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AI眼镜进入验证期;潮玩IP工业化加速
Huafu Securities· 2026-02-08 13:41
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The AI glasses have entered the delivery verification phase, with Rokid achieving a significant milestone by surpassing 15,000 units shipped globally, marking a rare case of substantial delivery in the domestic AI glasses market [2][13] - The smart glasses industry has transitioned from an engineering verification phase dominated by AR/MR headsets to a consumer exploration phase driven by lightweight designs and AI capabilities, focusing on everyday wearability and comfort [3][15] - The trend in the collectible toy industry has shifted from niche art toys to mainstream cultural consumption, with IP industrialization accelerating, indicating a structural upgrade in the market [4][21] Summary by Sections AI Glasses - Rokid AI Glasses Style has officially launched globally, with over 15,000 units shipped as of February 2, indicating a successful entry into the consumer market [13] - The product is designed for daily wear, weighing only 38.5g, and features AI capabilities such as real-time translation and information queries, emphasizing its role as a primary eyewear option [13][15] - The industry focus has shifted from the feasibility of technology to whether products can support real consumer demand, with key performance indicators now including sales volume, return rates, and customer retention [15] Collectible Toys - Recent collaborations, such as the partnership between Miniso and CCTV for Spring Festival IP derivatives, highlight the cultural significance of collectible toys, moving them into broader consumer markets [4][24] - The SPACE MOLLY toy, which completed a space round trip, represents a new cultural narrative, transforming collectible toys into symbols of exploration and future imagination [21][23] - The collectible toy industry has evolved from a focus on individual IP to a model of industrialized production and cultural output, with a shift towards high turnover and multi-IP strategies [29][30]
大科技海外周报第5期:布局节后科技行情-20260208
Huafu Securities· 2026-02-08 13:41
半导体 2026 年 02 月 08 日 行 业 研 究 半导体 布局节后科技行情 ——大科技海外周报第 5 期 科技多板块持续回调,关注板块内超跌个股。 行 业 定 期 报 告 过去两周科技多板块持续回调,26/01/28-26/02/06 期间,半导体(申 万)下跌 9.30%,万得 AI 眼镜主题指数下跌 8.51%、国证算力下跌 8.48%、卫星通信下跌 8.23%、机器人指数下跌 4.82%,同期,上证指 数下跌 1.80%,科技行业多板块回调幅度显著,我们认为短期板块的 回调更多是资金和情绪驱动,各成长方向产业趋势明确,中长期具有 坚实的基本面趋势支撑,建议关注板块内超跌个股的机会。 布局节后科技行情。 1)Agent 带动 CPU 需求:近期国产 Agent 在春节前已开启"红 包大战",Agent APP 下载量迎来显著增长,我们预计 Agent 的投流推 广将带来增量的 CPU 和 GPU 需求,据我们前期观点,在 Agent 快速 发展的 AI 时代,系统设计需从以 GPU 为中心转向 CPU-GPU 协同。 预计在 Agent 持续发展的过程中,CPU 需求有望被拉动,建议关注国 产 C ...
一周观点:美元体系裂痕出现或将难以修复,美股易跌难涨-20260208
Huafu Securities· 2026-02-08 11:49
华福证券 2026 年 02 月 08 日 策 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 美元体系裂痕出现或将难以修复,美股易跌难涨 ——周观点 投资要点: 近期观点 1、 全球宏观定价逻辑继续由"需求驱动"向"供给约束定价" 切换,中国供给秩序强化进入盈利与价格数据验证阶段,资产定价权 逐步向供给端集中。 2、 美元信用长期承压的叙事未发生改变,美国通过居民部门维 持需求的路径边际趋弱,全球需求扩张机制或面临结构性收缩风险。 告 3、 全球资金配置逻辑继续演绎"短期盾与长期矛",大宗商品 与黄金仍受避险资金支撑,但其上涨逻辑偏信用避险而非需求扩张, 中期空间或存在上限。 4、 美国资产上涨越来越依赖 AI 投资与财政驱动,而非居民部门 杠杆,长期 ROE 中枢下移趋势未变。 5、 中国定价资产或将成为年度风格主线,重点围绕供给约束强 化与 ROE 趋势性回升,顺周期重资产行业的盈利弹性开始释放。 6、 中期看好围绕中国 PPI 复苏相关的投资机会,煤炭,钢铁, 化工,建材,农业等顺周期行业,看好中国优势重资产龙头。 7、 长期看好保险,央国企,反内卷,中概互联网。 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻;中美关系改善不及预期; ...
