Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - By the end of 2025, the loan interest rate from financial institutions decreased by 10 basis points to 3.15% compared to Q3 2025[3] - The general loan interest rate fell by 12 basis points to 3.55%, while the bill and mortgage rates remained stable at 1.14% and 3.06% respectively[3] - The central bank's excess reserve ratio rose to 1.5% by the end of 2025, up 0.1 percentage points from September and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year[3] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - The report emphasizes the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to support domestic demand, with the government expected to be the main driver of leverage in 2026[4] - The central bank has shifted from a proactive monetary policy to a synchronized approach with fiscal measures, indicating a change in the sequence of policy implementation[4] - The government utilized a limit of 500 billion yuan in local bond reserves in October 2025, prompting the central bank to restart government bond trading[4] Group 3: Liquidity and Financial Structure - The central bank proposed merging asset management products with bank deposits to better observe liquidity in the financial system, indicating a structural change rather than a total liquidity reduction[5] - The growth rate of combined household and corporate deposits is closely aligned with M2 growth, showing no significant volatility in overall liquidity[5] - The central bank aims to shift focus from quantity targets to a price-based model for economic influence through interest rate adjustments[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The central bank expresses heightened concerns about economic conditions, citing challenges such as trade barriers and inflation risks, alongside domestic supply-demand imbalances[6] - Future monetary policy will emphasize macro policy consistency, with a flexible and precise counter-cyclical adjustment expected in 2026[6] - Risks include potential policy changes, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and the possibility of historical experiences becoming less applicable[6]

2026 年 02 月 10 日 金 融 工 程 高维宏观周期驱动风格、行业月报(2026/2):经济 景气下行、通胀细分项下行看好小盘红利风格 投资要点： 传统宏观因子、宏观周期的高维度体系构建 金 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 宏观因子变量的构建：将宏观指数分别对宽基指数、代理宏观变 量做回归，选取 t 值显著的细分宏观变量，用过去一年标准差倒数加权 构建宏观因子变量。采用单边 HP 滤波器对宏观经济数据进行调整，消 除短期波动对长期趋势判断的影响。基于滤波变量，分别用因子动量 划分宏观趋势（上行、下行）和用时序百分位划分宏观状态（高、中、 低位）。 宏观因子升维的必要性：宏观因子 A 对宽基、风格和行业的价格 传导在 A 的不同边际变化不一致，且宏观因子 A 在宏观因子 B 的不同 状态下驱动宽基、风格和行业的收益方向也不同。同一状态及其边际 变化所对应的周期混乱，我们需要将宏观变量的边际与状态结合，综 合考虑宏观变量的变化趋势和所处的时序排位。 多信号驱动下的指数择时、风格轮动 小盘全指择时：在库存处于中等向上水平时预测值最高，因此推 荐配置中证全指。 2012 年 1 月末起至 2026 年 1 月 ...

华福证券 2026 年 02 月 10 日 金 融 工 程 金 融 工 程 定 期 报 衍生品信号反转，股指升水、波动预期升温——2 月衍生品月报（2026/2） 投资要点： 股指期货 主要股指（沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500 和中证 1000）市场活跃 度 12 月份止住跌势，2026 年 1 月份成交额出现反弹。 告 从贴水比例来看，IF 和 IM 合约由贴水转为升水，显示市场最近 空头力量持续较弱，情绪中性偏乐观。 国债期货 1 月份国债期货小幅震荡， 10 年期国债期货对应隐含收益率为 1.69%，低于现货对应的 1.8%。 从升贴水结构来看，近远月合约价差在 0 附近波动，整体投资者 对于未来债券市场情绪中性偏乐观。 期权市场 1 月份主要指数 VIX 中枢向上提升，市场波动率预期相比之前有 所上升。 期权市场 PCR，上证 50 和沪深 300 指数的 PCR 在 1 月有所下降， PCR 指标显示市场情绪中性偏谨慎。 风险提示 本报告所有分析均基于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议；若市场 环境或政策因素发生不利变化将可能造成行业发展表现不及预期；报 告采用的样本数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整 ...

