投资分析意见：根据公司公告，公司拟向全体股东每股派发现金红利1.05 元，占24 年股东净利润的 50.91%。考虑到终端消费承压及出境游等对海南旅游消费的分流尚未看拐点，我们下调公司盈利预 测，预计25-26 年归母净利润为49.76/61.08 亿元（前值55.98/67.57亿元），新增27 年盈利预测为68.02 亿元，对应25-26 年PE 为26/21/19 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：终端转化率不及预期，市内免税政策不及预期，海南离岛免税竞争加剧风险。 公司公布24 年年度报告，业绩低于预期。公司公布2024 年度报告。根据公司公告，2024年全年实现营 业收入564.7 亿元，同比下降16.38%，实现归属上市公司股东净利润42.7亿元，同比下降36.4%。公司 2024Q4 单季度实现归母净利润3.48 亿元，同比下滑76.9%。 从客流上海南两机场国内客流吞吐量有所增加，但离岛免税规模下降，公司市场份额有所提升。美兰国 际机场2024 全年累计完成运输航班超过18.5 万架次、旅客吞吐量超过2689万人次、货邮吞吐量超过20.9 万吨，同比增长8%/10.5%/19.7%，三大生产运 ...

上 市 公 司 商贸零售 2025 年 03 月 31 日 中国中免 (601888) ——离岛免税承压，长期关注市内免税 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 61.61 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 87.50/53.52 | | 市净率 | 2.4 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.68 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 120,292 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,351.31/10,607.33 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 26.63 | | 资产负债率% | 20.08 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,069/1,952 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/116 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-28 04-28 05-28 06-28 07-28 08-28 09-28 10-28 11-28 ...

社会服务 2025 年 03 月 31 日 中国中免(601888.SH) 宏观消费环境影响经营，持续夯实竞争力 推荐（维持） 股价：61.61 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 社会服务 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.ctgdutyfree.com.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 中国旅游集团有限公司/50.30% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2,069 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 1,952 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 116 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1,257 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 1,203 | | 每股净资产(元) | 26.63 | | 资产负债率(%) | 20.1 | 2024 年公司实现总营业收入 564.74 亿元（同比-16.38%），归母净利润 42.67 亿元（同比-36.44%），扣非后同比-37.70%至 41.44 亿元，非经常性损益主要 是政府补助项目。2024 年公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额为 79.39 亿元（同 比-47.51%）；每股派发现金红利 1 ...

近日中国中免(601888)发布公告，2024年实现营业收入564.74亿元，同比下降16.38%；实现归母净利润42.67亿元，同 比下降36.44%。公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额同比下降47.51%，主要是报告期内销售收款减少所致。 按季度来看，公司2024年业绩呈现出加速下滑的态势，2024年第二、第三、第四季度，分别下滑37.6%、52.53%、 76.93%，其中第四季度利润同比降幅最大。公司的盈利能力也明显下降，去年第四季度销售毛利率为28.54%，创出 2023年来最低。以净资产收益率来看，中国中免的困境更为凸显，2024年加权平均净资产收益率仅为7.88%，为历史 同期最低。 需求承压是中国中免业绩下降的重要原因。根据海口海关数据，2024年全年，海口海关共监管海南离岛免税购物金额 309.4亿元，同比下降29.3%。展望2025年公司业绩能否好转依然存疑。今年1—2月，海南离岛免税购物金额84.1亿 元，同比下降13.3%。 部分机构也大幅下调中国中免未来业绩预期。其中，东吴证券最新预测公司2025年、2026年归母净利润分别为49.8亿 元和57.6亿元，此前预测为60.2亿元和69.7 ...

虽然业绩依旧承压，但中国中免在海南离岛免税市场的份额仍在增长。报告期内，中国中免在海南省拥 有6家离岛免税店。中国中免方面表示，在海南离岛免税市场的优势地位进一步稳固，市场份额同比提 升近2个百分点。 与海南地区业绩承压相比，中国中免机场免税业务在不断增长。中国中免方面表示，受益于免签国家范 围持续扩容、过境免签政策不断优化和国际客运航班量的持续增加，公司境内出入境免税门店销售实现 大幅增长。 不过境内免税赛道愈发拥挤，也让中国中免将目光投向境外市场以寻找增量。财报显示，2024年中国中 免持续扩大境外业务版图，实现新加坡樟宜机场精品店、香港国际机场精品店、日本东京银座珠宝类品 牌免税专柜以及斯里兰卡免税店开业。 资深旅游专家王兴斌认为，中国中免需要从供应链管理、渠道优化及价格策略等多维度提升竞争力，以 巩固其在海南市场的优势地位。随着市场竞争愈演愈烈，包括中国中免在内的各家免税企业，亟待开拓 新的业绩增长点。 北京商报记者 吴其芸 近日，中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"中国中免"）发布2024年财报。一方面，旗下海南离 岛免税板块业绩持续承压；另一方面，其机场免税店业务正在持续增长。随着免税玩家不断 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·旅游零售Ⅱ 中国中免（601888） 2024 年报点评：业绩符合预告值，海南免税 降幅收窄 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 67540 | 56474 | 62952 | 70588 | 78570 | | 同比（%） | 24.08 | (16.38) | 11.47 | 12.13 | 11.31 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6714 | 4267 | 4978 | 5764 | 6686 | | 同比（%） | 33.46 | (36.44) | 16.65 | 15.81 | 16.00 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.25 | 2.06 | 2.41 | 2.79 | 3.23 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 18.99 | 29.87 | 25.61 | 22.11 | 19.06 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...

