Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 299.88 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.05 to 1.25 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 51.78% to 80.69% [2][8]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow substantially, with total revenue expected to reach 11.63 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of 56.9% [4][9]. - The company is focusing on its "intelligent computing + data storage + server remanufacturing + AIoT smart terminal" business directions, which are expected to drive rapid revenue growth [8][9]. - The company has secured over 200 billion yuan in server procurement for 2025, indicating strong demand for its high-performance computing solutions [8][9]. - The report highlights the company's strategic partnerships with major suppliers in the data storage sector, which are expected to enhance its market position and revenue potential [8][9]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 7.41 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.63 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 56.9% [4][9]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 692 million yuan in 2024 to 1.18 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 70.8% [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.00 yuan in 2024 to 3.41 yuan in 2025 [4][9]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 109 in 2024 to 64 in 2025, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 299.88 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 1.05 to 1.25 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year growth of 51.78% to 80.69% [2][8]. - The anticipated net profit excluding non-recurring items is forecasted to be between 1.01 to 1.21 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 50.45% to 80.24% [2][8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its smart computing and data storage businesses, which are expected to drive revenue growth [2][8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7.41 billion CNY in 2024 to 11.63 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 59.1% [4][9]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 692 million CNY in 2024 to 1.18 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 140.8% [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.00 CNY in 2024 to 3.41 CNY in 2025 [4][9]. Business Development - The company plans to invest over 20 billion CNY in server procurement for 2025, indicating a strong demand for high-performance computing infrastructure [8][9]. - The company has established multiple partnerships for enterprise-level storage solutions, which are expected to enhance its market position [8][9]. - The server remanufacturing business is also projected to grow steadily, contributing positively to overall performance [8][9].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20260210 ❖ 市场概况：今日缩量回调，估值环比抬升 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 727.99 亿元，环比 减少 9.88%；万得全 A 总成交额为 21247.45 亿元，环比减少 6.41%；沪深两 市主力净流出 322.04 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 0.20bp 至 1.81%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 142.67 元，环比昨日下降 0.32%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 201.43 元，环比 上升 2.17%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 122.65 元，环比下降 0.05%；平衡型转债 的收盘价为 135.79 元，环比上升 0.22%。从转债收盘价分布情况看，130 元以 上高价券个数占比 77.96%，较昨日环比下降 0.12pct；占比变化最大的区间为 110-120（包含 120），占比 3.49%，较昨日上升 0.29pct；收盘价在 100 元以下 的个券有 0 只。价格中位数为 140.95 元，环比昨日下降 0.03%。 转债估值：估值抬升。百 ...

Core Insights - The report analyzes the factors influencing bond fund returns in Q4 2025, highlighting the impact of credit strategies on yields [7] - It identifies a recovery in credit bond allocation sentiment compared to Q3, with a notable preference for mid-term credit varieties [12][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of leveraging strategies and the contribution of credit downgrades to overall portfolio returns [23][27] Group 1: Performance of Bond Funds - The average return rate for bond funds in Q4 2025 was 0.55%, a significant improvement from -0.32% in Q3 [12] - Credit bond allocation's contribution to returns increased, with a correlation coefficient of 0.0027 in Q4, up from 0.0024 in Q3 [12] - Mid-term bonds (3-5 years) showed a strong contribution to portfolio returns, with a U-shaped relationship between return rates and the average remaining maturity of heavy holdings [17][20] Group 2: Bond Fund Holdings Overview - By the end of Q4 2025, the total scale of credit bonds held by bond funds reached 5.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 303.2 billion yuan from the previous quarter [34] - The proportion of credit bonds in bond fund holdings rose to 63.21%, up from 61.00% in the previous quarter [34] - The average yield of heavy holdings in various bond categories generally declined, indicating a shift in investment strategy towards more liquid varieties [2][3] Group 3: Credit Bond Strategy Analysis - The report notes an increase in the frequency of holdings in government and financial bonds, while credit bond holdings decreased, suggesting a strategy shift towards more liquid assets [2] - The average remaining maturity of heavy credit bond holdings slightly lengthened, indicating a flexible adjustment in duration structure [2] - The report categorizes heavy credit bond holdings by yield ranges, identifying specific opportunities for investment based on implied ratings [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Kehua Data (002335) with a target price of 71.20 CNY [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in AI infrastructure globally, with a focus on product innovation and expanding high-quality customer relationships [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 92.71 billion CNY, 127.03 billion CNY, and 165.45 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 5.62 billion CNY, 8.30 billion CNY, and 12.23 billion CNY [2][7]. - The company has shown strong growth in its renewable energy and data center segments, with significant increases in revenue from these areas [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 7,757 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.7%. This is expected to rebound to 19.5% in 2025, followed by 37.0% in 2026 and 30.2% in 2027 [2][17]. - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 315 million CNY, with a significant increase to 562 million CNY in 2025, and further growth to 830 million CNY in 2026 and 1,223 million CNY in 2027 [2][17]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.61 CNY in 2024 to 1.09 CNY in 2025, reaching 1.61 CNY in 2026 and 2.37 CNY in 2027 [2][17]. Business Segments - The company's three main business segments—renewable energy, data centers, and smart electric power—are projected to generate revenues of 18.52 billion CNY, 13.98 billion CNY, and 4.39 billion CNY respectively in the first half of 2025 [7]. - The share of revenue from the renewable energy segment is expected to increase from 46.51% in 2024 to 49.62% in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7]. - The overseas business segment has shown a growth trend, with revenue increasing from 310 million CNY in 2020 to 977 million CNY in 2023, despite a slight decline in 2024 [7].

