恩捷股份：湿法隔膜站位稳固，海外布局持续推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.53 billion yuan, down 37% year-on-year [4] - The company is experiencing pressure on unit profitability due to supply-demand mismatches and price declines in the industry, while maintaining high shipment growth [4][14] - The company is expanding its production capacity with 17 new production lines expected in 2024, and is actively pursuing overseas expansion [4][26] - The company is diversifying its product structure to meet new lithium battery demands, including the development of non-fluorinated mixed coating separators [4][29] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company started in the packaging printing industry and has transitioned to focus on lithium battery separators, with significant acquisitions to enhance its capabilities [8][9] - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, which is beneficial for stable development [11] Industry Demand and Competitive Advantages - The demand for separators is strong, supported by four major competitive barriers: equipment, technology, customer base, and scale [18][19] - The company has established strong relationships with major battery manufacturers, enhancing its market position [25] Production Capacity and Product Development - The company has achieved a single-line production capacity of over 100 million square meters and is expanding its overseas production capabilities [26] - The company is actively developing new products, including high-safety separators and solid-state materials, to adapt to evolving market needs [30][31] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects net profits of approximately 1.51 billion yuan in 2024 and 2.58 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.56 and 13.26 [5] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, with a forecasted increase of 15.3% in 2024 and 23.2% in 2025 [5]