"我发小在央企干了十五年，上周被谈话了，领导说他那个部门要撤销，让他要么转岗去一线，要么拿补偿走人。" 这是昨天晚上我跑步时碰见邻居老赵，他一边喘气一边跟我说的第一句话。我差点没站稳——他说的那个发小我认识，当年可是他们单位的"先进工作者"， 奖状贴了一墙，怎么说优化就优化了？ 老赵叹了口气："现在不一样了，央国企也在改革，铁饭碗不铁了。" 这话让我愣了好一会儿。在大多数人的印象里，央国企不就是"进去了就能干到退休"的地方吗？啥时候也开始动真格的了？ 回去一查才知道，2026年这波改革，确实不一般。 先说几个数字：官方数据显示，央企管理人员已经有6%完成了调整。啥概念？就是一百个当官的里头，有六个人要么下去了，要么转岗了，要么走了。这 个比例看着不高，但放在千万级的央企队伍里，那就是几十万人。 我表弟就在一家建筑类央企上班，他们单位去年开始搞"末位淘汰"。他跟我说："哥，以前我们单位有句老话，叫'只要不犯法，干到六十八'。现在变了， 叫'今天工作不努力，明天努力找工作'。" 这话虽然是玩笑，但反映的是实情。以前央国企的"铁饭碗"，靠的是身份——你是正式工，你就是铁饭碗。现在呢？靠的是能力和业绩。你行你就上，不 ...

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 2026 年 02 月 24 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -2.00 2.05 21.98 沪深 300 -2.70 0.31 18.89 -8% 2% 12% 22% 32% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 上证指数 沪深300 叶彬 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530523080001 yebin@hnchasing.com 相关报告 经济金融高频数据周报（02.24-02.27） 投资要点 全球经济及通胀：经济活跃度上行，通胀走低。 工业生产：主要开工率涨跌不一。 2026 年 2 月 13 日中国高炉当周开工率(247 家)为 80.15%，较上周上 涨 0.60 个百分点，螺纹钢主要钢厂开工率为 32.78%，较上周下降 1.96 个百分点。 消费：汽车销量走低。 必需品消费平稳，2026 年 2 月 9 日柯桥纺织价格指数为 105.32 点， 较前周上涨 0.24 点；可选品消费走低，2026 年 2 月 8 日中国乘用车 当周日均销量为 3.55 万辆，较上周减少 1.57 万辆。 投资：春 ...

Group 1: Economic Transition - The shift from real estate economy to technology economy involves significant changes in industrial structure, development models, and institutional reforms, impacting key macroeconomic variables such as production, inflation, employment, fiscal policy, and monetary policy[2]. - By 2025, the contribution of new quality productivity industries to total output has surpassed that of the real estate construction chain, indicating a need for macroeconomic research to focus more on new quality productivity[11]. - The traditional development model driven by urbanization and population growth is transitioning to one focused on stock optimization and quality improvement due to slowing urbanization[8]. Group 2: Industrial Structure and Macroeconomic Features - The industrial structure has shifted from a real estate and construction-centric model to one centered around new quality productivity, which includes emerging manufacturing and certain service sectors[12]. - New quality productivity industries are expected to have a greater impact on total output than the real estate construction chain by 2025, reflecting their higher efficiency and growth potential[20]. - The inflation impact from new quality productivity industries is weaker compared to upstream factors like commodities and real estate, indicating a limited ability to drive PPI increases[25]. Group 3: Employment and Development Models - The labor compensation in new quality productivity sectors is lower than in traditional industries, which may create pressure on income and employment, necessitating a focus on developing service consumption to mitigate these effects[31]. - The transition from a cost advantage to a quality advantage in the labor force is evident, as the number of highly educated graduates continues to rise, supporting productivity growth in manufacturing[41]. Group 4: Institutional Mechanisms and Macro Control - The macro control mechanisms need to adapt to support the technology economy, moving away from real estate dependency and enhancing the role of direct financing systems[54]. - The fiscal and tax systems must evolve to accommodate new business models and support emerging industries, with a focus on expanding local tax sources and creating a tax system that aligns with new economic realities[56].

