山东出版：区域出版龙头主业挺拔，分红比例再创新高

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Shandong Publishing [4][7]. Core Views - Shandong Publishing, as a regional publishing leader, demonstrates robust revenue growth and strong profit resilience, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.33% in revenue since its listing [1][14]. - The company benefits from the K12 population dividend in Shandong province, with 86.40% of its revenue generated locally, supporting the continuous growth of its dual education business [2][21]. - The company has significantly increased its dividend payout, with a dividend yield rising from 1.71% in 2017 to 5.97% in 2023, reflecting strong shareholder returns [3][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Shandong Publishing operates a full industry chain including publishing, printing, distribution, and material trade, while actively exploring innovative sectors such as education training and cultural tourism [11][12]. - The company has maintained a stable revenue growth trajectory, achieving a revenue of 121.54 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8.23% [14]. 2. K12 Population and Business Growth - The K12 student population in Shandong is expected to continue growing in the near term, providing a solid foundation for the company's dual education business [2][21]. - The dual education business has seen its revenue share increase from 53.93% in 2017 to 62.23% in 2023, with sales of educational materials rising from 60.58 billion yuan to 100.33 billion yuan during the same period [20]. 3. Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently improved its dividend metrics, with a cash dividend of 5.60 yuan per 10 shares distributed in 2023, totaling 11.69 billion yuan [26][27]. - The strong cash flow and substantial cash reserves, totaling 123.37 billion yuan in 2023, provide a solid foundation for future dividend payments [29]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 131.88 billion yuan, 141.94 billion yuan, and 148.03 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 17.17 billion yuan, 19.00 billion yuan, and 20.06 billion yuan [4][36]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 9% in 2024, followed by 8% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, with net profit growth rates of -28%, 11%, and 6% respectively [36][37].