火炬电子：MLCC需求修复，特种材料爆发在即

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of 24.05 CNY and a total market cap of 11.02 billion CNY [2] - The stock code is 603678 with a 52-week high/low of 35.65/16.3 CNY [2] - Free float market cap is 11.02 billion CNY with 458.34 million free float shares [2] Core Views - The company is a core supplier of military and civilian MLCCs, with civilian products expected to see both volume and price increases, while military products are set for a beta rebound [11] - New materials business is poised for significant growth, with potential for profit doubling [11] - Revenue for 2023 was 3.504 billion CNY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 313 million CNY [11] - Self-produced components (mainly military) contributed 1.12 billion CNY in revenue, trade sector (civilian) contributed 2.193 billion CNY, and new materials contributed 160 million CNY [11] - Gross margins for self-produced components, trade sector, and new materials were 66.83%, 10.46%, and 55.59% respectively [11] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 4.13 billion, 4.815 billion, and 5.48 billion CNY respectively [19] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 462 million, 600 million, and 705 million CNY respectively [19] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.01, 1.31, and 1.54 CNY respectively [19] - PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 23.88, 18.36, and 15.63 respectively [19] Industry and Market Trends - Global passive component industry is experiencing a new wave of price increases, with some products expected to rise by 10-20% due to the upcoming smartphone season, PC market recovery, and a 30% surge in silver prices [10] - MLCC demand is expected to recover, driven by terminal product upgrades and the popularization of 5G communication [27] - Companies with technological advantages and high-end products are expected to benefit from the price increases [27] New Materials Business - The company's new materials business is expected to grow significantly, with SiC fiber and composite materials being ideal for aerospace applications due to their high-temperature resistance and stealth properties [17] - The company has invested in downstream ceramic matrix composite material projects, which are expected to drive demand [17] - The new materials business is projected to contribute significantly to future earnings, with potential for profit doubling [11] Military and Civilian Products - Military products, particularly MLCCs, are expected to rebound as demand recovers and procurement resumes [27] - Civilian products, especially MLCCs, are expected to benefit from long-term demand driven by 5G and terminal product upgrades [27] - The company's subsidiaries, Tianji Technology and Fujian Millimeter, have shown strong performance, with new products and strategic agreements paving the way for future growth [27] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 3.504 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.5% YoY [19] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 318 million CNY, a significant decrease of 60.3% YoY [19] - Gross margin for 2023 was 30.6%, down from 42.4% in 2022 [19] - ROE for 2023 was 5.9%, down from 15.2% in 2022 [19]