投资要点： 通胀继续放缓。1 月 CPI 同比增速降至 2.4%，低于市场预期的 2.5%， 前值为 2.7%；核心 CPI 同比亦回落至 2.5%，前值为 2.6%，创下自 2021 年 4 月以来的新低。环比方面，核心 CPI 上涨 0.3%，与预期持平，前值为 0.2%。 从分项同比表现看，能源和核心商品通胀延续加速回落，成为主要拖累项。 宏 观 点 评 能源通胀加速走低。1 月 CPI 能源分项同比增速进一步降至-0.1%，汽 油项同比降幅扩大是主要拖累，但随着近期油价反弹，后续汽油通胀的同 环比读数有望企稳。电力价格同比高位回落至 6.3%，环比增速开始转负 （-0.1%），或指向后续高增长的可持续性存疑。油价方面，本月油价走强 主要与美伊冲突升级有关，市场担忧伊朗可能通过限制霍尔木兹海峡的原 油运输或发动局部冲突，进而影响供给；此外，美国暴风雪等冬季天气导 致部分地区原油生产中断，也构成潜在扰动。不过，根据 EIA 最新预测， 2026 年全球原油市场将面临 305 万桶/日的供给过剩，较上月预期的 226 万 桶/日进一步扩大。从这个角度看，2026 年油价承压下行的趋势并未改变。 二手车价格大 ...

Investment Highlights - The construction sector faced pressure in 2025, with the building materials sector showing signs of bottom recovery, as the building materials sector increased by 22.1%, outperforming the construction decoration sector which only rose by 6.7% [2][15][22]. Construction Sector Analysis - The construction sector is under significant fundamental pressure, with a focus on three main investment directions: overseas expansion through the "Belt and Road" initiative, resource value reassessment, and state-owned enterprise reform [3][5]. - The domestic traditional infrastructure investment growth rate is slowing, and real estate construction continues to weaken, limiting the improvement space for the sector [3][5]. - Companies with business transformation capabilities and those positioned in high-growth niche markets performed well, while engineering consulting firms faced pressure due to local government financial constraints [3][5]. Building Materials Sector Analysis - The building materials sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with some segments expected to reach a turning point, particularly consumer building materials [4][5]. - Despite weak real estate data, the marginal negative impact on the building materials sector has significantly decreased, with supply-side improvements expected to precede demand-side recovery [4][5]. - The cement industry is recovering from price bottoming, while the glass industry remains under pressure, and the fiberglass sector is seeing significant improvements due to structural demand [4][5][41][46]. Investment Recommendations - In the construction sector, focus on leading infrastructure companies benefiting from overseas projects and major engineering, such as China Communications Construction Company, China State Construction Engineering, and China Railway Construction Corporation [5]. - In the building materials sector, attention should be given to leading consumer building material companies like Sangke Tree, Oriental Yuhong, and Beixin Building Materials, as well as cyclical building material leaders like Huaxin Cement and China National Building Material [5]. Belt and Road Initiative - The "Belt and Road" initiative has created significant opportunities for the construction sector, with a notable increase in overseas orders and contracts signed in 2025, amounting to $257.98 billion, a 10.8% increase year-on-year [77][79]. - The demand for infrastructure in countries participating in the initiative is expected to grow rapidly, providing a substantial project pool for construction companies [77][79]. Resource Value Reassessment - The expectation of rising prices for non-ferrous metals is anticipated to benefit state-owned construction companies that have acquired valuable mineral resources through past projects [3][5]. State-Owned Enterprise Reform - Policies promoting the securitization of state-owned assets and mergers and acquisitions are expected to create value reassessment opportunities for state-owned construction companies with quality assets [3][5].

