锦江酒店(600754)：景气拖累业绩承压 效率仍有改善空间

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the company is negatively impacted by the downturn in industry prosperity, with limited improvements in direct operations and overseas loss reduction, indicating significant room for future enhancement [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company's performance fell short of expectations, with a downward revision of EPS for 2025/26 to 0.99/1.19 yuan (-0.28/-0.27) and a new EPS forecast of 1.42 yuan for 2027, leading to net profits of 9.61/11.74/14.16 billion yuan for 2025/26/27 [2] - For the full year 2024, revenue was 14.063 billion yuan, down 4.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 911 million yuan, down 9.06% [2] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 3.273 billion yuan, down 8.51%, with a net loss of 195 million yuan compared to a profit of 26.73 million yuan in Q4 2023 [2] Loss Expansion Analysis - The expansion of losses is primarily due to a decrease in operating profit of 37 million yuan in the domestic limited-service hotel segment and a net loss of 437 million yuan in overseas operations, compared to a loss of 409 million yuan in 2023 [3] - Revenue from direct operations decreased by 18%, mainly due to a reduction in the number of stores, while the total franchise fees from domestic and overseas businesses fell by 19% [3] - The revenue growth rate from booking channel fees declined by 11.4% [3] Efficiency Improvement Potential - The company has several avenues for efficiency improvement, including reducing losses in direct operations, increasing the proportion of CRS, and improving capital structure [3] - In 2024, the company closed 63 direct stores, contributing to loss reduction, but overall losses expanded due to a decline in RevPAR driven by industry downturn [3] - The company confirmed a credit impairment of 130 million yuan for 2024, with 117 million yuan recognized in Q4, primarily related to accounts receivable impairment [3] - The company projects revenue for 2025 to be between 14.3 billion and 15 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2-7%, and plans to open 1,300 new stores and sign 2,000 new contracts [3]