张启尧分析，沃什提名美联储主席带来全球流动性预期收紧、美伊地缘事件、美股科技巨头资本开支超 预期等多重不确定因素集中释放后，短线投资者借这些利空事件对年初以来的多头交易进行获利了结， 并非基本面或政策路径发生实质性变化。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕也表示："沃什'降息+缩表'倾向引发金融条件紧缩担忧、美股科技龙头巨 额资本开支扰动与前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售交织助推了交易波动和信心走弱，加之临近春节长假观 望情绪升温，客观上股市微观结构受到负面冲击。" 辞旧迎新，马年A股第一个交易日已经到来。 "马年对于A股而言又将是值得期待的一年。随着前期调整释放一定风险，从事件催化和日历效应角 度，春节后将有望迎来马年的第一轮上行。"兴业证券首席策略分析师张启尧表示。 一些机构研究也表示，春节日历效应明显，A股节后表现往往强于节前，马年有望迎来"开门红"。 2月23日，港股走出强势行情，为节后市场提供重要参考。截至收盘，恒生指数收涨2.53%，恒生科技 指数收涨3.34%。盘面结构分化明显，有色金属、半导体概念、互联网科技股走高，中芯国际、美团涨 超5%。AI大模型、机器人板块回落，智谱跌超22%，MiniMax跌超1 ...

减少主要是受到若干大规模公营项目，包括一项涉及香港机场客运大楼的公共基建及设施项目，及一个 涉及启德体育园的公共基建及设施项目完工或接近完工所致，导致本期间来自公营项目的收益减少。 格隆汇2月23日丨怡俊集团控股(02442.HK)公告，集团于截至2025年12月31日止6个月的收益约为1.39亿 港元(2024年：约1.83亿港元)。集团于截至2025年12月31日止6个月的亏损约为510万港元(2024年：溢利 约220万港元)。每股基本亏损约为1.25港仙(2024年：每股基本盈利约0.55港仙)。董事会并不建议派付截 至2025年12月31日止6个月的中期股息(2024年：零)。 ...

各位朋友，春节假期即将过完了，A股马年首个交易周马上开锣！这七天国内外大事不断，政策、产 业、资金面都有新动向。别慌，今天一文给你捋清楚——节后行情怎么走？机会在哪儿？风险在哪儿？ 看完这篇心里就有数了。 先说结论：节后A股大概率还是结构性行情，核心逻辑就八个字——政策托底、产业突围。科技成长、 政策受益、消费复苏这三条线最值得看，但国际上的关税变数和地缘风险也得留个心眼。 先看国内政策。内需消费被提到了前所未有的高度，《求是》杂志发重磅文章，明确要搞提振消费专项 行动，扩大优质商品供给，还要推城市更新和民间投资。这信号够直接吧？家电、文旅这些消费板块， 还有市政基建、新基建，都是直接受益的。另外2月17日起对加拿大、英国免签30天，入境游和免税店 短期要火，长期看服务贸易开放也是大趋势。 平台经济这边也有新动静。市场监管总局约谈了阿里、抖音等7家平台，核心就一句话——别搞内卷式 竞争，促销得守规矩。这对头部合规企业是长期利好，行业生态会慢慢变好。与此同时，字节跳动的豆 包大模型2.0 Pro发布了，直接对标GPT-5.2，推理成本降了一个数量级！国内AI大模型已经进入实用化 阶段，算力、算法、应用端的企业接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The optimistic prediction for China's GDP growth in 2026 is set at 4.9%, supported by policy stabilization and structural transformation factors, with potential to closely approach this figure due to various economic drivers [1][3][20]. Economic Growth Forecast - The overall GDP growth rate for 2026 is expected to be 4.9%, aligning with mainstream institutional forecasts, with a consensus range of 4.5% to 5.0% [3][4]. - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley project a baseline growth of 4.8%, while local institutions set their growth center at 4.8% to 5.0% [3][4]. Policy Support - Fiscal policy is expected to be proactive, with a projected increase in broad fiscal spending by approximately 1.2 trillion yuan compared to 2025, maintaining a deficit ratio at a reasonable level of 4% [4]. - Monetary policy anticipates 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts and one interest rate reduction, with social financing growth expected to remain around 8.5% [5]. Domestic Demand as Growth Engine - Domestic consumption is projected to be the primary driver of the 4.9% growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing approximately 55% to GDP growth [7][12]. - Specific policies, such as the expansion of the "old-for-new" program, are expected to stimulate large-scale consumption [8]. Investment Trends - Investment patterns are characterized by strong manufacturing, stable infrastructure, and a significant reduction in the negative impact of real estate [9]. - Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain over 5% growth in high-tech sectors, while infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to 5%-6% [9]. Export Resilience - China's exports are anticipated to show unexpected resilience, particularly in high-value products like AI servers and semiconductor equipment, with export growth rates of 5%-6% [11]. - The trade surplus is expected to remain high, with net exports contributing 0.8%-0.9% to GDP growth [11]. New Five-Year Plan Impact - The new five-year plan is expected to catalyze new productive forces, with significant investments in high-tech industries and infrastructure projects commencing in 2026 [17][18]. - The transition from the previous five-year plan to the new one is expected to enhance investment efficiency and stimulate economic growth [18]. Quarterly Growth Dynamics - The GDP growth is projected to follow a pattern of lower growth in the first half of the year, with an increase in the latter half, reaching approximately 5.1% in the fourth quarter [16].

