兴业证券(601377)：自营连续两个季度实现高盈利 驱动业绩高增长

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid financial performance for 2024, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, while facing challenges in brokerage and investment banking sectors [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.16 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year, with an EPS of 0.24 yuan and ROE of 3.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] - For Q4 2024, operating revenue reached 3.54 billion yuan, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 100.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.6% [1] - In Q1 2025, operating revenue was 2.79 billion yuan, up 17.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 520 million yuan, reflecting a 57.3% increase [1] Brokerage and Wealth Management - Brokerage business revenue in 2024 was 2.13 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, accounting for 21.7% of total operating revenue [2] - The brokerage market share was 1.32%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year, with the commission rate dropping from 0.026% in 2023 to 0.023% in 2024 [2] - By the end of 2024, the company had over one million effective wealth management clients [2] Investment Banking - Investment banking revenue in 2024 was 700 million yuan, a decline of 32.9% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend due to policy impacts [2] - The company ranked 23rd in equity underwriting with a total scale of 1.91 billion yuan, down 83.6% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, the company did not complete any equity underwriting [3] Bond Underwriting and Asset Management - Bond underwriting revenue in 2024 was 175.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year, ranking 19th [3] - The asset management business achieved revenue of 160 million yuan in 2024, up 7.6% year-on-year, with total assets under management reaching 101 billion yuan, a 19.7% increase [3] Investment Income - The company reported investment income (including fair value) of 2.82 billion yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 370.1% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, investment income was 600 million yuan, reflecting an 82.3% year-on-year growth [4] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 2.599 billion, 2.990 billion, and 3.362 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 20%, 15%, and 12% respectively [4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance in proprietary trading and wealth management sectors, leading to a "buy" rating [4]