中国石油：经营稳健，股息仍具吸引力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum (601857.SH/00857.HK) with a target price of 12 RMB/8.3 HKD [4][6]. Core Views - The energy oil and gas market remains favorable, with expectations of increased downstream demand for crude oil due to the upcoming summer travel season. The company has stable operations and abundant upstream resources, leading to strong earnings certainty. The company emphasizes shareholder rights with a long-term commitment to high dividend ratios, making the dividend configuration value still significant [4][6]. - The company has successfully increased the proportion of direct supply and sales to customers, enhancing sales volume efficiency. The decline in natural gas costs has led to a noticeable increase in profits, with the NYMEX natural gas average price for H1 2024 at 2.19 USD/million BTU, down 14% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 171 billion, 179 billion, and 182 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +6%, +4%, and +2%. The corresponding P/E ratios for A-shares are 10.4, 9.9, and 9.8, while for H-shares they are 7.4, 7.1, and 6.9 [6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 812.184 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.88%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 45.681 billion RMB, up 4.7% year-on-year. The Q2 average crude oil prices are expected to rise, with Brent crude averaging 85.0 USD/barrel and WTI averaging 80.6 USD/barrel, indicating continued revenue and profit growth [12][22]. Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, reaching 50% for the year. The mid-year dividend for 2023 was 0.21 RMB/share, and the year-end dividend was 0.23 RMB/share, resulting in an A-share dividend yield of 4.54% and a Hong Kong share yield of 6.37% [13][14]. Market Dynamics - The increase in refined oil prices is expected to enhance the profitability of the sales segment. As of June 28, 2024, the domestic gasoline supply price is 9,220 RMB/ton, up 390 RMB/ton from the beginning of the year, and the diesel supply price is 8,175 RMB/ton, up 380 RMB/ton [22].