从U型曲线到红海深水区：泡泡玛特市值的可持续性拷问

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has experienced a dramatic recovery, achieving a market capitalization of over 200 billion HKD by the end of 2024, following a significant drop in valuation in 2022. The company has demonstrated a "U-shaped curve" in its market performance, moving from peak to trough and back again [1][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Pop Mart reported revenue of 13.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, and an adjusted net profit of 3.40 billion RMB, up 185.9% [2][4][6]. - The gross profit rose from 3.86 billion RMB in 2023 to 8.71 billion RMB in 2024, marking a 125.4% increase, with a gross margin of 66.8%, up 8 percentage points from the previous year [4][6][7]. Market Dynamics - The growth in Pop Mart's revenue is significantly attributed to its overseas markets, with international and Hong Kong-Macau revenue reaching 5.07 billion RMB, a staggering 375.2% increase year-on-year, accounting for 38.9% of total revenue [10][11]. - The Southeast Asian market has been particularly successful, generating 2.4 billion RMB, a 619.1% increase, and representing 47.4% of the international revenue [10][11]. Competitive Landscape - The collectible toy market is becoming increasingly competitive, with new entrants like TOP TOY and 52TOYS, and existing players like Blok and others intensifying the competition [3][16]. - Pop Mart's market share is relatively small, holding only 8.5% of the market, with the top five companies in the sector accounting for less than 25% of the market [16]. IP Strategy - Pop Mart's core competitive advantage lies in its proprietary IPs, which generated 11.12 billion RMB in revenue, a 130.6% increase, making up 85.3% of total revenue [7][8]. - The company has diversified its product offerings beyond blind boxes, launching new brands and product lines, including jewelry and themed parks, to enhance its market presence [7][8]. Challenges Ahead - Despite the impressive growth, Pop Mart faces challenges in maintaining customer loyalty, as evidenced by a decline in member repurchase rates from 58% in 2019 to 49.4% in 2024 [17]. - The company must navigate the complexities of entering mature markets like North America and Europe, where competition is fierce and consumer preferences differ significantly from those in Asia [13][14].