报告指，中国中免上周五(25日)盘后发布半年度业绩快报，上半年净利润同比下降20%至26亿元人民 币，据此推算第二季单季净利润为6.62亿元人民币，同比下降32%，较第一季的19亿元显著下滑，低于 该行及市场预期，主要受线上及机场渠道持续疲弱拖累(高盛估算该渠道同比下滑13%，尽管国际航空 客流同比恢复20%或按季增长5%至10%)。 高盛表示，正如该行在2023年5月关于海南全岛免税政策的深度分析中所指出，自由贸易港政策的全面 实施虽可能通过吸引更多消费者扩大市场规模，但品牌商在海南自建门店的潜在计划将使公司面临更直 接的竞争。某程度上，公司已为此转型，从单纯向品牌采购商品的免税营运商逐步转向提供零售空间的 平台营运商。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，考虑到线上渠道等销售动能减弱，将中国中免(01880)2025至2027 年每股盈利预测下调12%至13%。基于估值基准转换至2026年(原为2025年)，维持中国中免 (601888.SH)A股目标价59元人民币，并将H股目标价由46.2港元上调至51.3港元(对应A股/H股折价收窄 至20%，原为30%)，与历史均值及同业水平趋同。虽然短期内可能迎来 ...

2025 年 07 月 29 日 | H70420@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 顾向君 目标价(H 股/HKD) | 68 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | 商贸零售 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/07/28) | | | | | 57.90 | | | | 恒生指数(2025/07/28) | | | 25,562.1 | | | | | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 76.56/38.72 | | | | | | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 2,068.86 | | | | | | H 股数(百万) | | | | | 116.38 | | | | H 市值(亿元) | | | | | 902.02 | | | | | | 中国旅游集团 | | | | | | | 主要股东 | | | 有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | | | (50.3%) | | | 每股净值(元) | | | | | 27.54 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The beauty care sector is highlighted with the launch of the world's first "honeycomb collagen" gel product by Jinbo Biological, which shows significant advancements in cell adhesion and collagen retention [3][23]. - The report notes a general increase in the performance of retail, social services, and beauty care sectors, with respective weekly gains of +2.65%, +2.30%, and +5.42% [14][16]. - Key companies such as Proya and Huaxi Hospital are collaborating on mitochondrial anti-aging research, indicating a trend towards scientific advancements in beauty products [3][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - For the week of July 21-25, 2025, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors saw increases of +2.65%, +2.30%, and +5.42%, ranking 14th, 17th, and 6th among 31 primary industries [14][16]. - Sub-sectors such as personal care products, tourism, and cosmetics experienced notable gains of +7.74%, +3.93%, and +3.39% respectively [16][19]. Key Industry Events and News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially close on December 18, 2025, which is expected to enhance trade conditions [3][23]. - Jinbo Biological launched a new injectable collagen gel product, which is expected to significantly improve skin treatment outcomes [3][23]. - Proya and Huaxi Hospital have partnered to focus on mitochondrial anti-aging research, which may lead to innovative product developments [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry sectors, suggesting specific stocks such as Proya, Giant Biological, and Marubi [5][29]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in these sectors, particularly in light of recent product innovations and market trends [5][29].

截至7月28日收盘，自由贸易港概念下跌1.52%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，锦江在线、海南 瑞泽、交运股份等跌幅居前，股价上涨的有7只，涨幅居前的有熊猫乳品、上海临港、中远海科等，分 别上涨3.59%、2.83%、1.91%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PCB概念 | 4.33 | 海南自贸区 | -1.76 | | 兵装重组概念 | 4.08 | 金属锌 | -1.74 | | PET铜箔 | 4.03 | 煤炭概念 | -1.71 | | PEEK材料 | 3.03 | 金属铅 | -1.70 | | 太赫兹 | 2.62 | 自由贸易港 | -1.52 | | 华为手机 | 2.40 | 低辐射玻璃(Low-E) | -1.29 | | 共封装光学(CPO) | 2.39 | 特钢概念 | -1.26 | | 6G概念 | 2.25 | 赛马概念 | -1.23 | | 毫米波雷达 | 2.23 | 金属铜 | -1.01 | | 富士康概念 | 2.17 | 免税店 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The tourism industry is experiencing a rise in activity, yet China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) continues to face operational challenges, with significant declines in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported approximately 28.15 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year decrease of about 10% [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was around 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of over 20% compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The second quarter saw a net profit of approximately 662 million yuan, marking a decline of over 30%, the lowest level since 2018 [2][4][6]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue for the second quarter was approximately 11.41 billion yuan, down 8.45% year-on-year [4]. - The first quarter revenue was reported at 16.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.96% year-on-year [3][4]. - The overall performance in the first half of 2025 indicates a continuous decline in both revenue and net profit, with the second quarter showing a more pronounced drop [5][7]. Market Position and Strategy - China Duty Free Group maintains a strong position in the Hainan duty-free market, with a market share increase of nearly 1 percentage point [9]. - The company plans to accelerate its strategic transformation and expand its "duty-free+" boundaries, focusing on innovation in its own health brand [10][14]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with the company facing challenges from increased competition and changing consumer preferences [12][13]. Historical Context - Since its listing in 2009, the company has shown significant growth, with peak revenues and profits in 2021, but has since experienced a notable decline [10][11]. - The stock price has dropped over 80% from its peak of 403.78 yuan per share in 2021, with a current market capitalization of approximately 140.8 billion yuan [11][12]. Financial Health - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the company had substantial cash reserves of 39.68 billion yuan and low interest-bearing debt of 4.62 billion yuan [15].

