甘肃能化：煤炭有成长，电&化拓布局，业绩估值望迎双击

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Gansu Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. [12] Core Views - Gansu Energy Chemical is positioned as a leading coal enterprise in Gansu, focusing on an integrated strategy of "coal-electricity joint operation and coal-chemical co-production" [11][19] - The company has shown significant growth in coal production and sales, with a notable increase in revenue and profit margins [22][32] - The report anticipates stable revenue growth and improved profitability due to new projects and diversified operations [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Gansu Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. was established from the restructuring of Gansu Jingyuan Coal and Electricity Co., Ltd. in 2022, following the acquisition of Yaojie Coal and Electricity Group [8][11] - The company operates 11 mines with a total capacity of 23.14 million tons and has significant coal reserves [30][19] 2. Coal Business - In 2023, the company produced 19.68 million tons of raw coal, accounting for 32.9% of Gansu's total coal output, with a year-on-year growth of 31.7% [11][32] - The coal business has consistently contributed 70%-85% of total revenue and over 85% of gross profit from 2017 to 2023 [11][24] 3. Power Generation - The power generation segment is primarily managed by Baiyin Thermal Power, which has a total installed capacity of 809 MW, with ongoing projects to expand capacity [11][19] - The company plans to invest in new coal-fired power projects, aiming for a total installed capacity of 3 million kilowatts by 2025 [19][11] 4. Chemical Business - The chemical segment is expected to grow significantly, with ongoing projects in gasification and chemical production, targeting an annual capacity of 3 million tons by 2025 [19][11] - The gasification project is projected to generate substantial profits, with estimated annual profits of 860 million yuan [11][19] 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The report forecasts net profits of 2.31 billion yuan, 2.64 billion yuan, and 2.97 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.4, 6.5, and 5.8 [15][11] - The company is expected to benefit from new mining projects and diversified revenue streams, enhancing profit certainty and revenue stability [11][12]