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Trends - Since the beginning of 2026, among 26 major economies tracked, only 1 has cut rates (Israel) and 1 has raised rates (Australia), while the US, EU, and Japan have kept rates unchanged[2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may cut rates approximately 2 times in 2026, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to cut rates further as inflation has reached target levels[3][10] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates about 2 times in 2026, reflecting a complex economic situation characterized by "stagflation"[3][24] Group 2: Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's reserve balance has risen to $2.94 trillion, with a reserve-to-GDP ratio of approximately 9.6%, nearing the desired range of 10%-12%[4][44] - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and the interest on excess reserves (IOER) spread has stabilized at -1 basis point, indicating no further deterioration in liquidity conditions[5][45] - The liquidity environment remains stable, with US 10-year Treasury bid-ask spreads slightly increasing to around 0.4 basis points, and credit risk premiums remaining low across various markets[6][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Kehua Data (002335) with a target price of 71.20 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in AI infrastructure globally, with a focus on product innovation and expanding high-quality customer relationships [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 92.71 billion CNY, 127.03 billion CNY, and 165.45 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 5.62 billion CNY, 8.30 billion CNY, and 12.23 billion CNY [7]. - The company has shown strong growth in its renewable energy and data center segments, with significant increases in revenue from overseas operations [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline by 4.7% in 2024, followed by growth rates of 19.5%, 37.0%, and 30.2% in the subsequent years [2]. - Net profit is expected to decrease by 37.9% in 2024, then rebound with growth rates of 78.2%, 47.8%, and 47.3% in the following years [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.61 CNY in 2024, increasing to 1.09 CNY, 1.61 CNY, and 2.37 CNY by 2027 [2]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from the renewable energy sector is projected to increase from 46.51% in 2024 to 49.62% in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7]. - The data center business is also expected to see revenue improvements, contributing significantly to overall growth [7]. - The overseas business segment has shown a positive trend, with revenue increasing from 3.1 billion CNY in 2020 to 9.77 billion CNY in 2023, despite a slight decline in 2024 [7]. Market Position - Kehua Data is actively engaging in partnerships with major clients like Tencent to enhance its data center offerings, indicating a strategic focus on high-density computing infrastructure [7]. - The company is also exploring international markets, particularly targeting large overseas clients and their partners, to expand its product reach [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by over 5% compared to the benchmark index in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The release of the national standard for prepared dishes marks the beginning of a new phase of standardization in the industry, promoting high-quality development [7]. - The new regulations define prepared dishes as pre-packaged meals that require heating before consumption, excluding staple foods and ready-to-eat items, thereby establishing a clear framework for industry compliance [7]. - The standards prohibit the addition of preservatives and emphasize the principle of "no unnecessary additives," while also shortening the maximum shelf life to 12 months to address consumer concerns about freshness [7]. - The announcement encourages transparency in the food supply chain, allowing consumers to make informed choices based on clear labeling of food preparation methods [7]. - The trend towards industrialization in the food supply chain is expected to continue, with companies adopting centralized kitchens and efficient sourcing methods to meet consumer demands for safety and transparency [7]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the frozen food sector and customized meal preparation are likely to benefit from these regulatory changes, while smaller, lower-quality producers may be phased out [7]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 46,315.24 billion [4]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month, six months, and twelve months is 2.9%, 2.6%, and 5.0%, respectively, while the relative performance shows a decline of 12.4% over six months and 16.2% over twelve months compared to the benchmark [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pressure on cross - Spring Festival funds is controllable. The overall liquidity in February is expected to remain stable, with the risk of significant fluctuations being under control, although attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [4][71]. - In January, the central bank actively adjusted monetary policy tools. It cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The central bank also increased the scale of bond purchases to maintain liquidity [3][52]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - Month Review of the Capital Market and Liquidity 3.1.1 Capital Market Review - In January 2026, the overnight capital fluctuated in a slightly wider range compared to the previous month, showing an oscillatory upward trend with a fluctuation range of 0.18%. The 7D capital fluctuated in a narrower range and basically remained stable around 1.5%. There was no inversion between overnight and 7D funds [10]. - At the beginning of the month, the central bank significantly withdrew cross - year funds, and the capital operation was generally stable and loose. In the middle of the month, due to the maturity of the 6M reverse repurchase and the freezing of funds for new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, there was a brief