天目湖(603136)：业绩短期承压 关注后续客流转化及新项目落地

Core Insights - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, with performance in line with expectations [1] - Revenue for 2024 was 536 million, a decrease of 14.87% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 105 million, down 28.8% due to extreme weather and external market conditions [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 105 million, a decline of 1.6% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.45% to 14 million [1] Financial Performance - The company's sales and management expense ratios for 2024 were 8.41% and 14.68%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.83 and +0.99 percentage points [1] - For Q1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios were 5.67% and 17.15%, with year-on-year changes of +0.86 and +0.15 percentage points [1] Core Business Stability - The core scenic area business remained robust, with Tianmu Lake's main attractions generating revenues of 148 million and 135 million, down 17.47% and 7.58% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Gross profit margins for these attractions were 69.72% and 71.22%, indicating strong profitability [1] - The company effectively mitigated seasonal revenue fluctuations by developing secondary consumption scenarios and complementary seasonal products [1] Growth Initiatives - Scenic area renovations and new projects are driving organic growth, with ongoing projects like Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and Night Park enhancing visitor experience and brand appeal [2] - The company is expanding its hotel business through new constructions and renovations, improving reception capacity and service quality [2] - The opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway at the end of 2024 will reduce travel time from Shanghai to Liyang to about one hour, potentially boosting visitor traffic [2] Shareholder Returns - The company implemented a profit distribution plan for 2023, distributing 5.36 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 100 million yuan [2] - The board approved a profit distribution proposal for 2024, planning to distribute 2.35 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), expected to total 63 million yuan [2] - The cash dividend policy aligns with company regulations, ensuring the protection of minority shareholders' rights [2] Investment Outlook - The company is focused on a "one-stop tourism" development model, with unique and competitive products [3] - Following the opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway, there is significant marketing flexibility [3] - Upcoming projects include the planning and construction of Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II, the planning of Pingqiao characteristic leisure tourism area, and the third phase of Yushui Hot Spring [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 134 million and 153 million, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 170 million [3]