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新型烟草行业跟踪:英美烟草发布 FY2025 财报,新型烟草收入占比提升,25H2 增长加速
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-13 11:06
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the new tobacco industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - British American Tobacco achieved total revenue of £25.61 billion in FY2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% (an increase of 2.1% year-on-year at constant exchange rates). Revenue from new tobacco products reached £3.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% (7.0% at constant exchange rates), accounting for 14.1% of total revenue, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. In H2 2025, revenue from new tobacco products was £1.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with a revenue share of 14.5% [2][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Traditional Tobacco Trends - The decline in traditional tobacco is evident, with a forecasted global cigarette volume decline of approximately 2% in 2026. New tobacco products are expected to be the core growth engine, with projected low double-digit growth in revenue for 2026 [6] Product Categories - **Heated Not Burned (HNB)**: Revenue for HNB products decreased by 0.7% year-on-year (an increase of 1.0% at constant exchange rates). The decline in cigarette sales was 3.7% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified market competition and resource allocation issues related to the early launch of Glo Hilo. Glo's global market share decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 14.9% [6] - **Oral Tobacco**: The modern oral tobacco segment saw a revenue increase of 47.4% year-on-year (48.0% at constant exchange rates). The market share for all oral products and new oral tobacco increased by 5.8 and 7.5 percentage points to 17.1% and 33.4%, respectively [6] - **Vaping Products**: Revenue from vaping products decreased by 10.4% year-on-year (8.6% at constant exchange rates). The decline in sales was 12.6% year-on-year, mainly due to illegal products in the U.S. and Canada, as well as regulatory changes in some European countries. Vuse maintained its global leadership with a market share increase of 0.6 percentage points to 38.8% [6] Investment Perspective - With the acceleration of the global new tobacco process, companies with core barriers or resource positioning in the industry present investment opportunities. Key focuses include four major international tobacco companies and two product categories (HNB and oral tobacco). Specific investment targets include Smoore International for HNB and vaping, and China National Tobacco for long-term positioning [6]
氢能周度观察(10):工信部明确发挥新型举国体制优势,推动氢能等攻关突破-20260213
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-13 08:51
联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 氢能周度观察(10):工信部明确发挥新型举国 体制优势,推动氢能等攻关突破 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 2 月 3 日,工信部党委会明确将氢能定为推动攻关突破领域的第 4 位,值得重视。2026 年 1 月氢能产业政策密集推进:1)顶层机制与标准体系加速完善;2)地方政策不断精细化与 场景化,着力降低全生命周期成本;3)电力市场机制破冰,探索绿电直连机制;4)重大项目 与试点示范持续推进,形成产业拉动效应。展望"十五五",预计氢能产业将向规模化、商业化 深度演进,重视氢能标的投资机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 司鸿历 贾少波 SAC:S0490517090001 SAC:S0490520080002 SAC:S0490520070003 SFC:BUV415 SFC:BVD284 李博文 盛意 SAC:S0490524080004 SAC:S0490525070006 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 7 %% %% % ...
裕同科技(002831):拟收购华研科技51%股权,打开第二增长曲线
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-13 08:42
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨裕同科技(002831.SZ) [Table_Title] 裕同科技: 拟收购华研科技 51%股权,打开第二增长曲线 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 裕同科技拟收购华研科技 51%股权要点:1)关联交易:对手方为观点投资,由裕同科技实控 人夫妇全资持有。2)收购价、业绩承诺和估值定价:华研科技 51%股权对价 4.488 亿元,即 华研科技整体估值 8.8 亿元,业绩承诺 26/27/28 年扣非净利润不低于 0.75/1.00/1.55 亿元(3 年平均值 1.1 亿元),对应 PE 为 8 倍;业绩承诺期满后,若华研科技累计利润不足承诺总额的 80%,观点投资需向裕同补偿,反之,若实际平均扣非净利润达到承诺均值的 120%及以上, 整体估值将向上调整(最高不超过 13.2 亿元,对应 PE 为 10 倍),裕同需向观点投资补偿。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 蔡方羿 仲敏丽 SAC:S0490516060001 SAC:S0490522050001 SFC:BUV463 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% ...
