Investment Rating - 6-month rating: Buy (maintained) [3] Core Views - TEMU's rapid expansion across 70 countries and its "major holiday marketing + social fission" strategy are driving user growth, potentially leading to better-than-expected GMV and revenue growth for the year [1] - The introduction of the semi-hosted model on March 15th, which shifts overseas warehousing, freight, and return responsibilities to merchants, is expected to improve the overseas UE model and enrich the supply of large SKUs, potentially narrowing overseas losses [1] - PDD's 24Q1 revenue grew 130.7% YoY to RMB 868 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 13%, with marketing service revenue up 55.8% to RMB 425 billion and transaction service revenue up 326.8% to RMB 444 billion, driven by TEMU's rapid development [3] - Non-GAAP adjusted net profit for 24Q1 surged 202.2% YoY to RMB 306.02 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 97%, with a Non-GAAP net margin of 35.3%, attributed to effective cost control and operational efficiency improvements [3] - PDD's focus on high-quality development, including enhancing consumer experience, optimizing supply chain efficiency, and improving platform governance, is expected to drive market share gains and increase per capita GMV [4] - The company's fee rates have significantly declined, with sales expense ratio down 16.2 ppts YoY to 27%, R&D expense ratio down 3.3 ppts to 3.4%, and management expense ratio down 0.1 ppts to 2.1%, indicating improved operating leverage [11] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2025 have been raised to RMB 4253 billion and RMB 5656 billion, representing YoY growth of 71.7% and 33%, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit expected to reach RMB 1403 billion and RMB 1867 billion, reflecting YoY growth of 106.7% and 33% [15] Key Highlights by Section TEMU Expansion and Growth - TEMU has expanded to 70 countries, with growth exceeding expectations in multiple regions, potentially driving full-year GMV and revenue growth [1] - The semi-hosted model is expected to improve overseas profitability and expand large SKU offerings [1] 24Q1 Performance - 24Q1 revenue and profit growth significantly exceeded market expectations, with strong contributions from TEMU's overseas business [3] - Non-GAAP net profit surged 202.2% YoY, driven by cost control and operational efficiency [3] High-Quality Development Strategy - PDD's focus on high-quality consumption, supply, and ecosystem development is expected to drive market share gains and increase per capita GMV [4] - The company is enhancing its supply chain and platform governance, supporting long-term growth [4] Cost Efficiency - Significant reductions in sales, R&D, and management expense ratios indicate improved operating leverage and cost efficiency [11] Financial Forecasts - Revenue and Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 have been raised, reflecting strong growth expectations [15]
拼多多：24Q1业绩：利润显著超市场预期，展现强盈利能力