Market Trends - The market has recently exhibited typical "water buffalo" characteristics, and whether this current trend can evolve into a longer-lasting bull market will depend on future fundamental developments [1][20]. Economic Indicators - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47%, the Nasdaq increased by 0.24%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.40%, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record closing highs [3]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.89%, with most popular Chinese concept stocks declining [4]. Government Policies - The State Council approved measures for gradually implementing free preschool education, emphasizing the importance of this initiative for long-term development and its impact on families [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) highlighted the need for a stable capital market amidst complex internal and external environments, focusing on market stability, strict regulation, and enhancing market functions [6]. Corporate Developments - China National Duty-Free Corporation reported a net profit of 2.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 20.81% year-on-year, with total operating revenue of 28.15 billion yuan, down 9.96% [16]. - The company *ST Suwu is under investigation for suspected information disclosure violations, which may lead to a forced delisting due to significant legal issues [19]. Investment Opportunities - The upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference is expected to catalyze multiple sub-sectors, while the continued implementation of policies supporting the Sci-Tech Innovation Board may lead to a rebound in previously stagnant stocks [20]. - Recommendations include focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communications, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and gaming as the market approaches the mid-reporting season [20].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|社会服务 2025Q2 商社板块基金持仓分析：新消 费热度高，化妆品、医美持仓增加 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年07月27日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2025Q2 社会服务、商贸零售、美容护理基金重仓持股比例分别环比-0.15pct、-0.76pct、 +0.08pct 至 1.11%、1.87%、0.54%（若剔除阿里巴巴和美团，社会服务、商贸零售基金重仓持 股比例分别环比-0.075pct、+0.001pct 至 0.61%、0.61%）。行业间对比来看，二季度社会服 务、商贸零售、美容护理基金配置比例排名分别为第 21、17、25。 |分析师及联系人 邓文慧 郭家玮 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590525030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 14 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年07月27日 社会服务 2025Q2 商社板块基金持仓分析：新消费热度 高，化妆品、医美持仓增加 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -30% -10% ...

龙湖天街落子杭州萧山 整体商业体量9.7万平方米 7月22日，据"萧山经济技术开发区"微信公众号消息，7月21日，杭政储出[2025]20号智能机器人及康养 医疗科技研发基地项目商业品牌签约仪式顺利举行。据悉，此次签约项目是经开区国控集团与龙湖集团 联袂打造的首个商业综合体项目，也是龙湖天街首度落子萧山的战略性布局。项目将全面授权以龙湖天 街品牌进行开发运营，整体商业体量9.7万平方米，预计于2029年正式开业。 领展房产基金：王国龙将于2026年6月底前退任行政总裁及执行董事 7月22日，领展房产基金发布公告称，集团行政总裁王国龙先生将于2026年6月底前退任集团行政总裁及 执行董事。董事会谨此对王国龙先生在过去16年间的领导和作出的贡献表示衷心感谢。董事会将启动全 面的甄选程序寻找王国龙先生的继任人来领导公司的下一阶段发展。王国龙先生将协助公司顺利过渡。 北京举办暑期国庆惠民观影活动 惠民总额超过1000万元 海南自贸港12月封关，海南、免税板块掀起"涨停潮" 7月24日，中国中免A股盘中触及涨停，涨停价70.84元/股，创4月以来新高。在港股市场，企业盘中一 度涨超19%，晚间报收64.4港元/股，股价 ...

三、风险提示 本公告所载2025年半年度主要财务数据为初步核算数据，未经会计师事务所 审计，具体数据以公司《2025年半年度报告》中披露的数据为准，敬请广大投资 者注意投资风险。 特此公告。 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 董 事 会 证券代码：601888 证券简称：中国中免 公告编号：临2025-022 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 本公告所载2025年半年度主要财务数据为初步核算数据，未经会计师事务所 审计，具体数据以中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年半年度报告中披露的数据为准，提请投资者注意投资风险。 一、2025年半年度主要财务数据和指标 | 单位：人民币万元 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 本报告期 上年同期 | 增减变动幅度 | | | | （%） | | | | | 营业总收入 2,815,075.00 3,126,499.84 | | -9.96 | | | 营业利润 370,798.85 4 ...

★ 宏观动态 ★ 法国将正式承认巴勒斯坦国，中方回应 中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆25日主持例行记者会。有记者提问：法国总统马克龙当地时间24日表示，法国将正式 承认巴勒斯坦国。他计划在今年9月联合国大会期间正式宣布这一决定。请问中方对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆：巴勒斯坦问题是中东问题的核心，"两国方案"是解决巴勒斯坦问题的唯一现实出路。中方支持将在联 合国召开的落实"两国方案"高级别会议，将继续同国际社会一道努力，推动平息加沙战火，缓解人道危机，落 实"两国方案"，最终实现巴勒斯坦问题全面、公正、持久解决。 国家外汇管理局：6月中国外汇市场总计成交25.55万亿元人民币 国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，2025年6月，中国外汇市场（不含外币对市场，下同）总计成交25.55万亿元人 民币（等值3.56万亿美元）。其中，银行对客户市场成交3.68万亿元人民币（等值0.51万亿美元），银行间市 场成交21.88万亿元人民币（等值3.05万亿美元）；即期市场累计成交8.91万亿元人民币（等值1.24万亿美 元），衍生品市场累计成交16.64万亿元人民币（等值2.32万亿美元）。2025年1—6月，中国外汇市场累计成交 150.87 ...