Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [4] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is gradually recovering, with a slight expected increase in revenue for Q2 2024, projected to rise by 0.5% year-on-year to 289.3 billion yuan [1] - The company's self-operated business has strong barriers, and the POP ecosystem construction is progressing steadily, enhancing user consumption experience and stimulating demand [2] - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan, with approximately 700 million USD repurchased as of May 15, 2024, indicating potential for valuation reassessment [3] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Environment - The retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of 2024 have shown a steady recovery, reaching 235,969 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] - Online retail sales reached 70,991 billion yuan, growing by 9.8% year-on-year, indicating a stronger performance compared to overall retail sales [1] Company Performance - The company is expected to achieve a non-GAAP net profit of 10.79 billion yuan in Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [2] - The company has seen significant growth in its 618 shopping festival, with transaction volume and order quantity reaching new highs, and over 83 brands achieving cumulative sales exceeding 1 billion yuan [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 1,152.7 billion yuan, 1,256.7 billion yuan, and 1,318.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.3%, 9.0%, and 4.9% respectively [3] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period are adjusted to 37.3 billion yuan, 42.7 billion yuan, and 44.6 billion yuan, indicating a positive outlook for profitability [3]
京东集团-SW：24Q2业绩前瞻：收入增长或短期承压，利润有望向好发展