NHPM(601882) 华创证券·2024-07-04 23:01Investment Rating - Target price: 27.7 RMB, with a "Strong Buy" rating [1][13] Core Views - The company is a leader in high-end CNC machine tools, leveraging its technological advantages and the synergy within the Haitian Group to achieve rapid growth [13][14] - The machine tool industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle due to multiple factors, including equipment renewal cycles, inventory cycles, and policy support [13][14] - The company is expanding its product line and global presence, with overseas revenue growing at a CAGR of 57% from 2015 to 2023 [13][14] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 3,323 million RMB in 2023 to 5,135 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 609 million RMB in 2023 to 985 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 17.5% [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.17 RMB in 2023 to 1.89 RMB in 2026 [2] Industry Analysis - China is the largest producer and consumer of machine tools globally, accounting for 31% of global production and 29% of global consumption in 2023 [13][14] - The CNC penetration rate in China is still low at 43%, compared to 80% in developed countries, indicating significant room for growth and import substitution [13][14] - The machine tool industry is expected to benefit from the renewal cycle, with the last peak in production occurring in 2011-2014, and the next cycle expected to begin soon [13][14] Company Strengths - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including CNC gantry machining centers, horizontal machining centers, and vertical machining centers, with gantry machining centers contributing 51% of revenue in 2023 [13][14] - The company has achieved vertical integration in key components, reducing reliance on external suppliers and improving cost efficiency [13][14] - The company is expanding its global footprint, with overseas revenue reaching 594 million RMB in 2023, up from 16 million RMB in 2015 [13][14] Growth Drivers - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, with its solutions tailored for NEV manufacturing [13][14] - The company is leveraging the experience of its sister company, Haitian International, in overseas markets to accelerate its global expansion [13][14] - The company is investing in R&D, with R&D expenses reaching 137 million RMB in 2023, and a stable R&D expense ratio of around 4% [13][14] Valuation and Forecast - The company is valued at 22x 2024E PE, with a target price of 27.7 RMB, based on its leading position in the domestic high-end CNC machine tool market and its potential in overseas markets [13][14] - Key assumptions for the forecast include successful expansion in the NEV sector, continued growth in overseas markets, and stable gross margins due to production optimization and economies of scale [13][14]