Eli Lilly Stock Down 8.2% in a Month: Should You Buy the Dip?

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company is facing challenges due to global uncertainties and competitive dynamics, but it has strong growth prospects driven by its key products Mounjaro and Zepbound, alongside a robust pipeline of new drugs. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Dynamics - Eli Lilly's shares have declined by 8.2% in the past month, largely due to global uncertainties from the tariff war and fears of a recession [1] - The stock has outperformed the industry, which has decreased by 4.1%, and the S&P 500 index [15][26] - Despite a 1.7% decline in stock price this year, Lilly's market cap exceeds $700 billion, reflecting a 420.3$16.5 billion in 2024, accounting for approximately 36% of total revenues [3] - Sales growth of Mounjaro and Zepbound was impacted by supply and channel dynamics in the second half of 2024, raising concerns about demand [4] - Lilly expects to launch Mounjaro in new international markets in 2025, which is anticipated to boost sales [6] Group 3: New Drug Approvals and Pipeline - The FDA approved Zepbound for a second indication, which is expected to drive sales higher [7] - Lilly has gained approvals for several new drugs, including Omvoh and Jaypirca, contributing significantly to top-line growth in 2024 [8] - The company is making rapid progress in its pipeline, with several mid to late-stage readouts expected in 2025 [9] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is projected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, with Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominating [10] - Several companies, including Amgen and Viking Therapeutics, are developing GLP-1-based candidates that could pose competition to Lilly's products [12] - Other pharmaceutical companies are also entering the obesity space, which may threaten Lilly's market position [14] Group 5: Financial Outlook and Shareholder Returns - Lilly expects revenues in the range of$58.0 billion to $61.0 billion in 2025, indicating a 32$3 billion to shareholders in 2024 through share repurchases and dividends, and has approved a new $15 billion stock buyback plan [29]