Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (601888 SH) [3] Core Views - The company's performance continues to face pressure due to slowing consumer demand and industry cycles [5] - Revenue is significantly impacted by fluctuations in luxury consumption demand among domestic high-end consumers [5] - The decline in revenue is mainly driven by weak consumption demand in the Hainan offshore duty-free market, partially offset by recovery in domestic airport channel sales [5] - The company is actively expanding its city duty-free store projects and accelerating overseas business expansion [5] - Despite short-term challenges, the company remains a leader in the domestic duty-free industry with a clear competitive advantage [5] Financial Performance - 2024 revenue is expected to be 56492 16 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16 36% [2] - 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 4262 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36 50% [2] - 2024 EPS is projected at 2 06 yuan, with a PE ratio of 29 90 [2] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts are 42 6 billion, 51 3 billion, and 67 2 billion yuan respectively [5] - 2024-2026 PE ratios are expected to be 30X, 25X, and 19X respectively [5] Business Operations - The company has won bids for city duty-free store projects in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xi'an, and Fuzhou, totaling 9 city duty-free stores [5] - Overseas expansion includes new stores at Singapore Changi Airport, Hong Kong International Airport, Tokyo Ginza, and Sri Lanka [5] - Beijing and Shanghai airport duty-free store revenues increased by 115% and 32% respectively in 2024 [5] - The company's market share in Hainan increased by 2 percentage points, outperforming the overall industry decline [5] Financial Ratios - 2024 gross margin is expected to be 31 00%, slightly lower than 2023's 31 82% [2] - 2024 net profit margin is forecasted at 7 55%, down from 2023's 9 94% [7] - 2024 ROE is projected at 7 80%, compared to 2023's 12 47% [7] - 2024 asset-liability ratio is expected to be 22 72%, lower than 2023's 24 96% [7] - 2024 current ratio is forecasted at 4 40, an improvement from 2023's 3 81 [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face challenges in 2024 due to a decline in offshore duty-free sales, but airport duty-free operations are showing signs of recovery. The overall revenue forecast for 2024 is RMB 56.49 billion, a decrease of 16.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 4.26 billion, down 36.5% year-on-year [6][8]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the company's performance in 2025, driven by favorable policies and a rebound in tourism, particularly in Hainan. The net profit is projected to increase to RMB 5.02 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [8][6]. Summary by Sections Company Basic Information - The company operates in the leisure services industry, with an A-share price of RMB 61.60 as of January 16, 2025. The market capitalization is approximately RMB 120.27 billion, with major shareholder being China Tourism Group [2][6]. Recent Ratings - The company's stock ratings have fluctuated over the past year, with the most recent rating being "Buy" as of October 16, 2024. Previous ratings included "Trading Buy" and "Buy" [3][6]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 6.71 billion in 2023, with a projected decline to RMB 4.26 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 5.02 billion in 2025. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 2.06 in 2024, RMB 2.43 in 2025, and RMB 2.68 in 2026 [7][8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is RMB 56.49 billion, with a gradual increase to RMB 62.85 billion in 2025 and RMB 68.09 billion in 2026. The company is expected to improve its profit margins as the market recovers [13][8]. Market Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in inbound tourism, with a 43.9% year-on-year rise in the number of travelers, which is expected to positively impact airport duty-free sales. The company is also expanding its presence in urban duty-free stores [8][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free) with a 12-month target price of RMB 71.50 [4][5] Core Views - China Duty Free expects **stable sales in Hainan** and **positive year-on-year growth in airport sales** by 2025 [1] - The company is adopting a **"small batch + high frequency" procurement strategy** to maintain normal inventory levels [1] - If more South Korean duty-free operators cease cooperation with Chinese daigou (shopping agents), it could lead to **consumption repatriation**, benefiting Chinese duty-free operators [1] - The current **Hainan duty-free shopping policy**, including the RMB 100,000 annual shopping quota per person, is expected to remain unchanged for the next 3-5 years [2] - The company is increasing its **market share in Hainan**, and **consumption vouchers** are seen as an effective way to boost duty-free sales, with every RMB 1 voucher generating RMB 16-17 in incremental revenue [2] - **Chanel** is considering entering Haitang Bay, which could further enhance the region's appeal [2] - Airport duty-free sales are expected to grow positively in 2025, driven by the recovery of outbound travel and the boom in inbound tourism, though challenges remain, including competition from cross-border e-commerce platforms and slow introduction of luxury brands [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts **revenue growth** for China Duty Free, with revenues expected to increase from RMB 71.608 billion in 2024E to RMB 113.538 billion in 2028E [9] - **Net profit** is projected to rise from RMB 6.781 billion in 2024E to RMB 10.873 billion in 2028E [9] - **Earnings per share (EPS)** is expected to grow from RMB 3.28 in 2024E to RMB 5.26 in 2028E [9] - The **EBIT margin** is forecasted to remain stable at around 12.4% to 12.7% from 2024E to 2028E [9] - **ROIC (EBIT)** is projected to increase from 33.5% in 2024E to 45.2% in 2028E [9] Valuation and Market Data - The **target price of RMB 71.50** is based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 9.4%, implying a 22x/19x 2024/25E PE ratio [4] - The stock price as of January 15, 2025, was RMB 61.29, with a **52-week range of RMB 53.76 to RMB 89.68** [5] - The company has a **market capitalization of RMB 127 billion (USD 17.3 billion)** and a **free float of 25%** [5] - The **average daily trading volume** is 21,368 thousand shares, with an average daily turnover of RMB 1.493 billion [5] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The **duty-free industry** faces structural challenges, including competition from cross-border e-commerce platforms, slow introduction of luxury brands, and the dilution effect of downtown duty-free stores [3] - The company is negotiating **airport pickup point fees**, and airports may become shareholders in downtown duty-free stores [3] - The **policy prohibiting individual shareholders** in duty-free entities remains unresolved, with individuals still holding over 30% of RiRi shares [1]

Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was RMB 56.492 billion, a decrease of 16.36% year-over-year[3][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.263 billion, down 36.50% year-over-year[3][5] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 2.0605, down 36.50% year-over-year[3] - Weighted average return on equity decreased by 5.25 percentage points to 7.87%[3] - Total assets decreased by 2.71% to RMB 76.729 billion[3] Duty-Free Store Performance - Beijing airport duty-free store revenue increased by over 115% year-over-year[6] - Shanghai airport duty-free store revenue grew by nearly 32% year-over-year[6] - Hainan duty-free market share increased by nearly 2 percentage points[6] Membership and Market Expansion - CDF membership exceeded 38 million, with a 1 percentage point increase in member repurchase rate[6] - The company secured new city duty-free store projects in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xi'an, and Fuzhou[6]

表决结果：同意 3 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 该议案尚需提交公司董事会审议。 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 第五届董事会独立董事专门会议第一次会议 决 议 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届董事 会独立董事专门会议第一次会议于2024年12月25日以通讯方式召开。 本次会议应参加表决独立董事 3 人，实际参加表决独立董事 3 人：葛 明、王瑛、王强。经全体独立董事推举，会议由葛明先生主持。本次 会议的召开符合《公司法》《上市公司独立董事管理办法》等法律、 行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件以及《公司章程》的有关规定。经 与会独立董事认真审议，会议形成决议如下： 审议通过《关于与中国旅游集团有限公司签署<2025 年度日常关 联交易框架协议>的议案》 独立董事认为：公司与控股股东签署 2025 年度日常关联交易框架 协议为公司日常经营活动所需，关联交易遵循了公平、合理的定价政 策和原则，不存在损害公司及其他股东特别是中小股东利益的情形， 不会对公司的独立性和持续经营能力造成不利影响。同意将上述议案 提交公司董事会审议，在审议该项议案时，关联董事应回避表决。 独立董事：葛明、王瑛、王强 2 ...

证券代码：601888 证券简称：中国中免 公告编号：临 2024-038 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 第五届董事会第十九次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届董事会第十九次 会议于 2024 年 12 月 13 日以电子邮件方式发出通知，于 2024 年 12 月 20 日在公司 会议室召开。本次会议应参加表决董事 8 人，实际参加表决董事 8 人：范云军、刘 昆、常筑军、王月浩、王轩、葛明、王瑛、王强。会议由董事长范云军主持，公司 监事和部分高级管理人员列席了会议。本次会议的召开符合《公司法》等法律、行 政法规、部门规章、规范性文件以及《公司章程》的有关规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 经与会董事认真讨论，会议审议通过了以下议案： 1、审议通过《关于公司 2023 年人工成本清算评价结果及 2024 年人工成本预 算的议案》 提交董事会审议前，公司薪酬与考核委员会认真审查了公司 2023 年人工成本清 算评价结果及 20 ...

