证券研究报告 药明合联 (2268 HK) 2025 年中期策略会速递— ADC 赛道景气，全球双厂战略推进 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港 | 生物医药 | 截至 2024 年底，公司储备订单金额合计 9.91 亿美元（+71%yoy）；2024 年综合项目数量达 194 个（+36%yoy），包含 15 个 III 期临床项目（8 个处 于 PPQ 阶段，较 2023 年的 5 个显著提升）及 1 个商业化阶段项目。综合 项目获取顺利，临床阶段项目持续向后转化，新加坡工厂落成后有望进一步 吸引海外后期项目订单。 6 月 4 日药明合联出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司指出当 前 ADC 赛道热度持续攀升，2024 年报显示在手订单与项目数量储备均持 续高速增长，产能端国内及海外生产设施建设正有序推进。我们重申公司在 全球产业链地位稳固、业绩持续兑现能力强劲，维持"买入"。 ADC 行业发展东风正劲 全球双厂战略推进，海外产能落成在即 商业化及后期临床生产需求攀升：1）德达博妥单 ...

Group 1 - A-shares indices collectively strengthened on May 29, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect medical theme index leading the gains [1] - The Hong Kong medical ETF (159366) rose by 2.9%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as WuXi AppTec up over 10%, MicroPort Medical up over 9%, and WuXi Biologics up over 8% [1] - The U.S. International Trade Court halted Trump's tariff policy, leading to significant gains in U.S. stock index futures, with the Dow Jones futures up nearly 500 points (1.1% increase) [1] Group 2 - At the 2025 ASCO annual meeting, Chinese pharmaceutical companies showcased strong performance in innovative drug fields, particularly in PD-1 bispecific antibodies, CAR-T, and ADC technologies [2] - Key focus areas include the technological accumulation and market expansion capabilities of leading innovative drug and medical device companies, especially those with core technologies and overseas licensing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHCI) has shown strong performance, with significant increases in constituent stocks, reflecting a robust trend in the healthcare sector in Hong Kong [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 29, 2025, the HSHCI rose by 1.59%, with notable gains from WuXi AppTec (7.47%), WuXi Biologics (6.84%), and WuXi PharmaTech (4.22%) [3]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF (513060) increased by 1.40%, with a recent price of 0.51 yuan, and has accumulated a 5.25% rise over the past two weeks [3]. - The ETF's trading volume reached 276 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.13% [3]. Group 2: Clinical Research and Innovation - The 2025 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting will take place from May 30 to June 3, 2025, in Chicago, showcasing over 70 research studies from Chinese scholars [3]. - The inclusion of multiple domestic innovative drug studies at the ASCO conference indicates a thriving domestic pharmaceutical research environment, particularly in oncology [3]. Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF has a total size of 8.78 billion yuan, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [5]. - The ETF has seen a net value increase of 38.61% over the past year, ranking 16 out of 118 QDII equity funds [5]. - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception was 28.34%, with an average monthly return of 6.79% [5]. Group 4: Risk and Return Analysis - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.27, indicating the highest return for a given level of risk among comparable funds [5]. - The ETF has experienced a relative drawdown of only 0.45% this year, the smallest among comparable funds [5]. Group 5: Valuation and Tracking Accuracy - The HSHCI's latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is 24.44, indicating a valuation lower than 90.15% of the past year [6]. - The ETF's tracking error over the past month is 0.022%, the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [6]. Group 6: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the HSHCI account for 57.06% of the index, including companies like Innovent Biologics (4.44%) and WuXi Biologics (0.43%) [6][8].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.02% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.19% [1] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) increased by 0.39%, with a turnover rate of 4.08% and a trading volume exceeding 660 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] - Notable stocks within the ETF included WuXi AppTec, which rose over 5%, WuXi Biologics, which increased over 4%, and Kelun Pharmaceutical, which gained over 2% [1] Group 2 - The innovative drug and AI medical sectors performed actively in Q1, with related fund products showing impressive returns, as the top-performing ETFs have all exceeded a 32% increase year-to-date [1] - The majority of pharmaceutical-themed funds have also shown positive growth, with 90% reporting positive performance for the year [1] - Industry analysts from Industrial Securities expect a steady recovery in the pharmaceutical sector due to favorable policies, particularly in the hospital market, which was previously impacted by anti-corruption and centralized procurement [1] Group 3 - Minsheng Securities highlighted continuous catalysts in the innovative drug sector, focusing on areas such as anti-tumor, autoimmune, GLP-1, stem cell, and gene therapy, while also emphasizing the importance of domestic