wanhua(600309) 国信证券·2024-06-17 02:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Wanhua Chemical (600309 SH) [1][14] Core Views - Wanhua Chemical's 1 million tons/year ethylene plant feedstock diversification project will switch from propane to ethane, reducing raw material costs and improving economic efficiency [2] - Ethane-based ethylene production has higher yield, lower material and energy consumption, and better environmental benefits compared to propane [2][4] - The company has a solid profit foundation as a leading polyurethane industry player, with new projects steadily progressing [2] - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 19 384/22 473/23 337 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +15 3%/+15 9%/+3 8% [2][14] Ethylene Production Analysis - Ethane cracking has the highest ethylene yield at 77 65%, significantly higher than propane's 44 82% [3][4] - Ethane-based ethylene production requires lower investment (413 5 million USD) and has lower relative material and energy consumption (100) compared to propane (508 5 million USD, 144) [5][6] - The project's unit ethylene energy consumption (372 7 kgoe/t) and unit dual-olefin energy consumption (359 2 kgoe/t) are better than industry benchmarks [7] Environmental Impact - The project will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 12 286 tCO2e/a compared to the original process [7] - Unit product greenhouse gas emissions will decrease from 1 23 tCO2e/t to 0 91 tCO2e/t after the transformation [7] Supply Chain and Logistics - Ethane supply stability faces constraints due to US export terminal capacity, shipping capacity, and China's import infrastructure limitations [8] - Wanhua has established a strategic joint venture with ADNOC L&S to ensure LPG and other raw material transportation [8] Polyurethane Market - The company's main product, polymeric MDI, is experiencing a recovery in market conditions driven by increased demand for refrigerators and freezers [9] - As of June 16, 2024, the average market price of polymeric MDI was 17 002 yuan/ton, up 11% year-on-year [9] - China's refrigerator and freezer production showed year-on-year growth of 25% and 15% respectively in April 2024 [9]