本报告导读： 1Q25 归母净利润超我们此前预期，24 年收入及利润略低于我们此前预期。2025 年一季度利润显著回 暖，25 年全年目标进取明确，建议关注全年兑现节奏与新项目落地成效。 投资要点： 投资建议：我 们预测2025-2027 年EPS 分别为0.51/0.54/0.65元，考虑到 2025 年行业平均的 34PE，给予 公司25 年30X PE 估值，上调目标价为 15.3 元，维持增持评级。 24 业绩略低于预期，1Q25 利润超预期：2024 年营业收入5.36 亿元（-14.87%），归母净利润1.05 亿元 （-28.80%），扣非归母净利润1.01亿元（-27.77%），业绩承压原因在于酒店改造扰动运营，叠加费用 刚性压缩利润空间。24 业绩略低于此前预期，我们此前预期营业收入和归母净利润各5.7 亿元，1.16 亿 元。24Q4 营业收入1.32 亿元，环比-6.9%，同比-15.2%，归母净利润0.19 亿元，环比-41.5%，同 比-28.6%。2025Q1 营业收入1.05 亿元（-1.6%），归母净利润0.14 亿元（+26.45%），扣非归母净利润 0.13 亿元（+34. ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 天目湖（603136） 证券研究报告 25Q1 利润增长 26%，全年业绩增长展望积极 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报： 2024 年营收 5.4 亿元、同比下滑 14.9%，归母净利润 1.0 亿元、同比下滑 28.8%，扣非归母净利润 1.0 亿元、同比下滑 27.8%。2024 年受外部市场环 境影响，业绩有所下滑。 24Q4 营收 1.3 亿元、同比下滑 15.2%，归母净利润 0.2 亿元、同比下滑 28.6%， 扣非归母净利润 0.2 亿元、同比下滑 29.6%。 25Q1 营收 1.0 亿元、同比下滑 1.6%，归母净利润 0.1 亿元、同比增长 26.45%， 扣非归母净利润 0.1 亿元、同比增长 34.5%。成本管控得当利润增速转正。 2024 年分红方案：拟每股派发现金红利 0.235 元（含税），分红率 60.7%。 分业务：2024 年各业务均承压 2024 年，景区业务收入 2.8 亿元、同比下滑 13.0%（其中，山水园收入 1.5 亿元、同比下滑 17.5%，南山竹海收入 1.3 亿元、同比下滑 7.6%），酒店业 务收入 1.6 亿 ...

[Table_Summary] 2025Q1，公司实现营业收入 1.05 亿元，同比下降 1.6%，实现扣非归母净利润 0.13 亿元，同 比增长 34.46%。远期来看，公司仍为景区板块中组织治理最优、成长逻辑最顺公司。 新项目 维度，未来三年溧阳"根据地"将以"零星增量完善功能+动物王国重磅项目落地"为主线，同 时异地扩张上有望取得突破，在地方国资扶持下成长为全国性休闲旅游龙头。预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为 1.26/1.44/1.61 亿元，对应 PE 分别为 26X/23X/20X，维持"买入" 评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨天目湖（603136.SH） [Table_Title] 2024 年年报暨 2025 年一季报点评：新老项目 稳步推进，2025 年业绩韧性复苏 报告要点 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 天目湖（603136.SH） ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 603136.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 12.39 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 7.6 1.5 7.9 (37.0) 相对上证综指 6.6 3.7 6.6 (44.9) (27%) (19%) (11%) (3%) 4% 12% Apr-24 May-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 天目湖 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 270.13 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 270.13 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 3,346.87 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 86.08 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 溧阳市城市建设发展集团有限公司 | 26.86 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 25 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《天目湖》2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase of 26% in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in performance [1][4] - The company is actively advancing its project pipeline, including the successful bid for the first phase of the Animal Kingdom project, which is expected to contribute to future growth [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 536.20 million yuan, a decrease of 14.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 104.66 million yuan, down 28.80% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 132 million yuan, a decline of 15.18% year-on-year, with a net profit of 19 million yuan, down 28.64% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.235 yuan per share, totaling 63 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 60.65% [4] Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from various segments was as follows: scenic spots 282 million yuan, hotels 159 million yuan, hot springs 42 million yuan, travel agencies 9 million yuan, and water world 7 million yuan, all experiencing declines due to external factors [4] Future Projections - For 2025, the company forecasts a net profit of 137.89 million yuan, representing a growth of 31.75% year-on-year, with an expected revenue of 585.94 million yuan, a growth of 9.27% year-on-year [2][4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.51 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.92 [2][4] Strategic Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading one-stop tourism service provider in the Yangtze River Delta, with a robust product development and operational capability in the full tourism industry chain [4] - The opening of the Hushu Lake high-speed railway is anticipated to boost customer traffic, while state-owned capital control is expected to enhance resource allocation [4]

Core Insights - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, with performance in line with expectations [1] - Revenue for 2024 was 536 million, a decrease of 14.87% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 105 million, down 28.8% due to extreme weather and external market conditions [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 105 million, a decline of 1.6% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.45% to 14 million [1] Financial Performance - The company's sales and management expense ratios for 2024 were 8.41% and 14.68%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.83 and +0.99 percentage points [1] - For Q1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios were 5.67% and 17.15%, with year-on-year changes of +0.86 and +0.15 percentage points [1] Core Business Stability - The core scenic area business remained robust, with Tianmu Lake's main attractions generating revenues of 148 million and 135 million, down 17.47% and 7.58% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Gross profit margins for these attractions were 69.72% and 71.22%, indicating strong profitability [1] - The company effectively mitigated seasonal revenue fluctuations by developing secondary consumption scenarios and complementary seasonal products [1] Growth Initiatives - Scenic area renovations and new projects are driving organic growth, with ongoing projects like Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and Night Park enhancing visitor experience and brand appeal [2] - The company is expanding its hotel business through new constructions and renovations, improving reception capacity and service quality [2] - The opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway at the end of 2024 will reduce travel time from Shanghai to Liyang to about one hour, potentially boosting visitor traffic [2] Shareholder Returns - The company implemented a profit distribution plan for 2023, distributing 5.36 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 100 million yuan [2] - The board approved a profit distribution proposal for 2024, planning to distribute 2.35 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), expected to total 63 million yuan [2] - The cash dividend policy aligns with company regulations, ensuring the protection of minority shareholders' rights [2] Investment Outlook - The company is focused on a "one-stop tourism" development model, with unique and competitive products [3] - Following the opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway, there is significant marketing flexibility [3] - Upcoming projects include the planning and construction of Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II, the