substitution and medical consumption, particularly in the beauty sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is a global leader in ADC and bioconjugate drug CRDMO, with a significant market share and rapid growth in revenue and net profit driven by the ADC sector's expansion and its competitive advantages [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - The company achieved a global market share of 9.8% in 2022, ranking second globally and first domestically [1]. - From 2020 to 2023, the company's revenue and net profit CAGR were 180% and 121%, respectively, with projected growth rates of 91% and 277% in 2024 [1]. - The acceleration in net profit is attributed to the rapid development of the ADC sector and the unique competitive advantages of being an industry leader [1]. Group 2: ADC Market Outlook - The global ADC market is expected to exceed $13 billion in 2024, with six blockbuster drugs already launched [2]. - The market is projected to reach $64.7 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 30.7% from 2024 to 2030, driven by advancements in treatment approaches and new drug approvals [2]. - The penetration rate of outsourced ADC R&D and production is 70%, significantly higher than the 34% for other biopharmaceuticals, indicating a high level of market activity [2]. Group 3: Service Platform Development - The company is developing a comprehensive one-stop service platform covering the entire process of bioconjugate drug development, including discovery, process development, and GMP production [2]. - The company has achieved one-stop production capabilities at its Wuxi base, significantly accelerating ADC project timelines from early discovery to BLA [2]. - The company plans to expand global production capacity, with a new facility in Singapore expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [2]. Group 4: Future Earnings Projections - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.05, 1.41, and 1.91 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. - Given the company's leadership in the global ADC CRDMO market and its rich project reserves, a DCF valuation method suggests a target price of HKD 47.81 [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in ADC and XDC CRDMO, benefiting from strong growth in the ADC sector and unique competitive advantages as an industry leader [5][20] - The ADC market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of $64.7 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in treatment strategies and new drug approvals [9][43] - The company is developing a comprehensive one-stop service platform that covers the entire process from discovery to GMP production, which is expected to accelerate project timelines and enhance growth potential [9][20] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a CAGR of 180% and 121% from 2020 to 2023, respectively [20] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 5,470.58 million, HKD 7,169.95 million, and HKD 9,202.70 million, with corresponding net profits of HKD 1,257.14 million, HKD 1,695.86 million, and HKD 2,302.43 million [8][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 26.35% in 2023 to 34.00% by 2027, while net margin is projected to rise from 13.35% to 25.02% over the same period [8] Market Position - The company holds a 9.8% global market share in the ADC sector, ranking second globally and first domestically, with a significant increase in overseas revenue contribution [68] - The ADC outsourcing service market is projected to grow from $1.5 billion in 2022 to over $11 billion by 2030, indicating a strong demand for the company's services [64][68]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in ADC and XDC CRDMO, with a market share of 9.8% globally and ranked second worldwide, benefiting from the technological and capacity advantages of its major shareholders [5][68]. - The ADC market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 30.7% from 2024 to 2030, driven by the increasing adoption of ADCs in cancer treatment [9][43]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth, with a forecasted revenue of HKD 5,470.58 million in 2025, representing a 35% year-on-year increase [8]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of HKD 1.05, HKD 1.41, and HKD 1.91 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [6]. - The target price is set at HKD 47.81, based on DCF valuation, reflecting the company's leadership position in the ADC CRDMO sector and its robust project pipeline [6]. Company Overview - The company was established in 2013 and went public in 2023, focusing on the development and manufacturing of ADCs and XDCs [14]. - The core management team has extensive experience in the biopharmaceutical industry, enhancing the company's operational capabilities [18]. Revenue Growth and Profitability - The company has experienced a CAGR of 180% in revenue and 121% in net profit from 2020 to 2023, with a projected revenue growth of 91% and net profit growth of 277% in 2024 [20]. - The gross margin and net margin are expected to improve significantly due to enhanced operational efficiency and increased capacity utilization [23]. Market Dynamics - The ADC market is projected to reach USD 6.47 billion by 2030, with a significant shift towards frontline treatments and combination therapies with immunotherapy [43][48]. - The demand for ADC outsourcing services is expected to grow, with the global ADC outsourcing market projected to exceed USD 11 billion by 2030 [64].