Eli Lilly And Co LLY will be reporting its first-quarter earnings on Thursday. Wall Street expects $3.05 in EPS and $12.67 billion in revenues as the company reports before market hours.The stock is up 14.35% over the past year, 14.79% YTD.Let’s examine the charts for Eli Lilly stock and how it currently compares to Wall Street estimates.Read Also: $1000 Invested In This Stock 20 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much TodayLLY Stock Chart Strongly Bullish Ahead Of Q1 EarningsChart created using Benzinga ProEli ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Eli Lilly is the most valuable healthcare company globally, with a market cap of approximately $800 billion, and is considered a promising long-term investment due to its dominance in the GLP-1 drug market [1] - The company experienced a 32% increase in sales last year, driven by the popularity of its GLP-1 drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, which generated a combined $16.5 billion in sales [2][6] Group 2: Legal and Market Challenges - Eli Lilly is suing compounding pharmacies that have been offering knock-off versions of its GLP-1 drugs, which could divert sales and negatively impact the brand's perception if patients experience side effects from these unapproved products [3][4] Group 3: Future Growth Catalysts - Eli Lilly is developing a daily weight loss pill, orforglipron, which could significantly change the industry landscape, as current GLP-1 treatments are injectables [5] - Positive results from a late-stage trial of orforglipron indicate potential for weight loss and blood sugar reduction, boosting investor confidence [6] - The company plans to release data from nine studies related to orforglipron's performance throughout the year, with the final results expected in October [7] - Approval for orforglipron could occur next year, and strong trial results may lead to significant stock price increases [8] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite trading at over 70 times its trailing earnings, Eli Lilly is viewed as a potentially strong buy due to anticipated growth, especially if the weight loss and diabetes pill receives approval [9]

Group 1 - Eli Lilly and Company has experienced favorable conditions in the obesity and adjacent markets over the last couple of quarters [2] - The main competitor in this space is Novo Nordisk A/S, indicating a competitive landscape [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of tracking portfolio and watchlist stocks closely to identify attractive risk/reward situations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company is set to report its first-quarter earnings on May 1, with sales and earnings estimates at $12.62 billion and $3.52 per share, respectively. However, earnings estimates for 2025 have seen a decline from $23.53 to $22.43 per share over the past month [1][4]. Earnings Performance - The company has had a mixed earnings performance, exceeding expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 8.47% [2][3]. Earnings Estimates and Trends - Current earnings estimates for Q1, Q2, 2025, and 2026 are $3.52, $5.58, $22.43, and $31.15 per share, respectively. Notably, the earnings estimate for Q1 has decreased by 22.30% over the past month [1][4]. Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Top-line growth in Q1 is expected to be driven by demand for FDA-approved tirzepatide medicines, specifically the diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine Zepbound. However, sales of these drugs were below expectations in the latter half of 2024 due to slower growth and unfavorable channel dynamics [5][6]. Sales Estimates for Key Products - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mounjaro and Zepbound is $3.75 billion and $2.27 billion, respectively, while the company's estimates are $3.82 billion and $2.19 billion. Increased demand for other key growth drugs is also anticipated to support top-line growth [8][10]. Competitive Landscape - Sales of Trulicity are expected to decline due to competitive dynamics and lower realized prices in the U.S., with patient switches to Mounjaro impacting its performance [9][22]. The obesity market is becoming increasingly competitive, with several companies developing GLP-1-based candidates [23][24]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Lilly's stock has risen 14.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 index. The stock is currently trading at a premium compared to the industry [13][16]. Investment Outlook - Despite challenges, including declining sales of key products and increasing competition, the company is viewed as having robust growth prospects, particularly with new product launches and expansions planned for 2025 [20][25].

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly And Co (NYSE: LLY) has experienced a double downgrade from HSBC, with a price target cut, raising concerns about competition and valuation [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Eli Lilly's stock is currently trading at $870.31, down 1.6% following the downgrade [1] - Despite the recent decline, the stock has a year-to-date gain of 12.8% and is trading above the 200-day moving average [2] Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Prior to the downgrade, 22 out of 25 analysts had a "buy" or better rating on the stock, with a 12-month consensus target price of $998.05, indicating a 14.3% premium to current levels [1] Group 3: Options Market Sentiment - Short-term options traders are showing bearish sentiment, as indicated by a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.13, which is in the 95th percentile of the past 12 months [3]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company is set to report its first-quarter earnings on May 1, with sales and earnings estimates at $12.62 billion and $3.52 per share respectively, while earnings estimates for 2025 have seen a decline from $23.53 to $22.43 per share over the past month [1][4]. Earnings Performance - The company has exceeded earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 8.47% [2][3]. - The last reported quarter showed an earnings surprise of 5.77% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Trends - Current earnings estimates for Q1, Q2, 2025, and 2026 are $3.52, $5.58, $22.43, and $31.15 respectively, with a notable decline in Q1 estimates from $4.64 to $3.52 over the past 30 days, reflecting a -22.30% revision [1][4]. Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Top-line growth in Q1 is expected to be driven by demand for FDA-approved tirzepatide medicines, specifically diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine Zepbound [5]. - Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations in the latter half of 2024, attributed to slower growth and unfavorable channel dynamics [5][6]. - The FDA's approval of Zepbound for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea is anticipated to contribute positively to sales [7]. Sales Estimates for Key Products - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mounjaro and Zepbound is $3.75 billion and $2.27 billion respectively, while internal estimates are $3.82 billion and $2.19 billion [8]. - Sales estimates for other drugs include Trulicity at $1.11 billion, Taltz at $663 million, Verzenio at $1.25 billion, Jardiance at $675 million, Olumiant at $228 million, and Emgality at $220 million [10]. Competitive Landscape - Lilly faces competition in the diabetes and obesity market, particularly from Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, with several companies developing GLP-1-based candidates that could threaten market dominance [22][23]. - Despite competition, Lilly is investing in obesity treatments and has new molecules in clinical development, including a promising oral GLP-1 agonist [24]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Lilly's stock has increased by 14.8% this year, outperforming the industry average of 1.5% [13]. - The stock is currently trading at a premium compared to the industry [16]. Investment Outlook - Despite challenges, Lilly is viewed as a strong investment due to its robust growth prospects and position as a leading drugmaker [25].

