CGS(601881) 智通财经网·2025-04-22 01:44Group 1: Industry Overview - The air conditioning industry is experiencing steady growth in domestic sales and an optimized export structure, with leading companies effectively mitigating tariff risks through overseas production layouts [1][3] - The domestic air conditioning retail sales in Q1 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 4.2% online and 12.6% offline, with a total shipment volume of 12.78 million units in March 2025, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year growth [1] - The industry is optimistic about future domestic air conditioning demand, supported by government subsidies and a low base in retail demand from April to July 2024 [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the air conditioning market has improved, with first and second-tier companies showing significant profitability, although retail prices have begun to decline as companies compete for market share [2] - Xiaomi's market share in air conditioning has stabilized since May 2024, with a notable increase in online retail sales by 84% in Q1 2025, although growth is expected to slow down in Q2 2025 due to a lack of low year-on-year base [2] Group 3: Export Dynamics - Air conditioning exports have exceeded expectations in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 36.1% and 24.5% in Q1 2025 [3] - Due to rising year-on-year bases and the shift of export orders to Thailand, actual export volumes are expected to fall below predicted production volumes in the coming months [3] - Leading companies like Midea have established overseas production capabilities, particularly in Thailand, which is becoming a key production base for air conditioning products [3] Group 4: Government Initiatives - The government has prioritized boosting consumption as a key task for 2025, implementing policies such as subsidies for replacing old consumer goods and promoting tax refund services for overseas shoppers [4] - New policies also emphasize the high-quality development of the heat pump industry, aiming for a 20% improvement in energy efficiency for key heat pump products by 2030 [4]