Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "immediate purchase and refund" policy is expected to enhance the convenience for foreign tourists and stimulate local consumption, particularly benefiting companies like China Duty Free Group, which holds an 81.74% market share in the domestic duty-free market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "immediate purchase and refund" policy allows foreign tourists to claim VAT refunds on purchases made in designated stores, enhancing the shopping experience and potentially increasing the willingness to make repeat purchases [2]. - The policy is being expanded from pilot regions to nationwide implementation, which is anticipated to boost consumption among inbound tourists [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The duty-free channel is expected to maintain its price advantage due to the exemption from import tariffs, consumption taxes, and VAT, making it an attractive option for consumers [3]. - The sales figures for offshore duty-free shopping in Hainan showed a decline in early 2025, but there are signs of stabilization in per capita spending, indicating a potential recovery in the market [3]. Group 3: Company Outlook - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting EPS of 2.26, 2.56, and 2.91 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and has raised its target prices for A and H shares to 79.1 yuan and 73.08 HKD, reflecting confidence in the company's leading position and growth potential in the duty-free sector [4].

Group 1 - China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. (China Duty Free) experienced a significant stock decline of 3.22% on April 11 [1] - The company was established in 2008 and is primarily engaged in business services, with a registered capital of approximately 20.69 billion RMB [1] - In the fourth quarter of the previous year, Invesco Great Wall Fund's Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed A reduced its holdings in China Duty Free [1] Group 2 - The fund manager of Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed A is Liu Yanchun, who has a Master's degree in Management and extensive experience in the investment sector [2][3] - Liu Yanchun has been with Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., Ltd. since January 2015 and currently serves as the assistant general manager and head of the research department [2][3] - The fund has a year-to-date return of 1.09%, ranking 1158 out of 4559 in its category [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an upward adjustment [11]. Core Viewpoints - The company focuses on domestic demand and innovation, aiming to expand its business footprint through strategic partnerships and market development, particularly in the "Belt and Road" regions and Southeast Asia [2][9]. - The company has established itself as a leader in China's duty-free industry, leveraging its core competitive advantages in channels, scale, operational management, and brand recognition [2][9]. - The report forecasts steady revenue growth, with expected net profits of 4.296 billion, 4.383 billion, and 4.524 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 33.81, 33.14, and 32.11 times, respectively [2][52]. Policy Support and Domestic Focus - In 2023, various government policies aimed at boosting consumption have been introduced, emphasizing the importance of tourism consumption, particularly in the duty-free shopping sector [6][15]. - The government has outlined plans to expand cultural and tourism consumption, improve duty-free policies, and establish more duty-free shops [6][15]. Market Recovery and Growth - The global duty-free and travel retail market is projected to achieve a sales volume of 73.73 billion USD (approximately 530 billion yuan) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [7][19]. - The recovery in global travel and tourism is expected to drive growth in the duty-free sector, with significant increases in sales from airport and onboard channels [7][16]. - The report highlights that the duty-free industry is poised for new growth opportunities, benefiting from the positive outlook of the tourism sector and consumer preferences [8][36]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 56.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% [52]. - The report indicates a significant decline in revenue from key regions, with Hainan's revenue dropping by 27.13% and Shanghai's by 10.02% [52]. - The company's comprehensive gross margin slightly increased to 32.03%, while the sales expense ratio rose to 16.05%, impacting net profit margins [55]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a stabilization and potential recovery in Hainan's duty-free sales, with growth expected in airport and port sales as outbound travel increases [52]. - The company is expected to leverage its core channel positions and procurement advantages to navigate through the current demand downturn and return to a growth trajectory [52].

Core Insights - On April 10, China Duty Free Group (中国中免) made its first appearance on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list in a month, with a trading volume of 1.655 billion HKD and a net sell of 0.046 billion HKD, closing down 1.32% [1][2] Trading Activity Summary - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect on April 10 was 85.510 billion HKD, accounting for 48.89% of the day's total trading amount, with a net sell of 17.382 billion HKD [1] - The top three stocks by trading volume were: - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (盈富基金) with 15.262 billion HKD - Tencent Holdings (腾讯控股) with 14.538 billion HKD - Alibaba Group (阿里巴巴-W) with 14.021 billion HKD [1] - The most frequently listed stocks in the past month were Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings, each appearing 22 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect investors [1] Individual Stock Performance - China Duty Free Group's trading details on April 10: - Trading Amount: 1.655 billion HKD - Net Buy Amount: -0.046 billion HKD - Latest Closing Price: 55.950 HKD - Daily Change: -1.32% [2]