friction in the capital market. Later, with the net injection of funds, the liquidity gradually stabilized. Towards the end of the month, the pressure on capital increase was relatively controllable [2][11]. - The capital stratification pressure in January was at a seasonally low level. The spread between R007 and DR007 decreased, and the spread between GC007 and DR007 also compressed, both at seasonally low levels [16]. - The volatility of overnight and 7D funds was at a seasonally low level, and the daily average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly compared to the previous month [23][24]. - Banks' net lending scale remained relatively high, and the net lending scale of money market funds first increased and then decreased [30]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In January, the base money increased by 1.6 billion yuan. The government deposit consumed about 1.1 trillion yuan of the base money, the central bank's net injection was 1.19 trillion yuan, and the foreign exchange funds continued to be slightly withdrawn by 7 billion yuan. After considering factors such as reserve freezing, cash withdrawal, and changes in non - financial institution deposits, the excess reserve at the end of the month decreased by about 692 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was about 1.3%, which was seasonally high. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was about 0.7%, close to the seasonal level [33]. - **Open - Market Operations**: In January, the central bank slightly withdrew short - term reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net injection of - 3.22 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 90 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.95 trillion yuan. The 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases had a net injection of 30 billion yuan in total. The central bank also increased its net purchase of national debt by 10 billion yuan and carried out operations such as treasury time deposits and PSL [39][44]. 3.2 1 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking - In January 2026, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25bp. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, as the exchange rate and net interest margin constraints have eased [3][52]. - The central bank continued its liquidity - caring approach, injecting 1 trillion yuan of medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchases. In January, the central bank increased its bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan [3][52]. - The central bank may further create tools to provide liquidity support for non - bank institutions, and may refer to the SRF and some phased tools. It also promotes the interconnection of financial markets and supports the construction of the offshore RMB market [55]. 3.3 2 - Month Gap Prediction 3.3.1 Rigid Gap - In February, as it is a month with relatively less deposit growth, the increase in general deposits will consume about 3.45 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF maturity is 30 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase maturity is 1.2 trillion yuan (70 billion yuan for 3M and 50 billion yuan for 6M), with 80 billion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase being renewed [58]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks - Due to the late Spring Festival this year, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits will slightly consume excess reserves in February. The "currency issuance" item may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 9.65 billion yuan [62]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors - The government deposit may consume about 44.34 billion yuan of liquidity in February. Considering factors such as bond payment, tax revenue, and fiscal expenditure, the government bond issuance is relatively large this month [67]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment - The overall capital gap pressure in February is similar to that in January, mainly coming from the pressure of cash withdrawal before the Spring Festival and government bond payment. However, considering the current liquidity status of the banking system and the central bank's operation idea of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the cross - year funds are expected to remain stable, and the risk of significant fluctuations is controllable [70][71]. - Since January, the central bank has actively operated monetary policy tools, with an incremental injection of 1 trillion yuan through MLF and 6M outright reverse repurchases, and an increase in the bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan. The 14D reverse repurchase was launched earlier before the Spring Festival, and the cross - Spring Festival pressure is controllable. However, the progress of cross - Spring Festival funds in the inter - bank market is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [5][73].

Group 1: Liquidity - The issuance of equity public funds has decreased to 8.42 billion units, down from 32.79 billion units, but remains at a historically high level[8] - The net outflow of margin financing has increased to 52.1 billion CNY, marking a 2% percentile over the past three years[13] - The net inflow of southbound funds has surged to 49.83 billion CNY, reaching a historical high and representing a 96% percentile[40] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 17 percentage points to 49%[46] - The trading heat for the liquor sector has risen by 10 percentage points to 15%[53] - The trading heat for the communication sector has also increased by 10 percentage points to 47%[66] - The trading heat for the home appliance sector has decreased by 12 percentage points to 47%[53] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The net inflow of retail investor funds in the A-share market was 162.44 billion CNY, a decrease of 54.4 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 87.4% percentile over the past five years[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.5% on February 2, leading to an increase in self-media search interest in A-shares[73]