Core Insights - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue down 16.38% to 56.474 billion yuan and net profit down 36.44% to 4.267 billion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - CDFG's revenue from Hainan decreased by 27.13% to 28.892 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 51.16% of total revenue, down from 58.71% the previous year [2] - The overall duty-free shopping market in Hainan saw a decline, with shopping amounts down 29.3% to 30.94 billion yuan and the number of shoppers down 15.9% to 5.683 million [2] Group 2: Market Challenges - The decline in Hainan's duty-free sales is attributed to factors such as natural disasters, outbound consumption diversion, increased competition from domestic brands, and consumers seeking better value [3] - Despite the challenges, CDFG's market share in Hainan increased by nearly 2 percentage points during the reporting period [3] Group 3: Growth Strategies - CDFG is expanding its airport duty-free business, benefiting from the increase in visa-free countries and the optimization of transit visa policies, leading to significant sales growth in domestic duty-free stores [3] - The company has also won the operating rights for 10 airport and port duty-free projects in the year [3] Group 4: Expansion into Overseas Markets - CDFG is actively seeking new growth opportunities by expanding its overseas presence, opening new stores in locations such as Singapore Changi Airport, Hong Kong International Airport, and Sri Lanka [4] - Recent government policies support the establishment of duty-free stores in qualified cities and promote tax refund services for outbound shopping, encouraging competition in the duty-free market [4] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The increasing number of duty-free players in the market poses ongoing challenges for CDFG, necessitating improvements in supply chain management, channel optimization, and pricing strategies to maintain its competitive edge [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an audit of China Tourism Group Duty Free Co., Ltd.'s non-operating fund occupation and related party transactions for the year 2024, ensuring the authenticity and legality of the financial disclosures [1][2][3]. Financial Summary - The total amount of non-operating fund occupation reported is approximately ¥9.18 billion, with a total of related party transactions amounting to approximately ¥107.44 billion [2][3]. - The report indicates that the company has a significant amount of receivables and payables with related parties, including various subsidiaries and affiliated companies [2][3]. Audit Findings - The audit conducted by Ernst & Young provided a standard unqualified opinion on the financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024, confirming no inconsistencies were found in the major aspects of the financial data [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the summary table should be read in conjunction with the audited financial statements for a comprehensive understanding of the company's financial position [1][2]. Compliance and Responsibility - The company is responsible for the truthful preparation and disclosure of the summary table, ensuring its completeness and legality as per regulatory requirements [1][2]. - The audit report is intended solely for the disclosure purposes of the 2024 annual report and is not applicable for other uses [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 1.05 per share (including tax), which represents 50.91% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2024 [1][2]. Profit Distribution Plan - The total cash dividend amount is RMB 2,172,301,996.20 for the current year, compared to RMB 3,413,617,422.60 in the previous year and RMB 1,655,087,235.20 in the year before that [1]. - The company's retained earnings at the end of the current year amount to RMB 5,241,149,013.42 [1]. - The average net profit over the last three accounting years is RMB 5,337,059,971.28 [1]. - The cumulative cash dividends over the last three accounting years total RMB 7,241,006,654.00 [1]. Decision-Making Process - The board of directors approved the profit distribution plan during the 22nd meeting of the 5th board on March 28, 2025, with 8 votes in favor and no opposition [1][3]. - The supervisory board believes the profit distribution plan complies with relevant laws and the company's articles of association, considering the company's profitability, financial status, and future development plans [3].

Meeting Overview - The fifth meeting of the Supervisory Board of China Tourism Group Duty Free Co., Ltd. was held on March 28, 2025, combining in-person and communication methods [1] - The meeting was attended by all three supervisory members, and the proceedings complied with relevant laws and regulations [1] Resolutions Passed - The Supervisory Board approved the 2024 annual financial settlement report, which accurately reflects the company's financial status and operating results, supported by a standard unqualified audit report [1] - The board also approved the 2024 annual report, confirming that its preparation and review processes met legal and regulatory requirements, and that the report accurately represents the company's situation [1] - The profit distribution plan for 2024 was deemed compliant with laws and regulations, considering the company's profitability, financial status, and future development plans, enhancing investor satisfaction [1] - The board approved the provision for asset impairment, stating that the reasons for the provision are sufficient and comply with accounting standards, ensuring a fair representation of the company's financial condition [1]