● 公司A股股票于2025年4月8日至2025年4月10日连续3个交易日内日收盘价 格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，根据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的有关规定，属于 股票交易异常波动情形。 ● 经公司自查并向公司控股股东书面发函查证，截至本公告披露日，不存在应 披露而未披露的重大事项和风险事项。 ● 公司敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 一、股票交易异常波动的具体情况 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）A股股票交易于2025年4 月8日至2025年4月10日连续3个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%。根据 《上海证券交易所交易规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动情形。 二、公司关注并核实的相关情况 证券代码：601888 证券简称：中国中免 公告编号：临2025-012 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 股票交易异常波动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 针对公司A股股票交易异常波动情况，公司对有关事项进行了自查，并书面征 询了公司控股股东中国旅游集团有限 ...

2、本公司未于 2025年 4 月 8 日至 2025年 4 月 10 日期间内买卖 你公司股票。 特此函复。 你公司发来的《关于中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司股票交易异 常波动征询函》已收阅,经认真核查,现就征询的有关事项回复如下: 1、本公司作为你公司控股股东,截至目前,不存在涉及你公司 的应披露而未披露的重大信息,包括但不限于重大资产重组、股份发 行、重大交易类事项、债务重组、业务重组、股份回购、股权激励、 破产重整、重大业务合作、引进战略投资者等重大事项。 中国旅游集团有限公司 关于中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 股票交易异常波动的回函 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司: ...

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888) announced that its A-share stock experienced an abnormal trading fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days from April 8 to April 10, 2025 [1] Company Summary - The company conducted a self-examination and confirmed, after consulting with its controlling shareholder, that there are no undisclosed significant matters or risk issues [1] - Daily operational activities of the company are normal and orderly, with no significant changes reported in its main business operations and fundamentals [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious of secondary market trading risks and to make rational investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group's stock price has experienced significant short-term volatility, with a cumulative deviation of over 20% in closing prices over three consecutive trading days [1] Company Summary - The company's main business and fundamentals have not undergone any significant changes [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious of trading risks in the secondary market and to make rational decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The State Taxation Administration of China has announced the nationwide promotion of the "immediate refund" service for outbound travelers, enhancing the shopping experience for foreign tourists and potentially boosting the inbound tourism market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The "immediate refund" policy allows foreign travelers to receive a refund in RMB at the point of purchase after signing an agreement and pre-authorizing a credit card, creating a "shopping-refund-reconsume" cycle [1]. - This policy is expected to significantly increase the attractiveness of shopping in China for foreign tourists, especially in conjunction with the "240-hour" visa-free policy and recent RMB exchange rate trends [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Previous trials of the "immediate refund" policy in cities like Shanghai and Beijing have already shown substantial growth in inbound consumption, with the number of travelers, sales of refund-eligible goods, and total refunds increasing by 2.3 times, 1.2 times, and 1.3 times respectively in 2024 [2]. - Analysts predict that if the penetration rate of outbound tax refund travelers reaches 15%, it could result in approximately 21.8 million travelers annually, leading to a potential sales volume of 109 billion RMB in future years [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the "immediate refund" policy, stocks in the duty-free sector have surged, with companies like Zhongbai Group experiencing multiple trading halts due to price increases, and China Duty Free's stock rising over 24% in three trading days [3].

中国中免（601888）24 年年报点评： 关注市内免税政策落地 渠道拓展巩固出入境免税业务优势：2024 年中免积极拓宽渠道，中标广州白 云国际机场、昆明长水机场等 10 个机场及口岸免税项目经营权。现有的北京 机场（首都国际机场、大兴国际机场等）免税店收入同比增长 115%以上，上 海机场（浦东国际机场、虹桥国际机场等）免税店门店收入同比增长 32%左 右，展现出出入境市场消费复苏态势良好，具备较强发展潜力。 市内免税有望带来新增长点：2024 年 8 月《关于完善市内免税店政策的通 知》为中免发展市内免税店业务提供政策支撑。24 年末中免大连市内免税店 开业，且预计其中标的深圳、广州、西安等 6 家免税店有望短期内带动营收 增长。 投资建议 事件描述 公司 24 年全年表现符合之前业绩快报披露值：年收入 564.7 亿元，yoy- 16.4%；归母净利润 42.7 亿元，yoy-36.4%；扣非归母净利润 41.4 亿元，yoy- 37.7%。 公司 24 年 Q4 营收 134.5 亿元，yoy-19.5%；营业利润 7.2 亿元，yoy-66%； 归母净利润 3.5 亿元，yoy-76.9%；扣非归 ...