证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆资金净流出规模续创25年4月以来新高 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2026年2月24日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 证 券 研 究 报 告 资金流动性：1）资金供给端：偏股型公募新发规模重回历史高位、杠杆资金净流出规模续创25年4月以来新高、 股票型ETF净流出规模扩大、回购金额收缩至历史低位；2）资金需求端：股权融资/产业资本净减持规模均小幅 扩张、南向资金净流入收缩至历史中高位。 | 资金供给 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资金供给主体(亿元) | 上 期 | 本 期 | 近 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 加科思-B（01167.HK）深度研究报告 强推（首次） pan-KRAS 抑制剂价值重估空间大 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 156 | 234 | 627 | 508 | | 同比增速(%) | 145.1% | 50.5% | 167.6% | -19.1% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | -156 | -15 | 313 | 192 | | 同比增速(%) | 56.6% | 90.7% | 2,258.6% | -38.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | -0.20 | -0.02 | 0.40 | 0.24 | | 市盈率(倍) | -29 | -308 | 14 | 23 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 23 日收盘价 港股公司 生物医药Ⅲ 2026 年 02 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the equity market generally performs well, with small - cap and growth stocks having relative advantages. The Wind All - A Index usually has about 15 - 20 trading days of upward movement, with an average increase of about 5%. Small - cap stocks maintain an advantage for about 30 trading days, and growth stocks have an advantage for about 15 trading days. Technology and growth sectors may be the main trading directions, but small - cap stocks may be more suitable for short - term trading due to high valuations [1][10]. - Convertible bonds also perform well after the Spring Festival, but mainly focus on digesting high valuations. After the valuation increase from late December to before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to take profits at the right time [1][20]. - The seasonality of convertible bond terms is not obvious. The frequency of forced redemptions is relatively low in the second quarter, and the probability and frequency of downward revisions are more related to the equity market. Attention should be paid to the possible forced redemption wave in March [1][21]. - The issuance of convertible bonds has obvious seasonality, mainly concentrated around the annual and semi - annual reports. It is expected that there will be a relatively dense listing of convertible bonds around April 2026 [2][27]. - In terms of convertible bond strategies in March, it is recommended to take profits at the right time and maintain a balanced allocation. Be cautious about new and sub - new bonds, and explore near - maturity bonds with strong conversion demands. Pay attention to undervalued individual bonds in the medium - and low - parity range [3] Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Historical Seasonality of Equity and Convertible Bonds after the Spring Festival - **Equity Market**: After the Spring Festival, the Wind All - A Index generally rises, with an average increase of about 5% in about 15 - 20 trading days. Small - cap stocks have an advantage for about 30 trading days, and growth stocks have an advantage for about 15 trading days. Technology and growth may be the main trading directions, and small - cap stocks are suitable for short - term trading due to high valuations [1][10]. - **Convertible Bonds**: They perform well after the Spring Festival, benefiting from the strength of the equity market. However, they mainly digest high valuations after the pre - festival increase. It is recommended to take profits at the right time [1][20]. - **Terms**: The seasonality of forced redemptions and downward revisions is not obvious. The frequency of forced redemptions is low in the second quarter. Pay attention to the forced redemption wave in March [1][21]. - **Issuance**: The issuance has obvious seasonality, concentrated around the annual and semi - annual reports. It is expected that there will be a large number of convertible bonds listed around April [2][27] II. Convertible Bond Strategy: Take Profits at the Right Time in March and Maintain a Balanced Allocation - **Equity Market Outlook**: After a brief adjustment, the A - share market rebounded before the Spring Festival. In March, the equity market is expected to perform well. It is recommended to focus on technology and growth sectors, as well as sectors such as non - ferrous metals, cycles, energy, and mid - stream manufacturing [37]. - **Convertible Bond Valuation and Strategy**: The convertible bond valuation reached a new high. It is recommended to take profits at the right time. Be cautious about new and sub - new bonds, and explore near - maturity bonds with strong conversion demands. Adopt a balanced allocation strategy and pay attention to undervalued individual bonds in the medium - and low - parity range [3][40][41] III. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Weekly, and Valuations Increased (一) Weekly Market Performance: The Convertible Bond Market Rose, and Most Equity Sectors Performed Strongly - **Index Performance**: Most major stock indexes rose last week. The CSI 300 Index rose 0.36%, the CSI 500 rose 1.88%, the CSI 1000 rose 1.90%, the CSI 2000 rose 1.17%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%. The convertible bond market followed the small - and medium - cap stocks [46]. - **Concept Performance**: Different concepts had different performances. Glass fiber, contribution to rising points, copper - clad laminates, etc. rose, while space photovoltaics, anti - tariff, etc. fell [49] (二) Valuation Performance: The Premium Rates of Convertible Bonds of All Ratings and Sizes Increased - **Convertible Bond Type Performance**: The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds increased by 11.64%, that of debt - biased convertible bonds increased by 0.74%, and that of balanced convertible bonds increased by 0.02%. The proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range increased significantly [52]. - **Rating, Size, and Parity Interval**: The premium rates of convertible bonds of all ratings and sizes increased. The AAA - rated bonds increased by 3.1pct, and the bonds with a size of over 5 billion yuan increased by 3.47pct. The premium rate of the over - 130 - yuan parity interval increased by 5.27pct [52] IV. Terms and Supply: Three Convertible