山西汾酒(600809)：25Q1经销商稳定增长 盈利端表现平稳

Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 36.011 billion and 12.243 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 17.29% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 16.523 billion and 6.648 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7.72% and 6.15% [2] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's liquor revenue reached 35.875 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 0.93 percentage points to 76.30% [1] - The proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increased by 0.86 percentage points to 73.96%, with revenues of 26.532 billion and 9.342 billion yuan for mid-to-high-end and other liquors, respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, liquor revenue was 16.480 billion yuan, with revenue from Fenjiu and other liquors at 16.212 billion and 0.268 billion yuan, respectively [2] Market Dynamics - In 2024, revenue from provincial and out-of-province markets was 13.500 billion and 22.374 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% [1] - The number of distributors increased by 613 to 4,553, while the average scale per distributor decreased by 2.88% to 7.3657 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, provincial and out-of-province revenues were 6.083 billion and 10.396 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 7.18% [2] Profitability Analysis - In 2024, the gross margin and net profit margin were 76.20% and 34.00%, respectively, with increases of 0.9 and 1.3 percentage points [1] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin were 78.80% and 40.23%, with changes of +1.34 and -0.60 percentage points [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 68.47% year-on-year to 12.172 billion yuan in 2024, while in Q1 2025, it decreased by 0.21% to 7.027 billion yuan [1][2] Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenue growth of 8%, 9%, and 9% for 2025-2027, reaching 39 billion, 42.5 billion, and 46.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 6%, 9%, and 10% for the same period, reaching 13 billion, 14.1 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The revised earnings forecast reflects a weaker consumption environment for liquor [3]