CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 新浪财经·2025-04-14 06:25Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "immediate purchase and refund" policy is expected to enhance the convenience for foreign tourists and stimulate local consumption, particularly benefiting companies like China Duty Free Group, which holds an 81.74% market share in the domestic duty-free market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "immediate purchase and refund" policy allows foreign tourists to claim VAT refunds on purchases made in designated stores, enhancing the shopping experience and potentially increasing the willingness to make repeat purchases [2]. - The policy is being expanded from pilot regions to nationwide implementation, which is anticipated to boost consumption among inbound tourists [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The duty-free channel is expected to maintain its price advantage due to the exemption from import tariffs, consumption taxes, and VAT, making it an attractive option for consumers [3]. - The sales figures for offshore duty-free shopping in Hainan showed a decline in early 2025, but there are signs of stabilization in per capita spending, indicating a potential recovery in the market [3]. Group 3: Company Outlook - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting EPS of 2.26, 2.56, and 2.91 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and has raised its target prices for A and H shares to 79.1 yuan and 73.08 HKD, reflecting confidence in the company's leading position and growth potential in the duty-free sector [4].