Core Viewpoint - China Infrastructure Investment (00600.HK) reported significant growth in revenue and gross profit for the four months ending April 30, 2024, driven by the expansion of its core business and increased customer sales [1] Financial Performance - The company recorded revenue of HKD 63,697,000, representing a year-on-year increase of 85.2 times [1] - Gross profit reached HKD 6,289,000, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.9 times [1]

Economic Overview - The report by KPMG indicates that China's economy is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a real GDP growth of 5.0% year-on-year, meeting the initial target growth rate [1] - Industrial production is expected to improve steadily, with manufacturing value-added growth of 6.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [1] Consumption Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7% year-on-year in 2025, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Despite a decline in retail sales in the fourth quarter, the service consumption maintains strong resilience, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.5%, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from the previous three quarters [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 3.8% year-on-year in 2025, marking the first annual negative growth since records began [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize in early 2026 due to fiscal support, while manufacturing investment may show marginal improvement as technology innovation and industrial upgrades are prioritized [3] Export Performance - Exports are anticipated to grow by 5.5% year-on-year in 2025, driven by trade partnerships with regions such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, contributing 5.0 percentage points to export growth [4] - High-end manufacturing categories, such as integrated circuits and new energy products, are expected to be the core growth engines for exports [4] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasizes higher quality economic growth, with macro policies expected to maintain a stable expansion, and a fiscal deficit rate around 4% [5] - Policies will focus on boosting domestic demand and optimizing supply, with increased support for projects aimed at enhancing consumption and lowering financing barriers for private enterprises [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economy is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a real GDP growth of 5.0%, meeting the initial target growth rate [2] - In 2025, the industrial production showed steady improvement, with the manufacturing value-added growing by 6.1% year-on-year, supported by strong export demand and domestic equipment renewal policies [5] - The retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, although the fourth quarter saw a decline of 1.8%, marking the first quarterly negative growth since 2023 [9] - Fixed asset investment in 2025 experienced a decline of 3.8%, marking the first annual negative growth since records began, with significant contractions in real estate and infrastructure investments [12] - Exports in 2025 grew by 5.5%, with a trade surplus reaching nearly 1.2 trillion USD, the highest on record, driven by high-end manufacturing categories like integrated circuits and new energy products [15] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the central economic work conference emphasizes higher quality requirements for economic growth, with macro policies expected to maintain a steady expansion [3] - The government plans to support domestic demand and optimize supply, with a focus on increasing investment in human capital and lowering financing barriers for private enterprises [3] - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 was reported at 49.8%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand recovery [18] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January 2026 was at 49.4%, with the construction sector returning to contraction territory, influenced by adverse weather and the upcoming holiday [19] - Public fiscal revenue in 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with expenditures also falling short of budgeted growth, reflecting a cautious fiscal environment [22]