- The report introduces a quantitative model for evaluating equity funds, using 22 benchmark indices as independent variables and fund returns as dependent variables. The model applies a rolling window regression with a 6-month window to calculate the R² matrix for each fund. The benchmark index with the highest average R² over the last six periods is selected as the reference index for fund performance evaluation[18][19][24] - The construction process of the model involves linear regression for each benchmark index and fund return, followed by rolling window regression to derive the R² matrix. The formula used is $ R² = 1 - \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}(y_i - \hat{y}_i)^2}{\sum_{i=1}^{n}(y_i - \bar{y})^2} $, where $ y_i $ represents fund returns, $ \hat{y}_i $ represents predicted returns, and $ \bar{y} $ represents the mean of fund returns[18][19][24] - The model is evaluated as effective in identifying the most relevant benchmark index for fund performance, providing a robust framework for fund classification and strategy analysis[18][24] - The backtesting results of the model show that the average R² value for equity funds decreased slightly from 0.7478 in December to 0.7336 in January, indicating a slight reduction in the fit of funds to single benchmark indices[34] - The report categorizes equity funds into five styles: large-cap, mid-small-cap, value, growth, and thematic sectors. The classification is based on the benchmark index with the highest R² value derived from the model[24][27][33] - The performance of mid-small-cap funds was the highest in January, with a median return of 8.18%, followed by growth funds at 7.08%, large-cap funds at 4.13%, value funds at 3.88%, and thematic sector funds at 3.37%[24][25][27] - The thematic sector funds are further divided into categories such as healthcare, cyclical, infrastructure, consumption, technology, finance, and advanced manufacturing. Among these, cyclical funds performed the best, with an average return of 21.6% for active funds and 18.2% for passive funds[27][30][32] - The report highlights high-rated funds, defined as AAA and AA+ funds, which demonstrate strong alpha sustainability and upward alpha trends. AAA funds are stable alpha-type funds suitable for long-term holdings, while AA+ funds exhibit steadily increasing alpha values, indicating strong potential for excess returns[47][48][49] - The report identifies new emerging funds, defined as funds receiving their first rating this month and managed by fund managers with less than three years of experience. These funds predominantly track indices such as CSI Dividend and CSI 300[63][64] - The report also highlights funds with significant rating upgrades, defined as funds whose ratings improved substantially compared to the previous month. These funds are primarily aligned with indices such as CSI Cyclical, CSI Dividend, and TMT (CITIC)[65][66]

行 业 传媒 2026 年 02 月 13 日 研 究 字节 AI 视频"出圈"：Seedance 2.0 重塑行业格 局 投资要点： 一、事件概述：Seedance 2.0 内测即"出圈"，引爆海内外关注 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 近日字节跳动发布 AI 视频生成模型 Seedance 2.0，凭借"电影级" 生成效果迅速引爆社交媒体。该模型支持文本、图片、视频、音频四 种模态输入（最多 12 个参考文件），最长生成 15 秒 2K 视频，原生支 持音画同步与口型匹配。据新华网，内测上线后相关话题迅速在国内 外社交平台刷屏，多条 Seedance 2.0 演示视频播放量破百万，相关关键 词冲上微博热搜，并在海外社媒引发大量讨论与分享。 二、核心突破：从"抽卡式生成"到"导演级可控创作" 传媒 强于大市（维持评级） Seedance 2.0 在如下维度实现升级：（1）自分镜/自运镜：根据用 户描述的情节自动规划分镜和运镜，无需用户精确描述具体镜头动作， 大幅简化创作流程；（2）多镜头角色一致性：通过原生多模态架构深 度融合视觉与听觉信号，维持角色外貌与场景设定的一致性；（3）质 量和成本：据 36 氪，Seed ...

策 略 研 究 历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外 降息节奏不及预期;地缘政治风险。 分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 杨逸帆(S0210124110046) yyf30689@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 2026 年 02 月 13 日 中美 AI 产业或将再度向上——2026 年度策略系列报告 团队成员 投资要点： 叙事复盘：从技术革命的产业传导路径观察，三类公司或有望把握不 同阶段的投资机遇：1）上游核心技术及设备供应商；2）由新技术直接催 生的新需求所对应的公司；3）将新技术应用于现有行业、实现赋能改造的 公司。对应中美 2 次科技行情：1985-2005 年的美国互联网革命呈现为一个 清晰的"基础协议奠基-硬件普及加速-关键应用引爆-商业模式重塑"的传 导链条。2007-2015 年 A 股移动互联网周期，其演进遵循"通信基建-智能 终端-应用生态-资本映射"的传导路径。 华福证券 证 券 估值复盘：在技术革命的演进过程中，行情驱动因素往往呈现从估值 向盈利切换的规律：1）行情启动初期，市场 ...

Group 1: Private Credit Market Overview - The private credit market in the U.S. has grown to nearly $1.3 trillion, accounting for about 10% of total commercial bank credit as of 2023[3] - Private credit primarily serves small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with non-bank investors like pension funds and insurance companies participating through private credit funds and Business Development Companies (BDCs)[3] - BDCs are required to disclose data regularly, providing a window into the private credit market, with BDCs managing assets that have tripled since 2020[19] Group 2: Credit Quality and Returns - Cash flows for many mid-sized companies are recovering post-rate cuts, but BDC shareholder returns are declining due to lower profitability and mandatory profit distribution requirements[4] - The average dividend coverage ratio for publicly traded BDCs fell from 1.34 in mid-2023 to 1.08 by September 2025, indicating weakened ability to cover dividends[4] - Non-accrual investments in BDCs have increased from 0.8% in 2022 to over 1.2% by Q3 2025, suggesting rising credit risk[4] Group 3: Rising Default Risks - Credit rating agencies report an upward trend in default rates within the private credit market, with "invisible defaults" also on the rise, indicating hidden risks[5] - The software and healthcare sectors are particularly vulnerable, with software companies facing high leverage and potential disruption from AI advancements[5] - Nearly 14% of commercial real estate loans are in negative equity, raising concerns about the stability of this sector[5]

