TGT vs. DG: Which Discount Retailer Stock Has Greater Upside?

Core Viewpoint - Target Corporation and Dollar General Corporation are leading players in the Retail–Discount Stores industry, with Target focusing on a combination of physical and digital presence, while Dollar General emphasizes value and accessibility for consumers [1][2]. Target Corporation - Target has a market capitalization of approximately $42.9 billion and operates 1,978 stores across the U.S., offering a diverse product range [1]. - The company aims to generate over$15 billion in revenue growth by fiscal 2030 through a strategy that includes opening more than 20 new stores and remodeling existing locations in fiscal 2025 [3][4]. - Target's investments in same-day delivery and digital services have led to a 25% growth in same-day services during the last quarter of fiscal 2024, with Target Circle membership increasing by 13 million in 2024 [4]. - The company plans to invest $4 billion to$5 billion in store remodels, supply-chain expansion, and digital transformation in fiscal 2025 [5]. - Target anticipates a challenging first quarter of fiscal 2025, expecting a year-over-year profit pressure and a slight decline in February net sales [6]. - The guidance for fiscal 2025 includes an expected net sales growth of approximately 1% and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) projected between $8.80 and$9.80, indicating limited upside from the previous year's $8.86 [7]. Dollar General Corporation - Dollar General has a market capitalization of around$21.3 billion and operates over 20,000 stores, focusing on everyday low prices and household essentials [2]. - The company is planning 4,885 real estate projects in fiscal 2025, including 575 new store openings in the U.S. and up to 15 outlets in Mexico, alongside 2,000 remodels and 2,250 upgrades under the "Project Elevate" initiative [9]. - Dollar General's "Project Elevate" has shown first-year comparable sales lifts of 3% to 5%, while "Project Renovate" aims for a 6% to 8% uplift [9]. - The retailer is expanding its digital capabilities, including a partnership with DoorDash for home delivery, currently live in around 400 stores, with plans to expand to 10,000 stores by the end of fiscal 2025 [10]. - Despite strategic initiatives, Dollar General expects a challenging first half of fiscal 2025 due to upfront costs and increased labor expenses, with anticipated EPS decline year-over-year during this period [11]. - Looking ahead, Dollar General targets annual net sales growth of 3.5%-4% starting in fiscal 2025, with same-store sales growth of 2%-3% from fiscal 2026 onward and projected adjusted EPS growth of at least 10% annually starting in 2026 [12]. Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Target's current fiscal year sales implies a year-over-year growth of 0.9%, while Dollar General's sales suggest a growth of 3.7% [13]. - Year-to-date stock performance shows Target shares have declined by 30.3%, while Dollar General shares have increased by 27.7% [14]. - Target's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 10.3, below its one-year median of 14.77, whereas Dollar General's forward P/E ratio stands at 17.02, higher than its median of 13.62 [17]. - Overall, Dollar General appears to have a slight edge over Target in terms of strategic momentum and stock performance, despite both companies facing challenges [18].