ENERGY TECHNOLOGY(002812) Soochow Securities·2024-07-08 06:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company released its 24H1 earnings forecast, with a projected net profit attributable to the parent company of 260-360 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75%-82% [3] - The company's 24Q2 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 100-200 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74%-87%, with a mid-point forecast of 150 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% [3] - The company's 24Q2 non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 70-170 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 76%-90%, with a quarter-on-quarter change of -53% to +14% [3] - The company's 24Q2 performance is under pressure due to losses in dry-process separators and aluminum-plastic film businesses, as well as consulting fees, which together affect profits by over 100 million yuan [3] - The company's 24Q2 shipments increased by 20% quarter-on-quarter, and the company's 24-year shipments are expected to maintain a growth rate of over 30% [3] - The company's 24H1 shipments are estimated to be 2.7-2.8 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with 24Q2 shipments expected to be around 1.5 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of about 30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 20% [3] - The company's 24-year shipments are expected to reach 6.5 billion square meters, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of over 30%, and the company's 25-26 year shipments are expected to maintain a growth rate of 25%-30% [3] - The company's 24Q2 single-square-meter operating profit is stable, and the company's 24-year single-square-meter profit is expected to drop to 0.1 yuan+ [3] - The company's overseas capacity has a first-mover advantage, with Hungary's coating capacity contributing from 24H2, and the company's US coating capacity is expected to be released in 25, with profits expected to gradually recover in 25-26 [3] - The company's 24-26 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 900 million yuan, 1.34 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 64%, an increase of 48%, and an increase of 72%, with corresponding PEs of 33, 23, and 13 times [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company's 24-26 operating income is expected to be 13.935 billion yuan, 17.307 billion yuan, and 21.911 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.72%, 24.19%, and 26.61% [2] - The company's 24-26 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 903.89 million yuan, 1.341 billion yuan, and 2.305 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -64.23%, 48.36%, and 71.91% [2] - The company's 24-26 EPS is expected to be 0.92 yuan, 1.37 yuan, and 2.36 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PEs of 33.45, 22.54, and 13.11 times [2] Financial Data - The company's 24-26 operating income is expected to be 13.935 billion yuan, 17.307 billion yuan, and 21.911 billion yuan, respectively [8] - The company's 24-26 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 903.89 million yuan, 1.341 billion yuan, and 2.305 billion yuan, respectively [8] - The company's 24-26 EPS is expected to be 0.92 yuan, 1.37 yuan, and 2.36 yuan, respectively [8] - The company's 24-26 P/E is expected to be 33.45, 22.54, and 13.11 times, respectively [8] - The company's 24-26 P/B is expected to be 0.94, 0.90, and 0.85 times, respectively [9] - The company's 24-26 ROE is expected to be 2.57%, 3.68%, and 5.98%, respectively [9] - The company's 24-26 ROIC is expected to be 2.78%, 3.67%, and 5.67%, respectively [9] Market Data - The company's closing price is 30.92 yuan [5] - The company's one-year low/high price is 30.51/99.10 yuan [5] - The company's P/B is 1.12 times [5] - The company's circulating A-share market value is 25.513 billion yuan [5] - The company's total market value is 30.232 billion yuan [5] Basic Data - The company's net asset per share is 27.54 yuan [6] - The company's asset-liability ratio is 38.61% [6] - The company's total share capital is 977.76 million shares [6] - The company's circulating A-share capital is 825.14 million shares [6]