - Other companies include Weixing New Materials, Sanhe Tree, and Huaxin Cement, all rated as "Buy" or "Increase" [6]. Industry Trends - The report notes a significant increase in market share for consumer building materials over the past few years, with profitability in segments like waterproofing and piping at a low point, suggesting potential for recovery [9][8]. - The cement sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with a current national cement market price decrease of 1% and a notable drop in average shipment rates [36][9]. - The float glass sector is experiencing a supply-side adjustment, with production capacity at a five-year low, indicating potential for price recovery [9][8]. Emerging Opportunities - The report highlights opportunities in overseas markets, particularly in Africa, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, where rising populations and urbanization rates are creating demand for building materials [9][8]. - The electronic fabric market is also noted for its upward price trend due to supply constraints, with significant price increases observed in recent weeks [9][8]. Conclusion - The building materials industry is positioned for a recovery phase, driven by stabilization in the real estate market and rising raw material prices. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong pricing power and market positioning to capitalize on these trends [9][8].
建筑材料行业投资策略周报:普通电子布涨价超预期,上海拟收购二手房用作保租房-20260208
GF SECURITIES· 2026-02-08 09:10
[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|建筑材料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 普通电子布涨价超预期,上海拟收购二手房用作保租房 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 持有 前次评级 持有 报告日期 2026-02-08 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师: Table_Author]谢璐 SAC 执证号:S0260514080004 SFC CE No. BMB592 021-38003688 xielu@gf.com.cn 分析师: 张乾 SAC 执证号:S0260522080003 021-38003687 gzzhangqian@gf.com.cn 分析师: 陈琳云 SAC 执证号:S0260526010002 -10% 1% 12% 22% 33% 44% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 11/25 02/26 建筑材料 沪深300 chenlinyun@gf.com.cn 请注意,张乾,陈琳云并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 的注册持牌人,不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研 ...
建筑材料行业2026年投资策略:重点关注电子布板块,重视第二增长曲线
Southwest Securities· 2026-02-08 06:31
建筑材料行业2026年投资策略 重点关注电子布板块,重视第二增长曲线 西南证券研究院 建筑材料团队 2026年2月 核心观点 1 行业观点:传统建材在新建地产需求收缩放缓、存量更新需求逐渐释放等因素交织影响下,有望触底回升,消费建 材受益显著;受益于算力需求爆发,特种玻纤电子布板块景气度较高,看好技术优势突出、具备产能储备的公司; 受益于基建发力,看好基建相关板块投资机会;部分积极转型并具备优质第二增长曲线的公司值得重点关注。 消费建材:2025年,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)48.5万亿元,同比下降3.8%;全国房地产开发投资8.28万亿元, 同比下降17.2%;其中,房屋新开工面积同比下降20.4%至5.88亿平方米,仅为2019年最高值的25.87%,新建房地 产市场对需求的拖累已充分反应。房地产行业进入存量市场,截至2023年中国城镇住宅存量约为335.5亿平方米, 城镇住房套数约3.74亿套,存量房翻新改造需求增长空间广阔。伴随商品房需求刺激政策陆续推出,"止跌回稳"、 "保交楼"等举措有望对商品房竣工和销售情况有所托底;存量市场下二次装修需求持续释放;下游需求由B端转向 C端过程中部分品牌力、渠道 ...
装修建材板块2月4日涨3.6%,坚朗五金领涨,主力资金净流入2.03亿元
从资金流向上来看,当日装修建材板块主力资金净流入2.03亿元,游资资金净流出5928.88万元,散户资 金净流出1.44亿元。装修建材板块个股资金流向见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002791 | 坚朗五金 | 25.70 | 10.02% | 16.65万 | 4.10亿 | | 300737 | 科顺股份 | 7.55 | 8.63% | 72.54万 | 5.31亿 | | 002271 | 东方雨虹 | 18.26 | 6.97% | 79.51万 | 14.27亿 | | 002043 | 兔宝宝 | 17.32 | 5.67% | 18.38万 | 3.12亿 | | 000786 | 北新建材 | 29.55 | 5.61% | 52.61万 | 15.41亿 | | 002372 | 伟星新材 | 12.51 | 4.69% | 24.72万 | 3.05亿 | | 603378 | 亚士创能 | 6.86 | 4.57% | 10.29万 | 696 ...
建筑材料行业周报:二手房成交回暖,关注后续政策催化
国盛证券有限责任公司· 2026-02-02 01:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The real estate market in first-tier cities has shown strong performance, particularly in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [1][2] - Government debt issuance has significantly increased, with a total of 863.35 billion yuan in January 2026, reflecting a 204.3% month-on-month increase and a 54.8% year-on-year increase, which may alleviate fiscal pressure and accelerate municipal projects [1] - The glass manufacturing sector is approaching a supply-demand balance due to accelerated cold repairs, while photovoltaic glass companies are reducing production to ease supply tensions [1][3] - The cement industry is experiencing a demand bottoming process, with increased off-peak production efforts and a focus on regional demand recovery, particularly in areas like Tibet and Xinjiang [1][2] - The demand for fiberglass remains robust, driven by growth in wind energy and high-end applications, indicating structural investment opportunities [1][6] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the national cement price index is 342.94 yuan/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.278 million tons, a decrease of 4.27% [2][18] - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns is 45.19%, up 2.77 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight recovery in production [2][18] - The market is currently undergoing structural adjustments, with infrastructure remaining the main support but showing weak growth [2][18] Glass Industry Tracking - As of January 29, 2026, the average price of float glass is 1144.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.53% [3][31] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 49.27 million weight boxes, down 500,000 from the previous week [3][31] - Demand is expected to slow down as many small processing plants will shut down for the holiday, leading to a quieter market [3][31] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving remains stable, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases, while supply remains unchanged [6] - The average price of electronic yarn is stable, with expectations of price increases in high-end products due to ongoing demand [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber price remains stable, with a weekly production of 2,369 tons and an operating rate of 76.28% [7] - The industry continues to face profitability challenges, with an average production cost of 113,300 yuan/ton and a negative gross margin [7] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is benefiting from the recovery in second-hand housing and renovation demand, with significant potential for market share growth [1][6]