CYPC(600900) 申万宏源·2024-07-05 10:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has reported a significant increase in electricity generation, with a total of approximately 120.6 billion kWh for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.86%. In Q2 2024, the generation increased by 42.54% compared to the same period last year [4] - Improved water inflow conditions are supporting high electricity generation. After a dry period from 2H22 to 1H23, water inflow has gradually increased in 2H23. The total water inflow for the first five months of this year in Hubei Province reached 1,333 hours, a year-on-year increase of 395 hours [4] - The increase in electricity generation is expected to drive rapid growth in the company's performance. The additional electricity generation in the first half of 2024 is projected to contribute a pre-tax profit increase of approximately 4.33 billion yuan [4] - The company benefits from reduced financial costs and improved investment income, with financial expenses decreasing by approximately 10% year-on-year in Q1 due to debt optimization [4] - The company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 33.25 billion, 35.12 billion, and 37.56 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 20, and 19 times [4] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of July 4, 2024, is 29.39 yuan, with a one-year high/low of 29.65/21.14 yuan [2] - The market capitalization of circulating A shares is 705.573 billion yuan [2] Financial Data - As of March 31, 2024, the company's net asset per share is 8.40 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.89% [3] - The total revenue for 2023 is reported at 78.112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 27.239 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.8% [5] Profitability Forecast - The company expects a significant increase in operating profit, with projections for 2024E at 39.597 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 22.1% [6] - The earnings per share for 2024E is forecasted to be 1.36 yuan [6]