行 华福证券 游戏Ⅱ 2026 年 02 月 10 日 业 研 究 游戏Ⅱ 叠纸：不靠沉迷的《恋与》为何留存稳定？ 投资要点： 摘要核心句 行 业 专 题 报 告 我们认为，"恋与"系列的成功并非传统意义上的内容爆款或沉 迷型设计，而是通过"关系连续性 + 陪伴系统 + 关键情绪节点付费" 重构了手游留存与变现范式：其用户粘性并不依赖高频在线，而建立 在长期情感关系之上，从而形成"DAU 不极端、但收入长期稳定"的 反直觉结构。该模式本质是一种低频但可反复激活的内容消费模型， 使产品生命周期显著长于行业平均，并为女性向及情绪价值型游戏打 开了可复制的商业路径。 投资建议 我们建议重点关注具备以下能力的厂商： 该类公司具备更长生命周期、更平滑收入曲线及更高低频用户价 值，对应估值应从"爆款概率模型"转向"关系资产复利模型"。建 议中长期关注女性向、陪伴型互动内容及情绪消费赛道中已完成产品 验证、且具备持续内容供给能力的头部厂商。 风险提示 内容节奏与情绪节点失误，可能削弱用户长期陪伴感。 新品复制难度与单 IP 依赖，可能导致新品表现不稳定。 用户偏好变化风险，边际吸引力可能逐步下降。 行业与政策环境收紧，或抬 ...

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2026 年 02 月 09 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 供应增量显现，猪价反弹后下跌 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：供应增量显现，猪价反弹后下跌。（1）上周猪价先涨后跌。 周初价格回落下多地二育进场积极性提升，叠加月初养殖主体缩量出栏， 推动周中前期猪价反弹；随后养殖端出栏节奏加快，市场供给压力随之增 加，导致周后期猪价回落。2 月 8 日猪价 11.84 元/公斤，周环比-0.47 元/ 公斤。2 月 6 日行业自繁自养、外购仔猪养殖利润分别为-38.09、91.42 元/ 头，周环比-63.19、-32.71 元/头。（2）上周生猪屠宰量上升，冻品库存下 降。当下市场进入季节性消费旺季增量期，整体宰量级呈回升表现。上周 样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 19.37 万头，周环比+2.95%。冻品方面，腊月 期间，屠企加快消化冻品库存，同时部分深加工食品厂也迎来年末备货需 求，市场冻品去库需求有所释放。截至 2 月 5 日当周，行业冻品库存率 17.91%，周环比-0.40pct。（3）上周生猪出栏均重继续下降。上周生猪出 栏均重继续下降。临近春节，养殖主体出栏积极性整体较高 ...

Investment Themes - The report identifies several investment themes based on market trends, including "right-side breakout" for Huangjiu, soybeans, and epoxy propylene, which are showing sustained performance [4][10] - "Right-side trends" are noted in sectors such as photovoltaics, power IoT, target materials, new energy equipment, and aluminum, indicating ongoing positive momentum [4][10] - New themes showing signs of stabilization at the bottom include generic drugs, service robots, consumer finance, smart logistics, and electric vehicles [4][10] - Newly identified themes indicating a bottom reversal include lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium battery electrolytes, and mobile phone batteries [4][10] Right-Side Breakout Opportunities - The Huangjiu index has shown a 5% increase over 20 days, while the soybean index has experienced a 3% increase, indicating potential investment opportunities [11] - The epoxy propylene index has a 12% increase over 20 days, suggesting strong performance in the basic chemical sector [11] Right-Side Trend Opportunities - The photovoltaic index has shown a 13% increase year-to-date (YTD), indicating strong growth potential in the power equipment sector [13] - Other indices such as the BC battery index and the power IoT index have also shown positive trends with YTD increases of 17% and 9%, respectively [13] Bottom Stabilization Opportunities - The CAR-T therapy index and the generic drug index have shown signs of stabilization, with the latter having a 3-day performance of 0% [17] - The electric vehicle index has also stabilized, with a slight increase of 1% over 5 days, indicating potential for recovery [17] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - The mobile phone battery index has shown a 2% increase over 5 days, while the lithium hexafluorophosphate index has a 3% increase, suggesting a potential turnaround in these sectors [19] - The lithium battery electrolyte index has also shown a 3% increase, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The basic chemical sector has experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the ChiNext Index down 3.28%, and the CSI 300 down 1.33% during the week [2][14] - Key developments include the H-share listing of Guoen Co., Ltd. and a 20% capacity expansion of TDI at Covestro's Shanghai base [4][5] Industry Performance Overview - The chemical sector's performance this week shows the top five sub-industries with gains: Tires (1.69%), Coatings and Inks (0.13%), Other Chemical Products III (0%), Food and Feed Additives (-0.14%), and Synthetic Resins (-0.25%) [3][17] - The bottom five sub-industries with losses include Viscose (-5.79%), Titanium Dioxide (-4.24%), Pesticides (-4.03%), Phosphate Fertilizers and Phosphate Chemicals (-3.91%), and Membrane Materials (-3.79%) [3][17] Key Industry Dynamics - Guoen Co., Ltd. has officially listed its H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a new chapter in its capital market strategy [4] - Covestro has completed a major capacity expansion for TDI production at its Shanghai facility, increasing annual capacity from 310,000 tons to 370,000 tons, a nearly 20% increase [4] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The domestic tire sector shows strong competitiveness, with notable companies such as Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire worth monitoring [5] - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit. Key companies include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Lite-On Optoelectronics, and Ruile New Materials [5] - Investment Theme 3: Focus on resilient cyclical industries and inventory destocking leading to a potential bottom reversal, particularly in phosphate and fluorochemical sectors [5] - Investment Theme 4: As the economy improves and demand recovers, leading companies in the chemical sector are expected to benefit significantly [5]