planning of Pingqiao characteristic leisure tourism area, and the third phase of Yushui Hot Spring [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 134 million and 153 million, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 170 million [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is projected to experience revenue growth from 536.20 million in 2024 to 698.00 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.00% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 104.66 million in 2024 to 180.91 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8] - The EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 257.55 million in 2024 to 464.40 million in 2027, showcasing improved operational efficiency [8] Financial Summary - **Income Statement**: - Revenue is expected to grow from 536.20 million in 2024 to 698.00 million in 2027, with a projected net profit increase from 120.91 million to 201.01 million over the same period [8] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 52.42% in 2024 to 57.02% in 2027 [8] - **Balance Sheet**: - Total assets are projected to grow from 1781.65 million in 2024 to 2395.60 million in 2027, indicating a solid asset base [7] - The company’s total liabilities are expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 314.22 million in 2024 to 385.54 million in 2027 [7] - **Cash Flow Statement**: - Operating cash flow is forecasted to increase significantly from 192.05 million in 2024 to 471.71 million in 2027, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [7] - The net cash increase is expected to rise from 79.29 million in 2024 to 214.29 million in 2027, indicating improved liquidity [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 536 million yuan for the year 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 15%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 105 million yuan, down 29% year-over-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 105 million yuan, a slight decrease of 2% year-over-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 27% year-over-year to 14 million yuan [1] Business Structure Analysis - For the year 2024, the company's revenue from the scenic area business was 282 million yuan, down 13% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 70.43%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2] - The water world business generated 7 million yuan in revenue, a significant decrease of 41% year-over-year, with a gross margin of -43.40%, down 50 percentage points [2] - The hot spring business achieved a revenue of 42 million yuan, down 10% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 46.98%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points [2] - The hotel business reported a revenue of 159 million yuan, down 23% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 21.40%, an increase of 8 percentage points [2] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to achieve a revenue of 582 million yuan in 2025, an increase of 8.6% year-over-year, and a net profit of 149 million yuan, up 42% year-over-year [3] - The company aims to focus on its core business and enhance compounding effects through targeted strategies for sightseeing and vacation products, as well as regional collaboration [3] - The company is accelerating organizational transformation and leveraging technology to improve efficiency, including management information system upgrades and AI operations [3] - Strategic projects such as the upgrade of Yushui Hot Spring and the renovation of Longxing Island Butterfly Valley are being prioritized for sustainable development [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 582 million, 641 million, and 692 million yuan, respectively, with net profits of 143 million, 159 million, and 170 million yuan, indicating growth rates of 37%, 11%, and 7% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 due to external market conditions and extreme weather, but it has set positive performance targets for 2025 [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.35 yuan per 10 shares, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 60.65% [1][6]. - Despite the challenges in 2024, the company is focusing on cost optimization and has seen a narrowing revenue decline in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 536 million yuan, a decrease of 14.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 28.80% year-on-year [1][6]. - The Q4 2024 results showed revenue and net profit of 132 million yuan and 19 million yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 15.18% and 28.64% year-on-year [1][6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 105 million yuan, a slight decline of 1.60% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 26.45% to 13.84 million yuan [2][11]. Business Segments - The main business segments faced revenue declines in 2024: scenic area revenue was 282 million yuan (-13.03%), hot spring revenue was 42 million yuan (-10.40%), hotel revenue was 159 million yuan (-23.10%), and water park revenue was 7 million yuan (-41.28%) [2][9]. - The overall net profit margin for the year was 19.52%, down 3.82 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. Future Outlook - The company has set ambitious targets for 2025, aiming for revenue of 580 million yuan and net profit of 150 million yuan [3][14]. - New projects, including the management output of the Liyang Animal Kingdom, are expected to contribute positively to future earnings [3][14]. - The company is also advancing other projects, such as the Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and the Pingqiao Cultural Tourism Complex, to enhance its product matrix [3][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 15% in 2024, with total revenue of 536 million yuan and a net profit decrease of 29% to 105 million yuan. However, Q1 2025 showed signs of recovery with a slight revenue drop of 1.6% and a net profit increase of 26% to 13.84 million yuan [1][2]. - The company is actively pursuing growth projects, including the Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and the Pingqiao Cultural Tourism Complex, which are expected to enhance its market position and contribute to future earnings [3]. - The company is strategically located in the core area of the Yangtze River Delta, making it a rare private leisure tourism asset with high growth potential as the demand for leisure travel increases [3]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 536 million yuan, a decrease of 14.87% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 105 million yuan, down 28.8% [5]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 140 million yuan, 164 million yuan, and 183 million yuan, respectively, indicating a recovery trend [5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.35 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 60.65% for 2024 [1].