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药明合联(02268.HK):全球ADC/XDC一体化服务龙头 商业化蓄势待发
02268WUXI XDC(02268) 格隆汇· Ge Long Hui·2025-05-27 01:59

Core Viewpoint - The company is a global leader in ADC and bioconjugate drug CRDMO, with a significant market share and rapid growth in revenue and net profit driven by the ADC sector's expansion and its competitive advantages [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - The company achieved a global market share of 9.8% in 2022, ranking second globally and first domestically [1]. - From 2020 to 2023, the company's revenue and net profit CAGR were 180% and 121%, respectively, with projected growth rates of 91% and 277% in 2024 [1]. - The acceleration in net profit is attributed to the rapid development of the ADC sector and the unique competitive advantages of being an industry leader [1]. Group 2: ADC Market Outlook - The global ADC market is expected to exceed 13billionin2024,withsixblockbusterdrugsalreadylaunched[2].Themarketisprojectedtoreach13 billion in 2024, with six blockbuster drugs already launched [2]. - The market is projected to reach 64.7 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 30.7% from 2024 to 2030, driven by advancements in treatment approaches and new drug approvals [2]. - The penetration rate of outsourced ADC R&D and production is 70%, significantly higher than the 34% for other biopharmaceuticals, indicating a high level of market activity [2]. Group 3: Service Platform Development - The company is developing a comprehensive one-stop service platform covering the entire process of bioconjugate drug development, including discovery, process development, and GMP production [2]. - The company has achieved one-stop production capabilities at its Wuxi base, significantly accelerating ADC project timelines from early discovery to BLA [2]. - The company plans to expand global production capacity, with a new facility in Singapore expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [2]. Group 4: Future Earnings Projections - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.05, 1.41, and 1.91 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. - Given the company's leadership in the global ADC CRDMO market and its rich project reserves, a DCF valuation method suggests a target price of HKD 47.81 [3].