证券代码：601888 证券简称：中国中免 公告编号：临2024-039 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 关于变更证券事务代表的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 近日，中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会收到证券 事务代表何怡恒先生递交的书面辞职报告。因工作调动，何怡恒先生申请辞去公司 证券事务代表职务。 公司于2024年12月20日召开第五届董事会第十九次会议，审议通过了《关于聘 任证券事务代表的议案》，同意聘任郑铁球先生（简历详见附件）为公司证券事务 代表，任期自董事会审议通过之日起至第五届董事会任期届满之日止。郑铁球先生 拥有证券交易所颁发的董事会秘书资格证书，具备担任证券事务代表所必需的财务、 管理、法律等专业知识，具备良好的职业道德和个人品质，符合《上海证券交易所 股票上市规则》规定的任职条件。 邮箱：cdfir@ctg.cn 联系地址：北京市东城区东直门外小街甲2号-1正东国际大厦A座8层 特此公告。 1 公司证券事务代表联系方式如下： 联系电话：010-84479696 传真号 ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2024年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國旅遊集團中免股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2024年12月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01880 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 116,383,500 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 116,383,500 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 116,383,500 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 116,383,500 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | ...

Key Points Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Luxury retail and tourism - **Company**: A luxury retail company with a significant presence in China, particularly in Hainan Core Views and Arguments - **Hainan Market Performance**: - **Seasonality**: Hainan experiences a clear seasonal trend with peak sales during winter and the Chinese New Year. [1] - **Recent Developments**: The company is investing in enhancing customer experience and service at its stores in Hainan. [2] - **Supply Chain Improvement**: The company has improved its supply chain efficiency, reducing the time from purchase to delivery to as little as four hours. [5] - **Cost Optimization**: The company has established a regional operation center in Hainan to optimize resource allocation and reduce costs. [6] - **Online Sales**: - **Importance**: Online sales remain a significant revenue and profit contributor. [8] - **Strategies**: The company is continuously analyzing consumer trends and adjusting pricing and marketing strategies accordingly. [9] - **KOL Engagement**: The company encourages KOLs to promote its products on social media platforms like Xiaohongshu. [10] - **Capital Expenditure**: - **Electricity**: The company expects minimal capital expenditure for its electricity business, primarily due to existing contracts and the potential for expansion within existing properties. [12] - **Dividends and Repurchases**: The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40% or higher. [13] - **Retail Operations**: - **Efficiency Improvement**: The company is focused on improving operational efficiency across its retail operations, including procurement and inventory management. [14] - **Growth Opportunities**: The company is exploring opportunities to expand its product range, particularly in the areas of domestic luxury brands and international expansion. [15] Other Important Points - **Luxury Consumption Trends**: The company acknowledges the shift in luxury consumption patterns, with a focus on experience-based spending and the rise of domestic luxury brands. [16] - **Brand Collaboration**: The company is working closely with luxury brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions. [18] - **Domestic Luxury Brands**: The company is actively promoting domestic luxury brands within its stores and exploring opportunities for further collaboration. [19] - **Overall Outlook**: Despite the challenging environment, the company remains optimistic about its future performance, driven by its focus on operational efficiency and strategic initiatives. [21]

证券代码：601888 证券简称：中国中免 公告编号：临2024-037 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 董 事 会 2024 年 11 月 27 日 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《公司法》等法律法规及《公司章程》的规定，于晖先生的辞职报告自送 达董事会之日起生效。于晖先生的辞职不会影响公司的正常生产运营。公司将按照 有关规定尽快完成新任总会计师的聘任工作。 公司董事会对于晖先生在担任总会计师期间为公司做出的贡献表示衷心的感谢！ 特此公告。 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 关于总会计师辞职的公告 近日，中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会收到总会 计师于晖先生递交的书面辞职报告。因工作调动原因，于晖先生申请辞去公司总会 计师职务。辞职后，于晖先生将不在公司及控股子公司担任任何职务。截至本公告 披露日，于晖先生未持有公司股份。 于晖先生确认，其与公司及董事会之间无任何意见分歧，亦无任何与其辞职有 关的事项须提请公司股东注意。 ...