Bonds Announced Forced Redemption, and the Total Newly Promoted Scale was about 2.475 billion yuan (一) Terms: Three Convertible Bonds Announced Forced Redemption, and the Board of Bairun Convertible Bond Proposed a Downward Revision - **Forced Redemption**: As of February 13, Linuo, Xinfu, and Zhonghe convertible bonds announced early redemption. Shuangliang convertible bond triggered the redemption conditions but did not announce. Many convertible bonds announced non - early redemption or expected to meet the forced redemption conditions [4][71]. - **Downward Revision**: Bairun convertible bond proposed a downward revision, Longda convertible bond announced the downward revision result. Three convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and ten convertible bonds were expected to trigger the downward revision [4][71] (二) Primary Market: No Convertible Bonds were Issued Last Week, and the Total Newly Promoted Scale was about 2.475 billion yuan - **Issuance and Listing**: No convertible bonds were issued last week, and Longjian convertible bond was listed with a scale of 100 million yuan. There are 376 issued and non - expired convertible bonds with a balance of 526.565 billion yuan. Aiwei convertible bond will be listed on February 26 [5][74]. - **New Progress**: Five companies added board proposals, one company passed the general meeting, three companies passed the CSRC review committee, and no company was approved by the CSRC. As of February 13, seven listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuance with a proposed scale of 536.3 million yuan. Four companies newly passed the CSRC review committee with a total scale of 696.6 million yuan, and five companies added board proposals with a total scale of 1.242 billion yuan [5][76][81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire 70% of Huilian Electronics for no more than 700 million yuan, and 70% of WINWIN HITECH (THAILAND) CO., LTD. for no more than 28 million yuan, marking its entry into the PCB drill needle sector [2]. - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's product line in PCB specialized tools and to capitalize on high-growth areas driven by AI and advanced communication technologies [4][8]. - The report projects significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 2.612 billion yuan in 2025, 3.798 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.216 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.3%, 45.4%, and 37.3% respectively [4][9]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow to 235 million yuan in 2025, 386 million yuan in 2026, and 515 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 30.3%, 63.8%, and 33.6% [4][9]. - The target price for the stock is set at 73.44 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 48 times for 2026 [4][8]. Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.862 billion yuan, 2.612 billion yuan, 3.798 billion yuan, and 5.216 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.2%, 40.3%, 45.4%, and 37.3% [4][9]. - The expected net profit for the same years is 180 million yuan, 235 million yuan, 386 million yuan, and 515 million yuan, with growth rates of 10.9%, 30.3%, 63.8%, and 33.6% [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.72 yuan, 0.93 yuan, 1.53 yuan, and 2.04 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][9].

证 券 研 究 报 告 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 23 日收盘价 港股公司 生物医药Ⅲ 2026 年 02 月 24 日 目标价：11.26 港元 当前价：6.37 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘浩 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520120002 加科思-B（01167.HK）深度研究报告 强推（首次） pan-KRAS 抑制剂价值重估空间大 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 156 | 234 | 627 | 508 | | 同比增速(%) | 145.1% | 50.5% | 167.6% | -19.1% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | -156 | -15 | 313 | 192 | | 同比增速(%) | 56.6% | 90.7% | 2,258.6% | -38.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | -0.20 | - ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Significant style shift in overseas stock markets, particularly in the U.S., with value stocks outperforming growth stocks[5] - As of February 20, the value long/short hedge fund strategy index rose by 9.7%, while the growth long/short hedge fund strategy index fell by 1.6%, resulting in a performance gap exceeding 10%[7] - The equal-weighted S&P 500 index's monthly performance difference compared to the market-cap weighted S&P 500 index reached 3.4%, the highest level since 2010[16] Group 2: Risk and Returns - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 4.2% as of February 13, which is one standard deviation below the 16-year average, indicating potential for valuation uplift[19] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was 29 basis points, 59 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[21] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds was 28.7 as of February 13, above the 16-year average, suggesting increased attractiveness of equity assets relative to fixed income[29] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Indicators - The copper-gold price ratio reached 2.5 as of February 20, indicating a convergence with the offshore RMB exchange rate of 6.9, suggesting alignment in signals from both indicators[27] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap was -16.8 basis points as of February 20, indicating increased offshore dollar financing pressure relief due to higher usage of the Fed's standing repo facility[24]