中药再迎政策催化,医药情绪春节前后或将逆转
Huafu Securities· 2026-02-08 09:07
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The top-level policy for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has been clarified, emphasizing high-quality development and supporting industry leaders. The "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry (2026-2030)" was released on February 6, 2026, outlining the development framework for the next five years. The plan highlights the importance of leading companies and innovation in driving industry growth [5][16][21]. - The TCM sector is expected to experience a turning point due to policy support, improved consumer environment, declining raw material prices, and inventory clearance. Key companies to watch include brand TCM firms like China Resources Sanjiu, Dong-E E-Jiao, Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical, and Mayinglong, as well as innovative TCM drug companies like Yiling Pharmaceutical and Fangsheng Pharmaceutical [5][22]. Market Review - In the week from February 2 to February 6, 2026, the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 0.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.7 percentage points, ranking 12th among CITIC's primary industry classifications. Since the beginning of 2026, the CITIC Pharmaceutical and Biotech sector index has increased by 3.3%, also outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.0 percentage points, ranking 19th [4][25]. - The top five performing stocks during this week were: Guangshentang (+29.8%), Haixiang Pharmaceutical (+18.6%), Meidixi (+18.0%), Tianzhihang (+17.6%), and Saike Xide (+14.5%) [4][39]. Short-term Investment Thoughts - The pharmaceutical sector has shown signs of recovery after a period of adjustment, with market sentiment expected to reverse around the Spring Festival. The performance of traditional Chinese medicine has been particularly strong, likely due to the recent policy announcements. The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, medical devices, and companies benefiting from domestic demand [6][22]. - Recommended stocks for February include Heng Rui Medicine, Kangfang Biotech, Baiji Shenzhou, Ying'en Biotech, Tiger Medical, Microelectrophysiology, Huana Pharmaceutical, and Haite Biotech [6][12].
铁路系统锚定发展目标,客运提质货运增量启新程
Huafu Securities· 2026-02-08 09:06
轨交设备Ⅱ 2026 年 02 月 08 日 业 研 究 轨交设备Ⅱ 铁路系统锚定发展目标,客运提质货运增量启新程 投资要点: 精准发力施策,北京局多维赋能发展大局 行 业 定 期 报 告 中国铁路北京局集团紧扣发展目标,立足区位特点锚定"首善" 标准推进各项工作。服务京津冀协同发展,首次开行环线高铁,优化 列车运行时刻与开行方案,提升区域通达性和客运承载能力;深化客 运提质,优化车站服务、扩大多类便民服务范围,定制开行特色专列、 擦亮旅游列车品牌,激活文旅新动能;聚焦货运增量,发力核心及新 兴品类运输,推进市场化运营改革,盘活货场并构建多式联运体系, 提升货运市场份额的同时助力降低社会物流成本。 聚焦重点攻坚,兰州局多措并举提质增效 中国铁路兰州局集团围绕客运提质、货运增量等重点落实工作会 议精神。客运方面升级列车品牌服务、打造车站品牌样板,落地多项 提质项目并试点便民服务,做强旅游线路、打造特色旅游列车,力争 年内开行超 110 列旅游列车;货运方面与企业签订大宗协议锁定货源, 深化合作拓展运量,发展高附加值货物运输和多式联运;同时完成铁 路站点、设备改造,增加中转列车,系统补强点线能力、保障运输畅 通。 ...
