CYPC(600900) 国泰君安·2024-07-04 23:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant increase in electricity generation in Q2 2024, with a total of 67.9 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.5%. This growth is attributed to favorable water conditions in the Yangtze River basin and a low comparative base from Q2 2023 [2][9]. - The report projects the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.43, 1.51, and 1.60 yuan respectively, with a target price adjustment to 34.32 yuan, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24 times for 2024 [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong dividend payout ratio of 70%, which is expected to enhance its valuation in a declining return environment for investors [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 78.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 88.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 27.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.0 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a growth of 28.3% [3]. - The report highlights a stable increase in cash dividends, which is seen as a valuable characteristic in the current market environment [2][3]. Electricity Generation Insights - The report details the electricity generation from various power stations, with notable increases such as 134 billion kWh from the Xiluodu station (up 69.2% year-on-year) and 222 billion kWh from the Three Gorges station (up 32.3% year-on-year) [2][9]. - The overall electricity generation growth is expected to continue into Q3 2024, supported by favorable water levels and a low comparative base from previous years [2][3]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading hydropower player in China, benefiting from a high dividend payout and a robust growth outlook, which is expected to attract investors seeking stable returns [2][3]. - The report notes that the company's current market capitalization is approximately 719.1 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 26.4 based on the latest share price [4][8].