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for WuXi AppTec (02268.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][4] Core Views - The company achieved impressive growth in 2024, with a main business revenue of 40.52 billion yuan (+90.8%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.70 billion yuan (+277.2%) [2][9] - The gross margin for 2024 was 30.6% (+4.3 percentage points), and the net profit margin was 26.4% (+13.3 percentage points), indicating a significant improvement in profitability [2][9] - The company has a strong order backlog of 9.91 billion USD (+71.2%) and has expanded its customer base to 499 clients (+44.5%), including 13 of the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies [2][17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a main business revenue of 40.52 billion yuan, a 90.8% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 10.70 billion yuan, reflecting a 277.2% growth [2][9] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit reached 11.74 billion yuan, up 184.8% [2][9] - The company’s gross margin improved to 30.6%, and net profit margin increased to 26.4% [2][9] Order and Client Growth - The company’s order backlog reached 9.91 billion USD, marking a 71.2% increase [2][17] - The number of clients grew to 499, with a 44.5% increase, including 13 of the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies contributing 32.0% of revenue [2][17] Technological Advancements - The WuXiDARx™ technology has supported 45 preclinical candidates and 7 clinical projects, enhancing the company's capabilities in ADC and XDC drug services [3][21] - The company has completed 83 IND submissions for ADC and 2 for XDC, with 34 projects in late-stage clinical development [3][21] Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its global production capacity, with new production lines in Wuxi and Shanghai expected to enhance service capabilities in the European and American markets [3][22] - The second production line in Wuxi is set to commence operations in November 2024, and further expansions are planned for 2025 and 2026 [3][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 45.45 for the next six months [4][6][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 4.052 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 90.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 1.070 billion, up 277.24% year-on-year [2][4]. - The growth is attributed to the continuous increase in ADC project numbers, the steady advancement of group projects to later stages, and improvements in operational efficiency [2][3]. - The company signed 53 new comprehensive projects in 2024, with an unfulfilled order amounting to USD 991 million, reflecting a 71% increase [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 5.589 billion, CNY 7.433 billion, and CNY 9.515 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.93%, 32.98%, and 28.02% respectively [12][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be CNY 1.371 billion, CNY 1.696 billion, and CNY 2.076 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 28.09%, 23.76%, and 22.41% respectively [12][20]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 29.76, which is close to its historical average [14][18]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be CNY 1.14, corresponding to a PE of 37 times [4][18]. - The report highlights that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for ADC drug development and the high outsourcing rate in the industry [17].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue record of RMB 4,052.3 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 90.8%[9] - Gross profit reached RMB 1,239.8 million, a significant increase of 121.6%, with a gross margin of 30.6%[9] - Net profit surged by 277.2% to RMB 1,069.6 million, reflecting operational leverage and strict cost control measures[9] - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by 90.8% to RMB 4,052.3 million[22] - Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by 121.6% to RMB 1,239.8 million[22] - Net profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by 277.2% to RMB 1,069.6 million[22] - Adjusted net profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by 184.8% to RMB 1,174.0 million[22] - The company’s revenue increased by 90.8% from RMB 2,123.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, to RMB 4,052.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2024[73] - Adjusted net profit increased by 184.8% from RMB 412.3 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 1,174.