流动性与机构行为周度跟踪260207:DR001时隔1月重回1.3下方存单年内首现净融资-20260208
Huafu Securities· 2026-02-08 07:30
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The central bank's over - renewal of repurchase and large - scale 14 - day reverse repurchase reflect its intention to maintain liquidity stability before the Spring Festival. As long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the capital market around the Spring Festival is expected to remain loose. The net financing of certificates of deposit this week may be due to banks' need to maintain stable liabilities before the festival, and it's hard to infer a significant increase in banks' liability pressure. The government bond net payment scale may rise next week, but considering the central bank's measures, the capital market is still expected to be relatively loose [5][38][60]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Capital Market Review - The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of 756 billion yuan through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchases this week. On Wednesday, it conducted an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase, with an over - renewal of 10 billion yuan. After the month - end, the OMO shifted to net withdrawal, but the capital demand at the beginning of the month was limited. Despite the increasing pressure of government bond payments in the second half of the week, the over - renewal of the 3 - month repurchase and the subsequent 14 - day OMO operations made the capital market looser, and DR001 fell below 1.3% on Friday [3][17]. - After the month - end, the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to rise, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 0.95 trillion yuan to 8.75 trillion yuan. The overall scale of pledged repurchase rose rapidly at the beginning of the month and then fluctuated, remaining above 13 trillion yuan on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks continued to rise, while that of small and medium - sized banks decreased slightly. The net lending of non - bank institutions showed different trends, and the capital gap index generally declined [4][24]. - The progress of cross - Spring Festival financing in the inter - bank and exchange markets was at the lowest level in recent years, and the gap compared with previous years in the inter - bank market continued to widen. The overall cross - Spring Festival progress in the whole market was 13.1%, 8.1 percentage points lower than the average of the same period from 2020 - 2025 [29]. 1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 46.04 billion yuan. Next week, the issuance of 7 - year treasury bonds is about 20 billion yuan, and 8 regions will issue local bonds worth 32.21 billion yuan. Due to the low maturity scale of government bonds next week, the net payment scale of government bonds may rise to 71.41 billion yuan [39][41]. - The central bank's use of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations shows its clear attitude of protecting liquidity. The 6 - month repurchase due next week is expected to be over - renewed, so the capital market is expected to remain relatively loose [60]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 1.11 BP to 1.6169% compared with January 30th. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1 BP to 1.585% compared with last week [61]. - This week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased, resulting in a net financing of 37.27 billion yuan, an increase of 46.29 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 9.46 billion yuan, 8.82 billion yuan, 13.69 billion yuan, and 2.59 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 9 - month certificates of deposit was the largest, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 17 percentage points to 13% compared with last week. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 97.82 billion yuan, an increase of 84.43 billion yuan compared with this week [67]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks all increased compared with last week, and were around the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [68]. - The willingness of money market funds to increase the holding of certificates of deposit in the primary market recovered, and the willingness of fund companies to reduce the holding in the secondary market weakened. The relative strength index of certificates of deposit rebounded counter - seasonally in the second half of the week, rising by 3.9 percentage points to 19.6% compared with last week. Except for the 9 - month supply - demand index, the supply - demand indexes of other terms increased [75]. 3. Bill Market - This week, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased, with a large decline on Monday. As of February 6th, the 3 - month and 6 - month bill interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased by 44 BP and 16 BP respectively compared with January 30th, to 1.01% and 0.95% [82]. 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the yields of interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward, and the credit and perpetual bond spreads generally widened passively. Large - scale banks generally tended to reduce their bond holdings, with an increased willingness to reduce local bonds and a decreased willingness to increase inter - bank certificates of deposit, 5 - year policy - financial bonds, 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds. Trading - type institutions generally tended to increase their bond holdings, with different trends among different institutions. Allocation - type institutions generally tended to increase their bond holdings, with different trends among different institutions [85].
全球核电发展提速,装机目标或超三倍核能愿景:机械设备
Huafu Securities· 2026-02-08 07:30
行 华福证券 机械设备 2026 年 02 月 08 日 业 研 究 机械设备 全球核电发展提速,装机目标或超三倍核能愿景 投资要点: 世界核协会最新报告显示全球核电装机目标远超预期 行 业 定 期 报 告 世界核协会最新报告显示,若各国落实核电开发目标,2050 年全 球核电装机容量有望达 1446GWe,远超三倍核能宣言的 1200GWe 目 标。目前全球有 440 台在运核电机组,70 台在建,2024 年核能发电量 创历史新高,多国也已承诺支持三倍装机目标。报告测算不同阶段核 电增长动力各有不同,2030 年前靠在建机组,2035 年前靠规划项目, 2035 年后则由拟建、潜在项目及政府计划支撑,同时各国还有约 542GWe 无具体项目支撑的装机目标,政策保障力度也存在差异。 明确装机需求,多方协同推动目标落地 报告明确了 2026 至 2050 年各阶段核电年均装机需求,其中 2046 到 2050 年每年需装机 65.3GWe,约为核电建设历史峰值速度的两倍。 为实现目标,WNA 提出多项建议,各国政府需将核电纳入长期规划、 制定可行产业战略、支持核电机组延寿并完善相关机制,金融机构要 实施技术中 ...