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's extensive background in biomedicine and bioengineering, emphasizing over 20 years of experience in the research and development of novel Cell & Gene Therapies (CGT) aimed at addressing various clinical needs [1] - The author aims to leverage their expertise in life sciences to evaluate the potential of innovative treatments, particularly those utilizing CGT, and their ability to generate shareholder returns [1] Group 1 - The author has a Master of Science in Biomedicine and a PhD in Bioengineering, highlighting a strong academic foundation in relevant fields [1] - The focus will be on analyzing biotechnology, pharmaceutical, Medtech, and healthcare stocks, providing insights into company performance and market potential [1] Group 2 - The author is associated with another contributor but emphasizes independent work and adherence to guidelines [1] - There is a clear statement of no current stock or derivative positions in the companies mentioned, indicating an unbiased perspective [2]

Core Viewpoint - An analyst from BMO Capital has reduced the price target for Eli Lilly's stock despite positive news regarding its pipeline drug, indicating a complex market sentiment towards the company [1][2]. Company Summary - The new price target for Eli Lilly is set at $900 per share, reflecting a decrease of $110 from the previous assessment, while the analyst maintains an outperform recommendation [2]. - The analyst expressed optimism about Eli Lilly's obesity drug, Zepbound, which is reportedly outperforming Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, the only other FDA-approved GLP-1 treatment for weight loss [3][4]. - Concerns were raised regarding the broader macroeconomic environment, suggesting that economic pressures are impacting the healthcare sector, making Eli Lilly vulnerable [3]. Industry Summary - The pharmaceutical sector is viewed as more resilient compared to other industries amid a volatile global macroeconomy, as many drugs, including obesity treatments, are considered essential for patients [5]. - The ongoing trade war is expected to contribute to economic instability, but pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly are better insulated from these pressures [5].

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly is taking legal action against four telehealth companies for selling compounded versions of its weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro, alleging consumer deception and violation of FDA regulations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Allegations - Eli Lilly has filed lawsuits against Mochi Health, Fella Health, Willow Health, and Henry Meds, accusing them of marketing "untested, unapproved drugs" and misleading consumers away from Lilly's products [2]. - The company claims these telehealth platforms are falsely presenting their offerings as personalized treatments while actually mass-marketing variations of Lilly's drugs to evade FDA scrutiny [3]. - Lilly's lawsuits also assert that some of these companies are selling unstudied formulations, including oral tablets and drops, which have not undergone proper clinical testing [3]. Group 2: Market Context and Compounding Practices - The shortage of Lilly's diabetes drug Mounjaro in late 2022 led to pharmacies and outsourcing facilities engaging in compounding practices, creating a market for alternative versions of GLP-1 drugs [4][5]. - Despite the FDA declaring the shortage over, some pharmacies continued to produce compounded versions of tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Mounjaro and Zepbound, potentially avoiding regulatory action [5][6]. - The online market for compounded drugs surged as consumers sought alternatives when brand-name drugs were unavailable or not covered by insurance [5]. Group 3: Company Responses and Future Implications - Mochi Health, one of the companies being sued, expressed intentions to continue selling compounded versions of tirzepatide, believing that personalized treatment offerings would protect them legally [7]. - Lilly's legal filings claim that Mochi's CEO is not a licensed physician and that the company exerts undue influence over prescribing decisions, which constitutes the "unlawful corporate practice of medicine" [8]. - Lilly is seeking to prevent these telehealth companies from marketing or selling tirzepatide, but the legal process may take months or longer to resolve [8].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's stock price has increased by 11% since November of the previous year, indicating positive market sentiment and performance [1] Company Analysis - Eli Lilly is recognized as a leader in the weight loss sector, suggesting a strong position within the industry [1] Market Context - The increase in Eli Lilly's stock price is supported by favorable market multiples, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth potential [1]