CMS(600999) 智通财经网·2025-04-06 23:32Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the difference between net rental yield and mortgage rates in first-tier cities ranges from 69 to 146 basis points, with smaller differences in second and third-tier cities. A further decline in mortgage rates is expected to help stabilize total demand for new and second-hand housing [1][5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Since September 24, the real estate market has seen improvements due to policy easing, including adjustments to down payment ratios and mortgage rates, which have positively influenced resident expectations and market fundamentals [2]. - The current market is characterized by strong supply and demand in high-tier cities, while lower-tier cities are experiencing weakened demand [2]. Group 2: Mortgage Rate Decline Pathways - Potential pathways for mortgage rate declines include lowering the housing provident fund rate to create space for commercial loan rate reductions and timely adjustments to the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3][4]. - The current first-time home loan interest rate in 50 cities has reached a low of 3.06%, with a subsequent slight rebound to 3.11%, influenced by the housing provident fund rate [3]. Group 3: Impact of Mortgage Rate Decline on Housing Demand - Historical data suggests that a narrowing gap between net rental yield and mortgage rates can stabilize total housing demand. For instance, during the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, a similar trend was observed where rental yields increased as mortgage rates decreased [4][5]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Relationship - A decline in mortgage rates is expected to reduce "trend trading" listings, thereby improving the supply-demand relationship and providing investors with clearer expectations regarding the stabilization of housing prices [7]. - The structure of listings can be categorized into forced sales due to liquidity issues and those based on future price expectations, with the latter likely decreasing as mortgage rates fall [7]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The company maintains a dual investment strategy focusing on both relative and absolute perspectives in the real estate sector. Investors are encouraged to seek high-growth stocks while balancing valuations [8]. - Attention is drawn to companies with a history of stable cash flow generation and those that may benefit from valuation recovery as debt repayment pressures ease [8].