链传动赋能仿生智造,征和工业助力具身智能新突破:机械设备
Huafu Securities· 2026-02-08 07:29
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the world's first fully bionic embodied intelligent robot, the "Moya" series, by Zhuoyide, with Zhenghe Industrial as a core strategic partner. Zhenghe Industrial has leveraged its 30 years of chain transmission technology to develop a micro chain system and chain joint module for this robot, marking a significant technological breakthrough [3][4]. - Zhenghe Industrial is expanding its applications in robotic chain transmission, focusing on high-precision and lightweight bionic chain joints and durable dexterous hands. This collaboration aims to create adaptable chain transmission solutions for various scenarios, including civil care and industrial operations [4]. - The report anticipates that humanoid robots will significantly benefit humanity by taking over repetitive physical labor. The Chinese humanoid robot market is projected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030, and sales expected to grow from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units [5].
中央政治局集体学习聚焦脑机接口等未来产业技术,解码脑机接口产业发展内核:机械设备
Huafu Securities· 2026-02-08 07:29
行 业 297 机械设备 2026 年 02 月 08 日 研 究 中央政治局集体学习聚焦脑机接口等未来产业技术,解 码脑机接口产业发展内核 投资要点: 认清产业本质,脑机接口是超复杂系统工程 行 业 定 期 报 告 中央政治局第二十四次集体学习将脑机接口列为未来产业重点方 向,在脑机接口明确为未来产业重点方向之后,一个更值得深入讨论 的问题是:脑机接口究竟是一类什么样的产业形态——其并非单一技 术领域,而是兼具技术高度耦合、产业链与跨学科跨度大的超复杂系 统工程,由神经科学研究、硬件制造、算法研发等多子系统构成,各 环节动态闭环且相互制约。我国当前发展该产业存在明显短板,核心 软硬件存在外部依赖形成的 "软硬分离" 问题,同时脑数据标准不 统一、算力调度分散等基础设施薄弱问题,也制约了技术迭代与产业 发展。 聚焦系统构建,多维度夯实产业发展底座 我国脑机接口产业已进入底座构建期,发展的关键并非单点技术 突破,而是完成系统整合的跃迁。需先明确国家级技术路线图并建设 脑数据国家库等共享基础设施,再建立科研、产业、区域多层级协同 机制,同时完善覆盖全生命周期的监管体系并参与国际标准制定,更 要通过高校交叉学科布局 ...
20260207周报:宏观情绪冲击,金属价格波动剧烈-20260207
Huafu Securities· 2026-02-07 09:29
行 华福证券 有色金属 2026 年 02 月 07 日 业 研 究 有色金属 20260207 周报:宏观情绪冲击,金属价格波动剧 烈 投资要点: 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属:银价高位回落,情绪主导波动剧烈。本周银价高位回落,周内 价格振幅异常剧烈,连续出现跌停走势,体现多头获利盘止盈导致的集中 抛售压力。宏观方面消息成为贵金属价格大幅回落的诱因之一。美国总统 特朗普于1月30日提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席,而非此前市场预期 的热门人选哈塞特。该提名需经过参议院批准,但因对现任主席鲍威尔的 司法调查而陷入僵局。同时基于沃什反对量化宽松和对通胀与降息的谨慎 观点,市场降低了此前较为乐观的2026年降息预期。中长期而言,全球关 税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下,避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核 心,长期配置价值不改。个股:黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄金,A股关注 紫金、中金、赤峰及西金等;H股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集海等。银铂钯 均为黄金的贝塔,个股关注盛达、湖银、豫光、贵研及浩通等。 工业金属:宏观因素冲击,铜铝高位回调。铜,本周铜价回调,市场 交易热度有明显提升,市场的逢低采买情绪较强,但考虑到目前正处 ...