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[95] - Basic earnings per share grew by 217.9% from RMB 0.28 for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 0.89 for the year ending December 31, 2024[96] Operational Expansion - The company expanded its global footprint and enhanced execution capabilities, with significant progress in its first overseas production base in Singapore[7] - The total number of ongoing integrated projects increased from 143 as of December 31, 2023, to 194 as of December 31, 2024[22] - The company is expanding its production capacity and attracting talent to meet the growing demand for bioconjugate drug CRDMO services globally[19] - The company is expanding its production capacity for antibody intermediates in Wuxi, China, and building new facilities in Singapore to meet growing demand for bioconjugate drugs[42] - The new Singapore facility is expected to start operations by the end of 2025, with four production lines planned for clinical and commercial production[45] - The company operates integrated CRDMO services from drug discovery to commercialization across its bases in Shanghai, Wuxi, and Changzhou[42] Research and Development - The proprietary WuXiDARx™ technology has successfully developed 45 preclinical candidates and 7 clinical projects, addressing diverse R&D needs[10] - The company launched innovative linker and payload technologies, including X-LinC, to optimize the therapeutic potential of ADCs[10] - The company is focused on optimizing ADC production processes to ensure consistency and successful scale-up for commercialization[39] - The company plans to submit 30 IND applications in 2024 and deliver over 300 batches of GMP-compliant products[1] - The company aims to enhance its platform to drive the development of the bioconjugate drug industry, benefiting global biopharmaceutical partners and patients[33] Client and Market Growth - The company ranked second globally and first in China in the ADC CRDMO sector based on 2022 revenue, with a strategy focused on empowering and winning molecular partnerships[59] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had 499 clients, a significant increase from 345 in 2023, reflecting a growing and diversified customer base[59] - Revenue from North America grew significantly, contributing RMB 2,030.4 million (50.1% of total revenue) in 2024, compared to RMB 851.9 million (40.1%) in 2023[74] - The company generated RMB 3,767.2 million from ADC projects, accounting for 93.0% of total revenue in 2024, up from 88.9% in 2023[79] Financial Management - Financial costs increased by 331.9% from RMB 0.7 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 3.2 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, primarily due to increased interest expenses from bank loans[87] - Other income rose by 149.1% from RMB 92.3 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 229.9 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, mainly driven by increased bank interest income[88] - The company maintains a centralized management of financial activities to control and reduce funding costs[111] - The company plans to manage foreign currency risk through forward contracts and hedge accounting for derivatives[120] Sustainability and ESG Commitments - The company implemented strict waste management and emission control standards, contributing to its ESG commitments[11] - The company aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030, using 2021 as the baseline year, while expanding its operations[65] - The company is committed to social responsibility and sustainable growth, with details to be disclosed in its environmental, social, and governance report[199] Governance and Leadership - The board of directors includes experienced professionals with over 20 years in the biotechnology industry, such as Dr. Chen Zhisheng and Dr. Zhou Weichang[141][142] - The company has appointed Ulf Grawunder, an experienced entrepreneur in the life sciences sector, as an independent non-executive director[145] - The company emphasizes the importance of independent judgment in its governance structure, as highlighted by the roles of independent directors[145] - The independent non-executive directors have confirmed their independence as per the listing rules for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[165] Risks and Challenges - The company faces significant risks including potential declines in customer spending and demand, which could adversely impact its business, especially given the early-stage development of its products[200] - Increased competition in the industry may lead to customer attrition, affecting the company's market position[200] - The company's growth strategies and business expansion plans may not succeed, which could negatively impact its operations and financial performance[200] - The company may face challenges in successfully developing new technologies and improving existing ones to maintain its competitive edge[200]