广发证券(000776):深度报告:大湾区迈向国际一流的财富管理先驱
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-13 05:08
[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨广发证券(000776.SZ) [Table_Title] 广发证券深度报告:大湾区迈向国际一流的财富 管理先驱 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 随着慢牛市延续,财富管理有望迎来黄金发展期,广发证券凭借区位优势、多元化布局、市场 化机制,围绕财富管理业务形成较强先发优势。展望中长期,一方面财富管理成券商竞争"胜 负手",广发成长潜质优于同业,另一方面公司发力国际业务,强化跨境综合能力,自营也有望 受益于风控指标优化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC:S0490519080007 SAC:S0490524070001 SFC:BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 广发证券(000776.SZ) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 广发证券深度报告:大湾区迈向国际一流的财 2] 富管理先驱 以区 ...
固定收益|点评报告:信用:守住票息
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-12 23:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Recent bond market fluctuations have slowed, with credit bonds performing slightly better than interest rate bonds, mainly driven by institutional allocation behavior. Banks' asset allocation has shifted from "bond - loan resonance" to "bond - substitution for loan", and credit bonds have become a key focus. Insurance funds are increasing their allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds due to the dominance of dividend - paying insurance during the "good start" period. The continuous net inflow of funds at the liability end of funds supports the market of credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds. It is suggested to focus on 5 - year AA - rated medium - and short - term notes, AAA - and AA + commercial bank perpetual bonds, and explore the structural opportunities of credit bonds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Bank Bond - Loan Allocation: From Resonance to Substitution - Since the beginning of the year, large - scale banks' bond purchases have significantly exceeded market expectations, leading to a decline in the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds. By reviewing the data from 2023 - 2025, it is found that the substitution effect of bond investment for credit lending in 2025 was more significant than in previous years. The bond - loan allocation behavior of banks can be summarized into three combination models: "strong in both bonds and loans", "weak in both bonds and loans", and "one rising while the other falling". The increase in credit bond allocation by banks has become a key way to make up for the asset gap and rebalance risk and return, and has also stabilized the credit bond market [17][21]. Insurance "Good Start" Funds Drive Credit Bond Allocation - Based on the structural characteristics of insurance premium income in 2025, the incremental demand for insurance funds to allocate credit bonds may continue to increase in 2026, with the "good start" funds being the main driving force. In 2025, the insurance industry's original insurance premium income reached 6.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. In 2026, dividend - paying insurance products dominated the "good start" sales, which have higher requirements for investment returns and are expected to guide insurance funds to increase their allocation of credit bonds [25]. New Features of Insurance Allocation: The Development of Dividend - Paying Insurance Benefits Medium - and Long - Term Credit Bonds - At the beginning of 2026, insurance funds showed a clear maturity preference for credit bond allocation, with medium - and long - term credit bonds becoming the core of increased allocation. In the first two weeks of January, the net purchase of medium - and long - term credit bonds by insurance institutions accounted for 84% and 94% of the total net purchase of credit bonds. The planned annual increase in holdings of this type of bonds is 39%. This change is mainly driven by the transformation of the liability side. It is expected that the trend of increasing the allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds by insurance in February 2026 will continue [30]. Tier 2 Capital Bonds: Funds and Insurance Show a Strong Allocation Pattern - Since the beginning of 2026, in the 6 - week period, the market for 3 - to 5 - year Tier 2 capital bonds has shown a pattern of "strong allocation by funds and insurance". Fund companies and products have maintained a high level of buying, with a cumulative net purchase of 759.85 billion yuan. Insurance funds have also strengthened their allocation, with a net purchase of 422.47 billion yuan. The demand for wealth - management products has been stable, with a net purchase of 40.45 billion yuan [37]. Which is Better: Urban Investment Bonds or Industrial Bonds? Based on Historical Price - Ratio Rules - The yields of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds of the same rating and maturity are not completely comparable. Referring to historical price - ratio rules, when the yield of AAA urban investment bonds is about 2bp higher than that of the same - maturity AAA industrial bonds, and when the yield of AA + urban investment bonds is about 2bp lower than that of the same - maturity AA + industrial bonds, it is a better allocation point. Industrial bonds show greater internal differentiation, while urban investment bonds have more convergent pricing. Different rating and maturity bonds have different allocation recommendations based on historical quantiles [40]. Variety Allocation Strategy: Explore Industrial Spreads and Focus on Interest Rate Defense - Considering the current spread quantiles, valuation levels, and market rotation rhythm, the recommended priority for next - week's credit bond allocation is: 5 - year AA - rated medium - and short - term notes > 5 - year AAA - commercial bank perpetual bonds > 5 - year AA + commercial bank perpetual bonds. The main reasons are that the 5 - year AA - rated medium - and short - term notes have obvious allocation value, the 5 - year China Development Bank bonds still have thick spread protection, and the 5 - year AAA - and AA + commercial bank perpetual bonds have room for performance due to the spread compression of medium - and long - term Tier 2 capital bonds [45].
