Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 华鑫证券·2024-07-13 10:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 is expected to show significant growth, driven by the recovery of production capacity and rising aluminum prices. The forecasted net profit for the first half of 2024 is between 2.4 billion to 2.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.42% to 71.62% [4][5]. - The company is the largest green low-carbon aluminum supplier in China, and the market is beginning to recognize the premium for green aluminum. The company plans to leverage this advantage to convert its green brand benefits into economic returns [5]. Summary by Sections Basic Data - Current stock price is 14.09 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 48.9 billion yuan and total shares outstanding of 3,468 million [1][2]. Market Performance - The average price of A00 aluminum in the first half of 2024 was 19,781 yuan per ton, an increase of 6.99% year-on-year. The average price of alumina was 3,505 yuan per ton, up 12.76% year-on-year [5]. Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024 to 2026 are 48.765 billion, 49.592 billion, and 50.419 billion yuan, respectively. The projected net profits for the same years are 5.046 billion, 5.418 billion, and 5.791 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.7, 9.0, and 8.4 [6][9]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates a significant increase in net profit for Q2 2024, estimated between 1.236 billion to 1.436 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 96.15% to 127.89% [5]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 16.9% in 2024, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 15.5% [9]. Strategic Positioning - The company is actively enhancing communication with power management departments to accelerate the recovery of its electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which has led to a substantial increase in production load rates [5]. - The company aims to capitalize on the favorable conditions created by the national push for a green low-carbon economy and the EU's carbon border tax [5].