盐津铺子：品类渠道共振，淡季彰显韧性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next six months compared to the CSI 300 index [1][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.4-2.5 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.72%-32.00%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 310-330 million yuan, with a growth rate of 26.18%-34.32% [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product categories and brand building, which is expected to drive sales growth. The report highlights the successful performance of specific products like quail eggs and vegetarian dishes [2][13]. - The company is actively developing various packaging formats to meet diverse consumer needs and is strengthening its supply chain management and organizational efficiency [2][13]. Revenue Analysis - The company anticipates a revenue of 1.177-1.277 billion yuan for Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.5%-27.5%. The net profit for the same period is expected to be 150-170 million yuan, with a growth of 12.1%-27.0% [1]. - The report notes that the company is focusing on seven core product categories and has made significant progress in product upgrades and brand recognition [1][2]. Profit Analysis - The gross profit margin is expected to improve in Q2 2024, driven by the strong performance of high-margin products. However, the growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders may slow due to increased stock payment expenses [1][2]. - The report estimates that the net profit margin for Q2 2024 will decrease by 0.33 percentage points to 13.07% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in channel structure and increased stock payment expenses [1]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.263 billion yuan, 6.425 billion yuan, and 7.746 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.9%, 22.1%, and 20.5% [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 667 million yuan, 853 million yuan, and 1.053 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 31.9%, 27.8%, and 23.5% [2][4].