恒力石化(600346)：需求承压下业绩依旧稳健

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.239 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 31.88% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Refining and Chemical Products - The apparent consumption of refined oil in Q1 2025 was 92.82 million tons, a decrease of 4.38% year-on-year, indicating stable overall demand [2] - The average crack spreads for diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene were 1,001 yuan, 1,523 yuan, and 1,434 yuan per ton, showing a mixed trend with diesel and aviation kerosene spreads narrowing [2] - The average PX-crude oil crack spread was 2,354 yuan per ton, down 25.99% year-on-year, leading to a decline in product profitability [2] - The average crack spread for polyolefins was 3,267 yuan per ton, an increase of 14.32% year-on-year, but still in a bottoming phase [2] - The average PTA-PX crack spread was 256 yuan per ton, down 20.27% year-on-year, indicating pressure on chemical product profitability [2] Group 3: Cost Advantages - The average coal price in Q1 2025 was 724 yuan per ton, a decrease of 19.71% year-on-year and 12.28% quarter-on-quarter, enhancing the company's cost advantage [3] - The company has a coal chemical capacity of 5 million tons per year, benefiting from low coal prices for its heating and power generation needs [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see improved performance as the economy gradually recovers, with projected net profits of 7.4 billion yuan, 8.3 billion yuan, and 9.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [4] - Corresponding EPS estimates are 1.05 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.31 yuan, with PE ratios of 14.9X, 13.3X, and 11.9X respectively [4]