证券研究报 告 宏观研究 【每周经济观察】 春节假期海外四大要闻——海外周报第 128 期 1、股市：全球主要股指多数上涨，韩股、法股、英股涨幅领先。2 月 16 日 ~20日，韩国综合指数、法国 CAC40、富时 100、欧洲斯托克 600指数、纳斯 达克、德国 DAX、标普 500、MSCI 新兴市场指数和道琼斯分别上涨 5.5%、 2.5%、2.3%、2.1%、1.5%、1.4%、1.1%、1.0%、 0.8%和 0.3%；恒生指数和 日经 225 分别下跌 0.6%和 0.2%。 2、债券：除美债利率外，全球主要 10 年期国债收益率多数下行。2 月 16 日 ~20 日，10 年期日债、法债、英债和意债收益率分别下行 6.1bps、3.8bps、 2.7bps 和 2.3bps；10 年期美债收益率上行 4.0bps。 3、大宗：全球主要大宗商品多数上涨。2 月 16 日~20 日，布伦特原油、WTI 原油、伦敦现货白银、伦敦现货黄金和 LME 期铜分别上涨 5.9%、5.7%、 4.1%、1.2%和 0.0%。 4、汇率：主要货币中日元、英镑跌幅较大。2 月 16 日~20 日，日元和英镑分 别下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [47]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season has seen a record high in cross-regional personnel flow, with an estimated total of 5.08 billion trips in the first 20 days, averaging 250 million trips per day, which is a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [9][10]. - The aviation sector has shown strong performance in both passenger volume and ticket prices, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume and a 3.3% increase in average ticket prices during the same period [10][11]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by two main trends: "secondary travel" and "concentrated return trips," driven by a later Spring Festival and longer holiday period [12][13]. Summary by Sections Passenger Volume and Pricing - In the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.376 million, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 1003 yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - The domestic average passenger load factor was 85.1%, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [11]. Market Dynamics - Six listed airlines collectively withdrew 5 aircraft in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply constraint in the industry [26]. - The report highlights that except for Spring Airlines, all other major airlines have shown negative year-on-year growth in capacity deployment, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth [26]. Demand and Future Outlook - The demand structure in the aviation industry is improving, with a rebound in business travel sentiment since September 2025 [34]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, is expected to boost cross-border travel demand [34]. - High passenger load factors are anticipated to lead to increased price elasticity, with the potential for significant price increases in 2026 [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines for potential elasticity release, as well as low-cost carrier Spring Airlines for its core competitive advantages [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the shipping industry, indicating an expectation of growth exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6]. Core Insights - The VLCC market is experiencing unprecedented high sentiment driven by geopolitical risk premiums, aggressive capacity expansion by Changjin Shipping, and strengthened sanctions [1][9]. - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continues to elevate risk premiums, with Brent crude oil futures reaching $71.76 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 5.9% [2][19]. - Changjin Shipping has rapidly expanded its fleet, becoming the largest VLCC operator globally, controlling 118 VLCCs, which corresponds to a market share of 16% [2][20][21]. - Strengthened sanctions are increasing the demand for compliant trade, with Venezuela's oil shifting towards compliant markets and India committing to stop purchasing Russian oil, which could add 1% to global tanker trade [3][39]. - The EU's proposal for a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian oil could necessitate the transfer of more compliant vessels into shadow fleets, impacting supply dynamics [4][43]. Summary by Sections Market Review - VLCC rates have surged to their highest levels in nearly a decade, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE reaching $142,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 24.5% [9][12]. - The stock performance of tanker companies has been strong, with notable increases during the holiday period [16]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing US-Iran negotiations have not yielded clear outcomes, maintaining military tensions and affecting oil transport routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [2][19]. - Changjin Shipping's aggressive market entry reflects confidence in the tanker market's high profitability, with a significant increase in the concentration of top VLCC owners [21]. Sanctions and Compliance - The report highlights a shift in the oil market towards compliance due to increased enforcement of sanctions, with Venezuela's oil exports moving towards compliant channels [3][38]. - The EU's proposed ban on maritime services for Russian oil could lead to a significant increase in the demand for compliant vessels [4][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook for the oil transportation market, with expectations of continued demand growth and limited supply, recommending specific companies within the sector [5][46].

Market Performance - Global major stock indices mostly rose, with the Korean Composite Index, French CAC40, and FTSE 100 leading with increases of 5.5%, 2.5%, and 2.3% respectively from February 16 to 20[2] - Major 10-year government bond yields mostly declined, with Japanese, French, British, and Italian bonds down by 6.1bps, 3.8bps, 2.7bps, and 2.3bps respectively, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.0bps[2] - Most major commodities saw price increases, with Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rising by 5.9% and 5.7% respectively during the same period[2] Currency Movements - The Japanese yen and British pound experienced significant declines, falling by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, while the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.9%[3] Geopolitical Events - The U.S.-Iran crisis escalated, with WTI crude oil prices increasing from approximately $62.33 to $66.39, marking a 6.5% rise, and Brent crude oil rising by 6.4% to $71.76 due to military tensions in the region[3] - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated a neutral yet hawkish stance, with market expectations for a potential rate cut of about 60 basis points this year, reflecting a slight easing compared to previous expectations[4] Legal and Trade Developments - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's "emergency" tariffs, leading to a significant shift in trade policy, with Trump announcing a new 10% tariff on global imports for 150 days[5] - Following the Supreme Court's decision, the market reacted positively, with the Nasdaq index rising by 0.90% due to eased supply chain pressures[7] Economic Outlook - Japan's new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, emphasized a "responsible active fiscal policy," proposing significant tax cuts and public investments, which are expected to boost Japan's GDP growth forecast for 2026[8]