Employment Data - In January, non-farm employment increased significantly by 130,000, surpassing the expected 65,000, marking the largest increase since January 2025[7] - Private sector employment added 172,000 jobs in January, with a three-month average of 103,000 and a fourth-quarter average of 50,000[7] - The education and healthcare sectors contributed the majority of the employment increase, adding 137,000 jobs[8] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, driven by improved job demand[9] - The labor participation rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, primarily due to increases in the 20-54 age group[13] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%[19] - Year-on-year wage growth decreased slightly to 3.7%, remaining stable within the 3.7%-3.9% range since the second half of 2025[19] Market Expectations - Following the strong employment data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March dropped from 21.7% to 7.9%, and the probability of a cut before June decreased from 75% to 59.8%[2] - U.S. stock indices rose, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.2% before retreating[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][21]. Core Insights - The company is acquiring a 51% stake in Huayan Technology for 448.8 million RMB, which will make Huayan a subsidiary and included in the consolidated financial statements. The performance commitment for Huayan is a non-net profit of at least 75 million RMB, 100 million RMB, and 155 million RMB for the years 2026 to 2028 respectively [3][4]. - The acquisition price reflects a valuation of approximately 8.0X PE and 4.0X PB based on the average performance commitment, which is at a discount compared to comparable transactions [4]. - The expected net profit contribution from Huayan to the company's consolidated financials is estimated to be between 38 million RMB and 79 million RMB, which corresponds to an increase of approximately 2.7% to 5.6% to the company's net profit for 2024 [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 1.637 billion RMB, 1.916 billion RMB, and 2.210 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 17%, and 15% respectively [6][7]. - Revenue projections for the company are 17.157 billion RMB, 19.129 billion RMB, 21.315 billion RMB, and 23.262 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2027, with growth rates of 13%, 11%, 11%, and 9% respectively [7][14].

华福证券 2026 年 02 月 11 日 固 定 收 益 Q4 货政报告显示政策稳增长诉求提升 但宽松落 地时点仍需观察 投资要点： Q4 货政报告的内容并未超过 12 月的货币政策例会以及 1 月的新闻发 布会，整体增量信息相对有限。我们认为值得关注的信息有以下几点： 团队成员 1、本次报告对防风险的担忧减弱，对稳增长的诉求增强 固 定 收 益 点 评 在基本面上，Q4 报告对国内经济仍然维持信心，但提到了经济供强需 弱的问题。而在下阶段的政策基调中，央行在原先要平衡好的四个关系中， 删掉了平衡好"稳增长与防风险"的关系，原先"把促进物价合理回升作 为把握货币政策的重要考量"调整为"把促进经济稳定增长、 物价合理回 升作为货币政策的重要考量"。这可能体现显示了在 Q4GDP 增速降至 4.5% 后，中央对稳增长的诉求有所增强，同时货币政策对于因宽松带来的风险 的担忧也明显减弱，这可能也是近期货币政策基调整体宽松的重要原因。 而在货政报告公布后《金融时报》也并未再如 Q3 报告公布后，提到"警 惕过度放松金融条件带来负面影响"之类的说法。 2、央行并未透露总量政策落地的信号，降准降息可能还需根据中央整 体部 ...

宏 观 研 究 从"先手棋"到"组合拳" ——2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 贷款利率延续下降。央行公布，2025 年末，金融机构贷款利率较三季 度下降 10bp 至 3.15%。从分项来看，一般贷款利率延续回落 12bp 至 3.55%， 票据利率和房贷利率较三季度均保持稳定，分别为 1.14%和 3.06%。2025 年，央行利用降准降息、公开市场操作、再贷款再贴现等多种货币政策工 具有效支持，叠加 10 月恢 复公开市场国债买卖操作，四季度流动性边际 转宽，2025 年末，金融机构超额准备金率回升至 1.5%，相较于 9 月末高 0.1 个百分点，比上年同期高 0.4 个百分点。 证 券 研 究 报 告 支持"增量需求"，政策重在一致性。四季度货币政策执行报告中，央 行对于经济形势的担忧加深，一方面，海外贸易壁垒、通胀风险和货币政 策调整的不确定性仍存，另一方面，国内主要面临供强需弱的挑战。基于 以上判断，首先，货币政策更强调宏观政策一致性，2026 年货币政策的逆 周期调节将更灵活、精准，总量与结构性工具并举；其次，下一阶段货币 政策的重点仍是扩内需，央行本篇报告新 ...