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 09 日 节后债市或延续节前趋势 1.8%或由阻力变支撑 团队成员 投资要点： 固 定 上周利率债表现偏强。尽管周初 10 年国债新券短暂突破 1.8%后受止 盈情绪影响再度调整，但此后在大行的持续买入下，10 年国债也经受住了 风险偏好修复、地方债集中发行等因素的扰动，此后随着交易情绪回暖利 率再度走低，10 年期国债利率再度降至 1.8%附近，10 年政金债以及 30 年 国债的下行幅度更大。随着春节临近，也有部分投资者关注长假因素是否 会对市场趋势带来扰动。 收 益 专 题 从历史看，节后债市的表现一般都是节前趋势的延续。过去单数年份 利率容易在春节前后上行，但双数年份利率反而多在春节前后下行，唯一 的例外是 2022 年利率在节前回落、节后走高，但这一年的特殊性在于央行 在节前降息落地，节后利率在止盈情绪和对信贷的担忧下出现了上行。之 所以呈现出这样的状态，主要还是因为岁末年末市场往往都对市场的状态 进行了充分定价，市场结构会得到一定程度的出清，而年初货币政策的导 向往往也会根据新一年的目标进行调整，而这样的调整一般也不会因为春 节因素发生变化，后续的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Shanghai government has initiated a pilot program for purchasing second-hand housing, with expectations for further policy support [3] - The report indicates that the effective investment policies discussed in the State Council meeting will focus on infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries, aiming to promote significant projects [3] - The report notes that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various supportive measures being implemented, including tax reductions and subsidies for home purchases [3] - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in housing demand due to declining interest rates and improved purchasing power [6] Summary by Sections Recent High-Frequency Data - As of February 6, 2026, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 329.1 CNY/ton, down 0.2% week-on-week and down 15.3% year-on-year [4][14] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1105.7 CNY/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week but up 2.8% year-on-year [20][24] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index both fell by 1.27%, while the construction materials index rose by 0.7% [5][55] - Sub-sectors such as glass manufacturing (+5.32%) and cement products (+4.74%) performed well, while fiberglass manufacturing (-1.81%) and refractory materials (-3.24%) saw declines [5][55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials and Beixin Building Materials [6] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu and Dongfang Yuhong [6] 3. Leading cyclical construction material companies showing signs of bottoming out, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [11]. Core Insights - The introduction of the capacity price mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration marks a significant shift in the new energy storage sector from a policy-driven approach to a market-driven demand approach [3][4]. - The capacity price mechanism is expected to enhance the revenue streams for new energy storage, with a projected capacity price of 165 RMB/k·year leading to compensation income of approximately 17 million RMB for a 100MW/4h independent storage station [4]. - The current market conditions show a recovery in investment willingness as lithium carbonate futures prices have returned to below 150,000 RMB, indicating a stabilization in the supply chain and production rates among leading storage battery manufacturers [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Background and Purpose - The policy aims to promote the full market entry of renewable energy and establish a capacity price mechanism for new energy storage alongside coal and pumped storage [3]. - The experience from mature markets suggests that long-term capacity contracts are crucial for ensuring reasonable internal rate of return (IRR) for new energy storage [3]. Capacity Price Mechanism - The expected capacity price will allow coal power plants to recover fixed costs, with a target of at least 50% recovery [4]. - The reliable capacity is defined as the capacity that can provide stable power supply during peak demand periods, with a reliability coefficient example of 67% for a 4h storage system [4]. Current Status of Energy Storage - The rise in lithium carbonate prices has negatively impacted the investment sentiment, but the situation is improving as prices stabilize [5]. - Leading companies in the energy storage sector are expected to benefit from the surge in overseas demand, which will help mitigate fluctuations in domestic demand [5].