1月美国非农就业数据点评:就业超预期,降息就更远了吗?
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-12 13:12
报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490520090001 SFC:BUX667 丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 就业超预期,降息就更远了吗? ——1 月美国非农就业数据点评 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月美国劳动力市场数据全线超预期:受教育和保健就业改善拉动,新增非农就业人 数大幅高于预期,失业率延续回落,但核心服务通胀压力有所升温。总的来看,就业超预期, 但也不应过于高估其改善幅度,就业慢降温仍是基准情形,故对年内降息节奏判断并无影响。 往前看,1)短期来看,鲍威尔任期内降息暂缓已是基线预期,就业超预期对此并无影响;2) 5 月沃什就任后,考虑到其"降息+缩表、缩职能"的基本政策主张,加之届时关税对通胀的影 响大概率基本显现,降息阻碍不大,再度开启降息可能性较大,年内预计累计降息至少 50BP。 %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 1 于博 敬成宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com %% %% [Table_Title 就业超预期,降息就更远了吗? 2] ...
AI 应用正当时:智谱发布 GLM-5,模型进入需求时代
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-12 08:54
宗建树 郭敬超 刘思缘 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525120002 SFC:BUX668 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 应用正当时:智谱发布 GLM-5,模型进入需 求时代 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2 月 12 日,GLM-5 正式发布。模型正式进入需求时代。国内模型之前 API 价格大幅低于海外, 伴随模型逐步追赶好用性实用性提升正式进入需求驱动时代。智谱模型涨价验证新时代开启, 国内模型厂商 MaaS 业务有望迎来大爆发,毛利率有望快速提升。同时模型的变化有望驱动云 基础资源及国产算力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title AI 应用正当时:智谱发布 2] GLM-5,模型进入需 求时代 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2 月 12 日,公司正式发布 GLM-5。 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2026-02-12 行业研究丨点 ...
行业研究|行业周报|通信设备Ⅲ:通信周观点:云巨头Capex指引跃增,InP产能紧缺催生长协-20260212
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-12 08:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication equipment sector [10]. Core Insights - The communication sector experienced a decline of 6.91% in the fifth week of 2026, ranking 31st among major industries in the Yangtze River region. Year-to-date, the sector is down 1.86%, ranking 29th [2][5]. - Major cloud players, Google Cloud and AWS, reported significant growth in capital expenditures (Capex) for 2026, with Google Cloud's profit margin reaching a historic high of 30% and AWS revenue growth at 23.6%, the highest in nearly three years. This indicates strong investment in AI computing infrastructure [2][8]. - Lumentum and Coherent, leading companies in optical communication, reported impressive earnings growth, driven by strong demand for InP optical chips, which are currently in short supply, leading to long-term agreements (LTA) to secure supply [2][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the fifth week of 2026, the communication sector fell by 6.91%, with a year-to-date decline of 1.86%. The top three gainers among companies with a market cap over 8 billion yuan were Tongding Interconnection (+18.6%), Changfei Fiber (+17.2%), and Jiangsu Communication (+11.3%). The largest decliners were Zhongji Xuchuang (-16.8%), Lian Te Technology (-14.7%), and Shijia Photon (-14.4%) [2][5]. Cloud Computing Insights - Google reported Q4 2025 revenue of $113.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, with cloud revenue at $17.66 billion, up 47.8%. The operating profit margin for the cloud business reached 30.1%, a 12.6 percentage point increase year-on-year. For 2026, Google has guided Capex between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly doubling from the previous year [6]. - Amazon's Q4 2025 revenue was $211.49 billion, a 12.6% year-on-year increase, with AWS revenue at $35.58 billion, growing 23.6%, the highest growth rate in 13 quarters. Amazon's Capex for 2026 is projected to be around $200 billion, a 52% increase year-on-year, primarily directed towards AWS [6]. Optical Communication Developments - Lumentum reported FY26Q2 revenue of $670 million, a 65.5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of $80 million, marking a return to profitability. The company is experiencing a supply-demand gap of 25%-30% for InP chips and has initiated long-term agreements to secure supply [7]. - Coherent's FY26Q2 revenue was $1.69 billion, up 17.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of $150 million, a 41.9% increase. The company is ramping up production capacity for its unique 6-inch InP wafer line, expecting to double capacity by FY26Q4 [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments: - Telecom operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication - Liquid cooling: Yingweike - Air-core fiber: Fenghuo Communication, Hengtong Optic-Electric - Domestic computing: Runze Technology, Guanghuan New Network - AI applications: Boshi Jie, Heertai - Satellite applications: Huace Navigation, Haige Communication [8].
2026年第6周计算机行业周报:千问宕机,关注算力基础设施投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-12 01:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The computer sector experienced a significant decline of 3.53% last week, ranking 29th among major industries, with a trading volume accounting for 6.50% of the total market [2][4] - The recent surge in demand for AI applications has highlighted a shortage of computing power, prompting major AI companies like Alibaba to increase their procurement of computing resources [6][45] - Key recommendations include focusing on domestic computing chip manufacturers, particularly industry leaders like Cambricon and Haiguang Information, as well as companies involved in computing power leasing and IDC [6][45] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector's performance was notably poor, with a 3.53% drop, while the overall market index fell by 1.27% [4][14] - Active sectors included cybersecurity and financial IT, with notable stock performances from companies like High凌信息 and 御银股份 [16] Key Developments - ByteDance launched its latest video model, Seedance 2.0, which supports video generation from text and images, marking a significant advancement in AI video technology [19][21] - Breakthroughs in quantum networking were achieved by researchers at the University of Science and Technology of China, enabling long-distance quantum communication [26][35] - The initiation of national standards for intelligent connected infrastructure is expected to accelerate the development of smart transportation systems [36][43] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the investment potential in computing infrastructure due to the recent surge in demand highlighted by the 千问 app's promotional activities, which led to system outages due to overwhelming user traffic [6][45] - The ongoing competition among major tech firms during the Spring Festival is expected to further drive the demand for computing resources [49][53]
长安汽车:回购计划开启强化信心,智能、电动化加速推进-20260212
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-12 00:45
[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨长安汽车(000625.SZ) [Table_Title] 长安汽车:回购计划开启强化信心,智能、电动 化加速推进 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 2 月 4 日,长安汽车公告股份回购计划,拟通过自有资金回购资金总额不低于 10 亿元 (含)且不超过 20 亿元(含)。自主新能源销量同环比大幅增长,产品结构优化推动营收提升。 公司打造新品能力强,自主转型,电动智能助力新阶段开启,海外布局快速发展。公司电动智 能化转型加速推进,出海加速,带动销量持续向好,新央企平台,效率提升持续赋能。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524030004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 长安汽车(000625.SZ) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 长安汽车:回购计划开启强化信心,智能、 2] 电动 化加速推进 ...